On The Move: Breaking Down Darren Waller on the Giants

There will be players switching teams that have bigger profiles and get more attention, but there may not be a more interesting player move for fantasy football this offseason than Darren Waller being traded to the Giants.

On paper, it makes all the sense. The Giants had a competent, but low-output offense last year under first-year head coach Brian Daboll. That description undersells the job he did though, because this was like Tony Stark building the first Iron Man suit in an Afghan cave out of scraps. Yes, the G-Men did have a sturdy offensive line and a resurgent stud at RB in Saquon Barkley, but that was it. Their QB, Daniel Jones, was playing out the string on a rookie contract that the Giants declined the fifth-year option on. Their top receivers were Kenny Golladay, a historic free agent bust, and Kadarius Toney, who was playing with hamstrings made out of 50-year-old rubber bands. They made the postseason with Barkley leading the team in targets with 76, and a receiving corps in which no player had more than 60 catches. Richie James and Isaiah Hodgins paced the team with four receiving touchdowns, and Hodgins began the season being cut by the Bills. Daniel Jones, who signed a deal this offseason guaranteeing him at least $82 million finished the year with 15 touchdown passes. What I’m getting at is this team manufactured points without having premier receiving options. Enter Waller, a premier receiving option.

Waller might not seem that significant coming off two injury-plagued seasons in which he averaged 71 receptions, 895 yards and four touchdowns. We’ll get to why that might be misleading as he joins this offense, but it dramatically shortchanges Waller’s upside. During the 2019-2020 seasons, Waller averaged 105 receptions, 1,244 yards and six touchdowns. The biggest reason for that difference, aside from health, was a lack of surrounding talent in the receiving corps. In 2019 and 2020, Waller was the clear-cut first option for Derek Carr and the Raiders, and he dominated. In 2020, Waller’s Pro Bowl season, he was targeted six or more times in 14 of 16 games, and drew 10+ targets seven times. He had five 100+ yard games, a 200-yard effort, and managed 75+ yards in half his games. He also scored at least one touchdown in eight games that year.

Of course injuries sapped his numbers the past two seasons, but 2022 the clearer culprit for his production cratering was the addition of Davante Adams. While Adams is always good for an offense, he was not good for Waller, because he monopolized the team’s target share. Adams had 180 targets in 2022, and the next highest player was Mack Hollins at 94. No other Raider had even 65. In eight games in which Waller played meaningful snaps, he never saw more than eight targets, and had five or fewer targets five times. That type of decrease is devastating to Waller’s production, because he is not a player who relies on efficiency. He has consistently been at 7-9 yards per target and 11-13 yards per reception over the last four seasons, so the clear differentiator for him has been volume, and a touchdown spike in 2020. Now he’s leaving the Adams-dominated passing attack and joining the Giants, who are begging for a player who can be an alpha for their passing attack.

The Giants are proving to be a savvy front office these days. After surveying the market in light of their weak pass-catching situation they decided against overpaying a mediocre WR and instead dealt a third rounder they acquired for Toney, a malcontent, for an undervalued asset they’re about to place in an ideal scenario. Provided he stays healthy, it would be unfathomable for him to not lead this team in targets. Waller not only thrives with the heavy volume, he also provides a safety blanket and red zone target that Jones sorely lacked last season. Additionally, Jones is one of the better rushing QBs in the NFL, and we have seen Daboll utilize that skill set to its fullest with Josh Allen in Buffalo. Jones seems to lack the upside Allen had as a passer, so this offense will be built more on Jones’ rushing. In offenses that revolve around a running QB, there’s usually room for two fantasy relevant pass-catchers, and one of them is often a TE. Michael Vick had Algae Crumpler, Cam Newton had Greg Olsen, Colin Kaepernick had Vernon Davis, and so on and so forth. Jones isn’t anywhere near as dynamic as those guys, but Waller is right up there talent-wise with those TEs, and he should flourish in the role.

The TE position is not a fun one for most fantasy managers, and lately it’s been making more and more sense to spend big on the top guys, as the later diamonds have been more difficult to come across. Waller isn’t a late diamond, because he’s still too big a name, but he has become a guy that’s dismissed as a potential Top 3 player at the position anymore. Until this move, I was also ready to move on from Waller as a true fantasy stud. Now, in this potentially high-volume role, Waller is once again a super exciting option at one of fantasy’s toughest positions to fill.