2022 Team Previews: Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins Fantasy Preview 2022
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
**Tyreek Hill, WR (ADP: 21): We all know Tyreek Hill is amazing. He’s one of the fastest players in the league, and one of the NFL’s premier deep threats and game breakers. And beyond his otherworldly speed, he’s a damn good receiver. That’s why for all the concerns about Tua Tagovailoa’s arm strength, Hill’s ADP has persevered nicely for a guy leaving arguably the best QB in football and one of the highest-scoring offenses. He ranked as PFF’s No. 6 overall receiver, and had the fourth-most Effective Yards (Football Outsiders) in football, showing that he wasn’t just a speedy product of Mahomes’ greatness. He was actually one of the biggest driving forces of that potent attack, and brings that value to Miami, where their QB desperately needed more playmakers. Hill excelled against all coverages, and at running just about every route minus Outs and flats. It’s obvious that his production will come down a tick from being in KC – Mahomes to Tua is a precipitous drop, even for those who are optimistic about Tua – but thinking Hill is suddenly going to fall off a cliff would be foolish. There’s a great chance he provides strong value on this ADP, as the WR8.
Jaylen Waddle, WR (ADP: 39): Waddle’s draft stock hasn’t been hurt a ton by the addition of Hill, despite Waddle thriving largely off volume in 2021. Don’t get me wrong, he’s an excellent WR, but for a dude with his blazing speed he posted a pedestrian 9.8 yards per catch and 7.1 ADOT (average depth of target). He’s obviously capable of more than that, but that’s probably what they brought Hill in for. 24.4% of Waddle’s routes last year were slants, and 14.4% of them went to the flats; he dominated on these routes, but he also posted a near 70% success rate on nine routes, while they made up just 10.4% of his routes. We aren’t going to get more of that with Hill in tow, so 2021 was probably Waddle’s ceiling for the immediate future. I do believe this will be a pretty pass-heavy offense, so matching what he did last season is not out of the question. But it’s no guarantee, and neither are the six touchdowns he scored, so while this is a fine ADP for a good player, I do not see how he returns value on it.
Chase Edmonds, RB (ADP: 91): I wrote here about the perceived value of Edmonds and his backfield mate Raheem Mostert, and since then I’ve evolved a bit. Whether or not Mostert will be up and running at full capacity for the start of the season isn’t clear, and my expectation of this offense is that they’ll pass the ball a ton, necessitating a greater snap rate for Edmonds. I haven’t evolved, however, on Edmonds’ getting a much bigger rushing workload than he’s had with Arizona. Edmonds has maxed out at 116 carries, which was last year, and I don’t envision him getting much more than that – or many goal line opportunities – which caps his ceiling. He’s proven to be an explosive guy who can score from distance though, and a very strong pass catcher. That will help him in this offense with Waddle and Hill’s speed keeping safeties away from the line of scrimmage and creating lanes for Edmonds to use his own wheels. Edmonds is now the clear back to draft now from Miami, but do not expect that to translate to sneaky, low-end RB1. He ain’t that, but he can be useful as an RB2 if you’ve drafted very well at other positions.
Mike Gesicki, TE (ADP: 108): Gesicki is a talented dude, but the conditions aren’t optimal for him to have a Mark Andrews-esque breakout. He saw a career-high in targets (112), receptions (73), and yards (780) but only scored two touchdowns, averaged seven yards per target and the lowest yards per catch (10.7) since his rookie season. He’s now competing with a target hound in Waddle, and a brand new elite receiver in Hill who will demand a very thick slice of the pie as well. Couple that with him not grading particularly well (only 21st) per PFF, and what we have is a great athlete who might not be an immensely productive TE. He is only being drafted as the TE11, so there isn’t any harm in drafting him here, but those shouldn’t expect a locked-in weekly TE with that pick.
Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)
Tua Tagovailoa, QB (ADP: 122): Tua is the man who is being leaned on to make all this work. The Dolphins have loaded up around him, including beefing up the offensive line, so there are no excuses in 2022 as I covered here. He’s now more than a full season removed from his awful hip injury suffered in his final season at Alabama, he has ridiculous WRs, a strong TE, and multiple quality RBs at his disposal, and he’s one of football’s most accurate QBs. Some will snicker at the completion rate thing, because he rarely tried to throw the ball down the field, but that accuracy will come in handy when he’s throwing to Hill and Waddle, real route technicians who can devastate defenses after the catch. The population on Tua island is depleting fast, but I remain here. I think Tua is a quality QB and he’s going to surprise many people with how he looks. With that said, fantasy-wise he is probably not going to crack the Top 12 because he does not run enough. He’s scored three rushing touchdowns in each of his first two seasons, which is nice, but running’s not his forte. Without a rushing floor, he needs to put up sky-high passing numbers, and while I do expect efficiency from Tua, I do not expect Brady-esque attempts or yardage. Tua will be an excellent spot starter or QB2 in formats that allow for multiple QBs, but I am not counting on the full breakout in 2022.
**Raheem Mostert, RB (ADP: 130): Mostert’s ADP has dropped like a stone due to lingering concerns about his readiness for the season, and this is the ADP to get him at. He’s still with his old San Francisco coordinator, and he’s averaged 5.7 yards per carry for his career. That’s an insane number, and while he only has 284 career rushes, that’s a big number for a guy with 284 attempts. Mostert has track star speed and he’s a known commodity to the Dolphins staff. If healthy, he should see a healthy chunk of early down work and, like Edmonds, Mostert can strike paydirt from long distance. Provided he’s going to be active for Week 1, I’m absolutely taking a stab at him if this ADP holds.
Sony Michel, RB (ADP: 174): Michel rose from the dead with the Rams last season, but I remain mostly uninterested in him. He’s certainly not seeing 208 carries in Miami unless something has gone wrong, and his contributions as a receiver are negligible. I do think he has a chance to establish a career-high in touchdowns as this team’s goal line hammer, but that alone makes him little more than an emergency FLEX option, and that’s if he carves out that role for himself. The case for Michel is Mostert’s injury track record, but a Mostert injury probably just means more snaps for Edmonds and passes for Tua.
Sleeper Class (200 & later)
Myles Gaskin, RB (ADP: 250): Remember Gaskin? He was a major sleeper last season, and now he’s completely buried. He won’t be this team’s every-down back regardless of injuries, but he’s the logical choice for an increased role if Edmonds got hurt. Gaskin is the rare receiving back handcuff. He’s currently worthless in drafts, but pay attention if misfortune befalls Edmonds, because Mostert and Michel are not pass-catchers.
Cedrick Wilson, WR (ADP:287): Wilson is a deep league type who is notable for scoring six touchdowns last season for Dallas. He hasn’t had much opportunity in his career, but when injuries hit the Cowboys he was impressive, totaling 45 catches, 602 yards and the aforementioned six scores. He can make big plays and score, so if this becomes a truly pass-happy squad, there’s a chance he makes noise. There’s no need to draft him, just pay attention if there’s a splash.