2022 Team Previews: Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Preview 2022

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

Kyle Pitts, TE (ADP: 33): Pitts is a great player, so let’s state that out front. He’s not really a TE, so don’t even bother bringing up his blocking. Pitts was drafted inside the Top 10 last year to create nightmare mismatches, and he did that last season, putting up 68 receptions and 1,026 yards, second-most ever for a rookie at the position behind Mike Ditka. He was PFF’s No. 5 TE last year, and posted the fifth most Effective Yards at TE per Football Outsiders. He also only scored one touchdown, which seems absurd. If you are banking on a positive touchdown regression for Pitts, that makes a lot of sense. He is still the clear top receiving option for this team, and he should be a near-impossible cover in the red zone. The biggest issue for this team is whether the quarterbacking will be effective enough to get him the ball and maximize his upside. The options are third-round rookie Desmond Ridder or Marcus Mariota, who last was a starter in 2019. While I love Pitts’ talent, he’s about to experience a severe QB downgrade from Matt Ryan, and I think that this ADP doesn’t factor in the risk of this being a pitiful offense enough.

Cordarrelle Patterson, RB/WR (ADP: 88): Patterson gains value on platforms where he’s a multi-positional player, but as a RB, I have mixed feelings. While his 11 total touchdowns seems completely not repeatable, this is an offense mostly bereft of proven playmakers, and certainly doesn’t have other established RBs. Patterson only rushed the ball 153 times, so volume isn’t his friend, meaning those TDs need to be there for him to return value. On the other hand, he very well might receive all the high-value touches in the red zone. Realistically, 11 touchdowns is most likely not happening again, especially when they’re relying on such unproven/mediocre options to run the offense. This ADP does factor in the bust risk, but Patterson’s floor is incredibly low. Despite the perceived discount, I’m likely looking elsewhere.

**Drake London, WR (ADP: 105): London is my favorite rookie receiver this year for fantasy. London has all the same issues that could limit Pitts’ ceiling this year, but he is far cheaper. He made a huge leap in production last season at USC, hauling in 88 passes for 1,084 yards and seven touchdowns despite very bad QB play. He posted an 85.2% contested catch rate, and a ridiculous 31.4% of his targets were contested. Of course, Pac-12 DBs are different from the beasts in the NFL, but London is obviously elite at that skill, and makes him every bit the threat that Pitts is in the end zone. There are zero credible options ahead of London on this depth chart, so he’ll be on the field and given plenty of targets, especially when Atlanta’s defense is putting the offense in a hole they need to pass out of. Rookie WRs shouldn’t be counted on, and London is no exception, but his volume should enable him to provide value on the WR42 draft slot.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

Tyler Allgeier, RB (ADP: 156): Allgeier is an outlier in that fantasy managers have some excitement for him despite low draft capital. That’s because we all know Atlanta cannot afford to break Patterson with too much volume, and Allgeier profiles much more as a high-volume option than Damien Williams. The rookie carried the ball 276 times in 2020 at BYU, where he piled up 1,800 yards from scrimmage and scored 24 touchdowns. Those are video game numbers vs. competition that pales in comparison to NFL defenses, but he still did it. Before you get too excited, however, realize that Allgeier will likely give way to Patterson near the end zone, and even Patterson will have to fight with Pitts and London for short yardage scoring opportunity. Allgeier should be considered an emergency FLEX/roster depth type of player and nothing more in 2022.

Sleeper Class (200 & later)

Marcus Mariota, QB (ADP: 232): I wrote about Mariota’s upside here, and said he has QB1 upside. This will not be a high-volume passing offense, but Mariota, at his best, can make it an efficient one. The Falcons have made an effort to help him with that, bringing in London as a contested catch specialist to join Pitts and Patterson, who scored a touchdown for every 20 opportunities. Mariota posted TD rates above 5% in his first two seasons, but he’ll need to do even better than that to achieve low-end QB1 dreams. He’ll also have to run. Part of his downfall in Tennessee was that the Titans were so concerned about preserving his health that they restrained him from playing the way that could’ve made him successful. He never ran more than 4.6 times per game with the Titans, which is tough to believe given how talented he is as a rusher. In 2020, the lone game he got into with the Raiders featured Mariota rushing nine times for 88 yards, and completing 17 of 28 passes for 226 yards and a touchdown. That is the guy the Falcons are hoping they can unleash for a full season. If they can, well this ADP will seem absurd. As it stands, he’s going behind Taysom Hill and Kenny Pickett, two players who aren’t even expected to open the year as starters.

Damien Williams, RB (ADP: N/A): Williams is a quality receiving back, but this team has Patterson for that, and for Allgeier to get beat up in between the 20s. There’s no clear path to value outside of a Patterson injury, and this ADP reflects that.

Bryan Edwards, WR (ADP: N/A): Edwards’ bloom is gone, as his time with the Raiders ended with just 764 yards and four touchdowns in two seasons. He’s physically gifted for sure, but he had a 76% snap rate last year on an offense that was begging for an outside receiver to step up and he did not do it. Now he joins a Falcons team with Pitts leading the charge and a big old potential target hound in London, so the fantasy outlook is bleak. It’s possible to snap up sleepers at the end of the draft, but Edwards is not one of them.

Desmond Ridder, QB (ADP: N/A): If the Falcons stink, we’ll see Ridder in 2022. The third rounder has spoken boldly of bringing a Super Bowl to Atlanta, but he’s a guy whose had some remarkable success. He led the Cincinnati Bearcats to the College Football Playoff last year while throwing for 30 touchdowns against only eight interceptions. It was also the only time in four college seasons he’d thrown for even 2,500 yards. Ridder is mobile, but doesn’t project as a big time runner at the position, so he’s really not on the radar for fantasy this year outside of speculation in two-QB leagues, or dynasty formats.

Olamide Zaccheaus, WR (ADP: N/A): Zaccheaus might actually have the inside track on Bryan Edwards to be this offense’s third banana due to his institutional knowledge, but do you want to roster the third banana for Marcus Mariota? Didn’t think so.