Leap To Elite: Chris Olave is Ready To Be a True Fantasy WR1

Chris Olave was one of the best rookie wide receivers in what was a special class in 2022. Entering his second season, Olave has a chance to go from impressive rookie to legitimate fantasy WR1.

The Saints traded up in the draft to secure Olave, which many found a puzzling decision because the Saints did not seem to be in a position to contend. That was a correct assessment; the Saints were not real contenders, but they did lock in a special receiver who figures to be the focal point of their offense for years to come. With Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston at QB, Olave put together a 72-catch, 1,042 yard season with four touchdowns in 15 games. Olave averaged a robust 14.5 yards per reception, and 14.2 average depth of target (ADOT), establishing himself right out of the gate as a dangerous deep threat. That will come in handy for new QB Derek Carr, whom the Saints brought in this offseason in an effort to solidify their identity offensively, and make the most of Olave’s gifts.

Deep threats are tremendously valuable to NFL teams, and exciting to watch, but they don’t typically make for the most consistent fantasy options. Olave is much more than a deep threat. Per Reception Perception, Olave was dominant in just about every aspect of receiving. He beat man coverage 75.8% of the time (83rd percentile), press 77.5% of the time (83rd percentile) and zone 81.2% of the time (73rd percentile). He entered the league as a known route technician, and was considered the most pro-ready of the 2022 rookie crop; he proved that accurate, as he posted 80% or greater success rates on curls, digs, corners and slants. He was just below that mark on out patterns (78.1%), and at a healthy 70% success rate on posts. And despite all that elite route running, Olave’s most common route was the nine, which he succeeded on 60.4% of the time. PFF was similarly impressed with Olave’s work, ranking him inside the Top 15.

The biggest question mark regarding Olave’s ability to go from locked-in WR2 to true fantasy WR1 will be can he post big TD numbers? Of course, TDs are fickle, and him only scoring four as a rookie doesn’t necessarily mean anything. Olave is on the smaller side, but he did win 70% of his contested catch opportunities. The bigger issue is that the Saints have a number of proven weapons near the end zone that could be prioritized over him. Michael Thomas can’t stay healthy, but when he was last season he scored three times in as many games. TE Juwan Johnson was an absolute red zone beast, scoring an absurd seven TDs on 42 receptions. And of course, the NFL’s premier “offensive weapon,” Taysom Hill, always lurks as an option to steal painted area glory from all his teammates in a variety of ways. Still, that’s a nitpick, especially since Olave has shown he can score from well outside the red zone at any given time. Fantasy managers will likely be pretty excited about Olave come draft day, so when the time comes, don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on him early. He’s a pretty sure bet to be a very valuable asset.