2022 Team Previews: San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Preview 2022
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
Deebo Samuel, WR (ADP: 20): Samuel is currently the WR7 off the board, and the steam coming off his offseason trade demand seems to have cooled. Deebo remaining in San Fran is the best outcome for us fantasy managers, because too many high-end WR1s have already thrown the top of the position into flux. Deebo likely will do well anywhere because he’s awesome, but very few offensive minds are as creative as Kyle Shanahan, who developed so many ways to deploy his nuclear bomb last year. Samuel accounted for more than 1,770 yards from scrimmage and scored 14 total touchdowns, with E-I-G-H-T of them coming on the ground. Now, TD hunting is a dangerous game and sometimes players who live off high TD totals can starve. Samuel may not strike paydirt 14 times again, especially if the offseason scuttlebutt about him wanting to run the ball less are true, but he also averaged 18.2 yards per reception and dominated target share. While 2021 might’ve represented a peak for him, Samuel is still a rock solid WR1, even with the quality of targets downgrading due to the change at QB. That might affect some of the 49ers’ players, but not this one. He is this offense.
**George Kittle, TE (ADP: 42): We are here once again, where I am talking about George Kittle as underrated and arguably the best TE in football without the requisite numbers backing up my faith. Kittle finished last season with 71 receptions, 910 yards and six touchdowns; these are fine numbers for a TE, and even more impressive because they were compiled in 14 games. Still, that doesn’t justify the ADP you got him at last year, nor will it justify his current ADP. Injuries are a concern, as he’s only played a full season once in five years, and he’s never scored more than six touchdowns. It’s hard to see that changing with the 49ers moving from Jimmy Garoppolo to Trey Lance, who is not only the rawest starting QB in the NFL as a passer, but is a dynamic red zone and goal line threat as a runner. Still, Kittle graded as PFF’s No. 2 TE behind only Mark Andrews (tied with Dallas Goeder), earned PFF’s top receiving grade at the position, and posted the league’s sixth-best TE DVOA (20.1%). I totally understand if you’re hesitant because of the injury history and changing offense, but this man is an absolute beast, an elite player, and now representing a value with Travis Kelce at No. 14 overall and Andrews at No. 23.
Elijah Mitchell, RB (ADP: 45): Mitchell is such a risky proposition despite playing in what projects to be perhaps the most run-heavy offense in the NFL in 2022. He came out of nowhere in his rookie season to put up 963 yards and six total touchdowns, averaged 4.7 yards per carry, and had a 64% snap share. With those numbers, and this offense, you’d think he’s a lock second round pick at worst. But, there are some red flags. Mitchell struggled to stay on the field, playing in just 11 games and having to leave multiple games early. Despite being the clear-cut RB1, he watched as Samuel scored eight times on the ground, often serving as the RB near the goal line or in important situations. That figures to continue, and now he’ll have Lance at QB, whose primary value at this point is the electricity and matchup headaches he creates as a runner. Lastly, the 49ers backfield is never assured. Mitchell was a sixth round pick few of us had ever heard of until he was dominating touches. He leapt Trey Sermon, who was drafted out of Ohio State three rounds earlier, without warning. Who is to say that can’t happen to Mitchell? He’s definitely a good player; PFF graded him 18th last season ahead of guys like Austin Ekeler and Javonte Williams, but his path to touchdowns and not having much production as a receiver do place a cap on his ceiling. His current ADP is fine, but if it creeps higher he won’t be able to provide a ton of value to your team. It’ll be moreso just drafting him at his ceiling.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR (ADP: 96): Unlike Mitchell, Aiyuk is not being drafted at his ceiling. That’s because despite enormous talent, he’s at risk of pissing off Shanahan at any time and being phased out of the game plan. Aiyuk put up decent numbers in 2021 – 56 receptions, 826 yards, five TDs – and was a fairly useful player in the second half of the year, but it took him seven games to hit 100 yards for the season. I’m not kidding. That’s because his practice habits were underwhelming the coaching staff and he was just not on the field for chunks of games. This brutal stretch included a complete doughnut in Week 1, when he was widely started, and he had six total yards through two games. We’re hoping he’s on better terms in Year 3, but now the 49ers are likely to see a major reduction in passing volume, which is not going to affect Samuel, and shouldn’t affect Kittle. That means Aiyuk might be S.O.L., because it’s hard to envision Trey Lance supporting three fantasy relevant receiving options. He’s a fine talent to gamble on, but situations matter a great deal, and this isn’t a great one to be a WR2.
Trey Lance, QB (ADP: 101): We’ve arrived at Trey Lance, the man of mystery who will affect every single player on what we hope is a super fun, high-powered offense. Lance is not going to throw the ball a ton; this defense should be one of the better units in the league, and Lance just flat out doesn’t have much experience throwing the football at any level. Last season in brief action he completed just 57.7% of his throws, and was picked off twice in two starts. His passing grade was lower than the likes of Tyler Huntley, Joe Flacco and Jared Goff. But, he has a cannon of an arm, so he’s going to flash at times and make week-winning throws for Samuel and Kittle managers. He also ran 6.3 times per game last season, averaged nearly 30 yards on the ground and was inches away from two rushing touchdowns in extremely limited action. As the full-time starter, running will be built in to the offense and his upside is very high. Think Jalen Hurts. But as rough as Hurts was at times throwing the football, he is still way ahead of Lance developmentally, and the burden is on Shanahan to craft an offense around Lance’s talents that don’t expose him or make his reads too complex. He doesn’t have the necessary experience, and his college competition wasn’t anywhere close to NFL defenses. This ADP is a tad high, as I’d prefer to roster Lance as a backup QB with the hopes that he pops and can be traded, or allows me to trade my starter. I think he will have a season similar to Hurts, although without the passing bonanza games that pushed him to elite fantasy levels. He’s an exciting player, but for 2022, I’d temper expectations just a tad.
Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)
Tyrion Davis-Price, RB (ADP: 191): Davis-Price was drafted in Round 3 out of LSU, so while I don’t have much expectation for him this year, he can’t be ignored. Last season was his first as a leading man at LSU, and he rewarded the Tigers with 1,0003 yards and six touchdowns for a fairly lackluster squad. For now, I’m not particularly interested in him but he’ll certainly be worth monitoring in camp and during the preseason. If he starts to generate buzz, he could be worth a very late round flyer.
Sleeper Class (200 & later)
Trey Sermon, RB (ADP: 225): Sermon was buried under the doghouse last season, barely playing at all. We learned nothing from his rookie campaign, so obviously, there’s no reason to be excited this year about him. There’s also no reason to completely write him off, as the two games where he did see at least 50% of snaps, he scored a touchdown in Week 3 and ran 19 times for 89 yards in Week 4. Sermon looked incredibly impressive at Ohio State, so, as with Davis-Price, if his outlook turns sunny during camp/preseason he can be worth a dart throw.
Jeff Wilson, RB (ADP: 270): Wilson was the next man up last year, but he battled injuries and trudged to a 3.7 yard per carry mark. In 2020 Wilson was a useful player with volume, scoring seven touchdowns, and he has a much more established presence than Sermon or Davis-Price. In fact, if the season started today, he’s a likelier next man up to Mitchell than either of his younger competitors. Wilson is just another body to monitor this summer, but ultimately it’s unlikely any of these guys will have much value if Mitchell is healthy.
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB (ADP: 280): Garoppolo’s fantasy value is zero in San Fran, but the expectation is that he will be released or traded at some point. When that happens, there’s a chance he ends up in Seattle, where he will have D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett at his disposal, which makes him a viable streamer or steady QB2 in leagues that support multiple QBs.