Top Breakouts Past Pick No. 120

We have covered the best and worst values heading into Draft Day, as well as broken down every single team and all their relevant players. But the best way to cover ourselves in glory is to nail breakout picks in the mid and late rounds. These are my three favorite breakout players going after pick No. 120 who I believe will be drafted much higher than this in 2024.

Skyy Moore, WR, Chiefs (ADP: 121)

Moore was a second rounder last season stepping into an offense that had just lost Tyreek Hill, one of the most devastating receivers in the game, and one who vacated an insane target share from the best QB in football. Moore…didn’t really deliver. He drew just 33 targets all season, catching 22 of them for 250 yards and failing to find the end zone. In fact, no one stepped up into the “Tyreek Hill role,” because only Hill can do what he does. Juju Smith-Schuster was the most heavily-targeted wide receiver, and he’s since moved on to New England. Smith-Schuster’s absence, though, is a big reason why Moore can thrive.

Reception Perception saw Moore’s season as not a failure, but an impressive display of development. Kansas City played Moore all over the formation, and when he did get on the field they made sure to get it to him, targeting him on 27.7% of his routes. He also posted a very surprising 73.1% success rate vs. press coverage, despite his slight 5’10, 195 lb. frame. He was very successful vs. zone coverage (78.9%) and he also proved capable of beating man (68.5%). Both of those success rates should rise moving forward as he gains comfort in the scheme, knows his roles, and sees more playing time. Much of the focus when it comes to Chiefs receivers is on Kadarius Toney, a very flashy playmaker they acquired in season in 2022 whose contributions were limited due to injury. He profiles similarly to Moore in some ways, and because we’ve seen him put up gaudy games for the Giants when heavily targeted, he gets managers more excited. I even wrote here about his potential to be elite, but this same article notes his abysmal success rates vs. man and press coverage. Combine that with his inability to stay on the field, and questions about his maturity, and Moore seems to be a much safer bet to be on the field for the Chiefs.

Peeping their route trees shows that Toney was really used on short passes (14.2% of routes to the flat, 6.6% screens, 19.1% slants) or on bombs (14.2% nines) whereas Moore was treated like a receiver (12.3% digs, 17.7% curls etc.). A more likely outcome than Toney breaking out is Toney impacting games like Mecole Hardman used to on limited, designed touches that he breaks off for chunk plays due to his athleticism. With Moore, he can become the Chiefs’ most-targeted receiver, and a complement to the true pass-catching alpha, Travis Kelce.

Nico Collins, WR, Texans (ADP: 164)

Collins had some buzz heading into last season, but put up nearly identical stats to his rookie campaign, which was decidedly meh for fantasy managers. But this time Collins put up the numbers in four fewer games due to injury, and showed signs that he’s close to breaking out and becoming a very relevant fantasy receiver. Collins rounded out PFF’s Top 35 receivers, and while he wasn’t necessarily the most well-rounded receiver, he’s becoming pretty dominant as an outside pass-catcher. He has averaged 13.2 yards per catch in his first two seasons, so efficiency is in his favor, a key factor in an offense that figures to run quite a bit when they can. He won regularly vs. man coverage (71% success, 64th percentile), and he dominated press as well (74.5% success, 74th percentile). He hammered defenses on nine routes and corners, but also posted an 82.9% success rate on curls and a 70.7% success rate on digs. He struggled with outs, posts and comebacks, but he doesn’t need to be a complete technician to help our rosters.

It's also important to remember that Collins has caught passes from the following QBs: Davis Mills, Tyrod Taylor, Kyle Allen and Jeff Driskel. These are not good QBs, and he should be upgrading significantly in 2023 with No. 2 overall pick C.J. Stroud. Sure, Stroud will experience growing pains, but he’s levels above the others talent-wise, and he’s been building rapport with Collins all summer. This offense is littered with potentially fantasy relevant pass-catchers, but only Collins fits the traditional outside receiver role. He’s secured in the offense, has flashed the talent, and may finally have a legit QB.

Brock Purdy, QB, 49ers (ADP: 157)

Purdy isn’t really getting any respect from us, despite taking the reins of the 49ers offense and keeping such a tight hold that they actually traded away the 2021 No. 3 overall pick (Trey Lance) for a fourth round pick. While Purdy wasn’t exactly Steve Young last season – 152.7 yards per game is not awesome – his efficiency was crazy. He put up a wild 7.6% TD rate, throwing two or more touchdown passes in six straight games to end the season. You can say that Kyle Shanahan’s offense is more responsible for that than Purdy’s natural ability, and I’d say, maybe, but who cares? Shanahan is still coaching the 49ers, and Purdy is still surrounded by Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffery, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk. Derik Klassen at Reception Perception wrote up Purdy and noted serious weaknesses, namely timing and arm strength. To me, these are big problems should he sign elsewhere and be relied upon to drive an offense’s success. Here, Shanahan is scheming up easier passes for him, and these talented skill players can bail him out of tough/bad throws.

This will continue to be an offense that relies heavily on the run, so Purdy’s not going to throw up gaudy passing numbers, but I do believe that he can maintain a lot of that touchdown efficiency due to the scheme and embarrassment of riches in his arsenal. Purdy is a very attractive option for managers who still want to wait late on their QB.