2022 Team Previews: Tennessee Titans

Tennessee Titans Fantasy Preview 2022

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

Derrick Henry, RB (ADP: 5): Henry has been one of the NFL’s most dominant players for a long time. He’s registered double-digit touchdowns for four straight seasons, despite only playing in eight games last year. He’s averaged more than 20 carries a game for three consecutive seasons, as well as more than 100 yards per game and he’s been over five yards per carry in two of the last three campaigns. This offense has and will continue to revolve around him, so this ADP makes all the sense in the world. And yet…I can’t help but be hesitant, especially in half or full-PPR leagues.

There’s no doubt Henry is a physical marvel and complete freak, but he’s entering his age-28 season having logged four straight 200-carry seasons, and toting the rock 300+ times twice in the last three. That kind of volume leads to a pounding that takes it’s toll on any RB, even one as massive and beastly as Henry. We saw him decline ever so slightly in 2021, as his yards per carry dipped from 5.4 to 4.3, and Tennessee had been riding him harder than ever (27.4 attempts per game). And he suffered a fractured foot in the process; sure, that might have been a freak injury rather than wear and tear, but that’s going to happen when you are receiving that level of usage.

It also hasn’t mattered at all for most of the last few campaigns, but Henry is not a RB who offers much in the receiving game, so there is more potential for him than other RBs in this range to be game scripted out of his necessary volume. Does this mean Henry is a bust waiting to happen? Of course not, but it does mean I’d be careful about drafting him with the fifth overall pick over a RB who catches the rock more.

Treylon Burks, WR (ADP: 92): Burks, due to his size and speed is being looked at by many as a ready-made replacement for the departed A.J. Brown. Unfortunately, asthma has derailed his preseason activities thus far, and the stories coming out of Titans minicamps has been that he’s required conditioning work. Burks may look the part, but expecting him to be Brown out of the gate is foolish; he’ll need to be incredibly efficient to return value on this ADP, because the Titans just don’t throw enough for him to dominate. Now, Burks was very efficient at Arkansas, averaging 16+ yards per reception in all three of his seasons and increasing his touchdown output every year he was there. But this is the NFL, and Henry, as well as QB Ryan Tannehill, are bigger threats to his red zone and goal line touches than anyone at Arkansas was. I am a fan of Burks, and I ranked him third among rookies this season here, but that doesn’t mean I’m pulling the trigger at No. 92 overall.

Robert Woods, WR (ADP: 101): Woods, a steady veteran, is going nine picks later than Burks. Some will see this and think that he’s the better value, but I think that’s a trap. Woods was a consistent source of production before last season, logging 90 receptions in 2019 and 2020, and 86 in 2018 for the Rams. That was before injuries derailed his 2021 season, and he was replaced by Odell Beckham Jr. and let loose by the Super Bowl champs. Prior to landing with the Rams, Woods had spent four underwhelming seasons in Buffalo being a serviceable, but not particularly relevant WR. Now he’s 30 years old and joining one of the lowest-volume passing offenses in football while downgrading at QB. Woods made his bones as a high-volume PPR guy, and while he’ll probably lead the Titans in targets and receptions, it’ll be a struggle for him to hit the 90-catch mark. Couple that with the fact he’s never eclipsed six touchdowns, and we’re looking at a disappointing WR at this ADP.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

Ryan Tannehill, QB (ADP: 147): Tannehill took a step back statistically last season from 2020, when he finished as a QB1. He dropped from 33 to 21 passing touchdowns and doubled his interception total, while dropping in yards per attempt to seven from 7.9 in 2020, and 9.6 in 2019. Tannehill’s yardage has never been impressive as a Titan, forcing him to rely on his efficiency, so when his TD% dropped from 6.9% to 4%, it creates a big drop in fantasy value. PFF was still favorable toward his work, ranking him eighth in the NFL, but I am skeptical that his efficiency will return to peak form with A.J. Brown departed from the offense. Brown’s presence made a lot of Tennessee’s big play ability possible, and while they drafted Burks, who has a similar skill set, he's utterly unproven at the pro level. Without a surefire field stretcher, Tannehill’s already mediocre passing output could fall off even further and render him an unsafe weekly option.

Tannehill’s saving grace is that he’s quietly a pretty high-end rushing option at the position. He’s scored seven rushing TDs in back-to-back seasons, and rushed 3.2 times per game in 2020, averaging 15.9 yards. He’s not Josh Allen or anything, but that rushing ability does establish a baseline making him safer than some of the pure pocket passers fantasy managers are drafting ahead of him.

Austin Hooper, TE (ADP: 195): Hooper’s really fallen off the map since signing with Cleveland, where he was irrelevant due to an extremely run-heavy offense, shaky QB play, a clog at the TE position and superior receiving options. Here, it’s more of the same. We’ve seen Jonnu Smith be fantasy relevant, but Hooper is nowhere near the athlete Smith is, and much of Smith’s value derived from gadget play use near the goal line. Hooper’s not that kind of player, and he’ll be TD-dependent on a team with Derrick Henry on it. Pass.

Sleeper Class (200 & later)

Dontrell Hilliard, RB (ADP: 289): Hilliard flashed big play potential with Henry out last season, averaging 6.3 yards per carry, but he’s not going to see the field unless Henry gets hurt. In the event of a Henry injury, Hilliard probably isn’t just walking into a three down role, but he is probably the first man up to lead the backfield in touches.

Malik Willis, QB (ADP: 315): Willis isn’t someone we’ll see play unless Tennessee’s season is disastrous, or maybe if Tannehill sustains a major injury. But if he somehow winds up playing, he might be worth rostering based off his rushing upside alone. Willis is an elite rusher at the position from Day 1, but he’s so raw as a passer that his ceiling is still capped.