2022 Team Previews: Buffalo Bills

Buffalo Bills Fantasy Preview 2022

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

Stefon Diggs, WR (ADP: 12): Diggs is now the WR5 off the board, despite a slightly disappointing 2021. His final numbers were great – 103 receptions, 1,225 yards, 10 touchdowns – but he lacked the true spike games that make these high-end WR1s so fun to roster. There’s no particular reason for that, aside from Josh Allen being an elite QB able to spread the ball around and get other players involved. Diggs is still the obvious top target on this elite offense. He will lead the team in targets, he will probably lead the team in touchdowns, and he experienced no decline in his play. He was a Top 12 WR per PFF, he was fifth in the NFL in Expected yards per Football Outsiders, and he’s still got Allen throwing the ball. Diggs is simply elite in every aspect of being an NFL WR, and you can feel very comfortable burning a first round pick on him.

Josh Allen, QB, (ADP: 22): Allen is the consensus QB1 off the board, and it makes all the sense. He was the No. 1 QB in fantasy in points per game, he was eighth in passing yards and seventh in passing touchdowns, proving to be an elite passer. Then you add in that he’s one of the most prolific QBs in football on the ground – 763 rushing yards, six touchdowns – and he’s can’t miss. Unlike in the past, when Patrick Mahomes was the perennial QB1, Allen is less likely to underdeliver because his rushing baseline is so much higher than Mahomes’. However, the age-old dilemma exists with Allen the same as it has with every QB1 since QBs started running so much. There’s such tremendous value later on at this position that Allen needs to provide such a massive advantage that it outweighs the benefit of drafting players like Mark Andrews, Mike Evans and A.J. Brown. I adore Allen as a player, but I’m not doing that. The ADP is simply too high for any QB, so I will go on living in fear of the week when I face Josh Allen.

**Gabriel Davis, WR (ADP: 66): Davis is a red hot sleeper this year, and many times when a player gets the universal sleeper stamp of approval it’s time to worry. I’m falling for it. I wrote about him earlier this offseason here, and I’m in love with his upside. Davis is finally set to have a steady role as the WR2 for Allen, and even in his previous limited role he’s been able to put in work. He has yet to show what he can do with volume, but he’s been as efficient as can be in his first two seasons, putting up 16.4 yards per catch for his career and scoring 13 touchdowns on just 70 receptions. He finished as a Top 10 WR per PFF, ahead of Diggs. Imagine what he could do with dramatically increased opportunity. That’s about to happen, with 184 targets from last season (Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley gone), and Jamison Crowder coming in. Buffalo threw the ball the fifth-most times in 2021, and they have arguably the best QB in football. It is a near lock that Davis is about to make a huge leap.

Devin Singletary, RB (ADP: 78): Singletary took over the backfield toward the end of 2021, finally leaving Zack Moss in the dust and showing the value of a three-down role in an elite offense. Singletary’s noone’s idea of a superstar back, but he’s definitely good, and that’s enough when the entire offense is efficient. Singletary has never rushed for fewer than 4.4 yards per carry, and when he saw high volume he always responded. Now, the cap on his upside is receiving. Singletary graded very poorly last year in that facet of the game, and while he saw volume at the end of the year, James Cook was drafted for a reason. Singletary is a good option for zero-RB drafters but the lid on his receiving potential, and the ever-present threat of Josh Allen stealing his rushing touchdowns means Singletary’s ceiling isn’t much higher than this ADP implies.

Dawson Knox, TE (ADP: 88): Knox might give off Robert Tonyan vibes after exploding for nine touchdowns last season. That’s a little unfair to Knox, who was a third round pick in 2019 and had much higher expectations of him, but the archetype makes sense. Yes, he’s a good player but he only caught 49 passes last year and put up less than 600 yards. Knox was a very TD-dependent player in 2021, and while this is obviously a great offense, banking on those TDs is a risky proposition because they can be soaked up largely by Diggs and Gabriel Davis. This ADP is too high for me.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

James Cook, RB (ADP: 106): Cook has people excited, and there’s clear big play potential with him. He’s a receiving back in a high-scoring, high volume pass offense. But, we have discussed Singletary’s competence, so Cook’s role, while secure, also lowers the ceiling significantly. In addition to the one-dimensional usage I’m expecting, I do not see an avenue to a three-down role as a rookie because Cook is a smaller back, and he’s never logged more than 113 carries in a season. Splash plays are fun, but guys like this can often be the bane of a fantasy manager’s existence. We drool over his potential and playmaking, and ignore our better judgment with regard to his role. Rookie James Cook is a trap.

Isaiah McKenzie, WR (ADP: 180): McKenzie has gone from complete afterthought to intriguing deep sleeper this summer with reports out of camp saying he’s in the lead to be the primary slot receiver. He’s got tons of competition for volume, which is definitely a limiting factor, but that role has produced back-to-back 82-catch seasons for Cole Beasley. It’d be disrespectful to Beasley to flatly say McKenzie is a better player; we don’t know that, and Beasley is a very underrated receiver, but McKenzie without question possesses more big play capability. McKenzie absolutely turned heads last year in the lone game in which he saw big opportunity, because he lit the Patriots’ secondary on fire to the tune of 11 catches, 125 yards and a touchdown. But keep in mind that McKenzie has been in the NFL since 2017. He may be a surprise this year, but this ADP is not masking a true force for anyone’s fantasy roster. If you’re interested in him, you should be thinking possible useful depth.

Sleeper Class (200 & later)

Jamison Crowder, WR (ADP: 233): Crowder was assumed to be the Beasley replacement for Buffalo, which sounds interesting until you dig into Crowder’s career and realize he has never topped 900 yards or 80 receptions once in a seven-year career. If he takes Beasley’s role and fends off McKenzie, he’ll be about as interesting as Beasley was. We should all root for McKenzie to get the gig on the off chance he becomes another interesting fantasy option.

Zack Moss, RB (ADP: 365): Moss was dreadful last year, averaging 3.6 yards per carry, offering little as a receiver and losing his role completely to Singletary, who he was originally drafted to push or replace. Now Cook is in the mix, and those two should be able to handle the RB duties without Moss’ help. Even with an injury to Singletary, Moss is little more than an early down guy on a team that throws a ton and has a QB who is their best short yardage rusher.