ADP Deep Cuts: Jameis Winston Lurking Near Pick No. 150 As A Possible QB1

Jameis Winston is no longer an exciting name or sexy pick for fantasy managers, as he’s become more of a streaming option. But Winston has a past as a dominant fantasy option, and there’s a path for him to return to that form. With his current ADP, No. 149 overall and 20th among QBs per Fantasy Pros, he could provide incredible value.

In his heyday with the Buccaneers, with Bruce Arians running the offense, Winston was a reckless gunslinger who threw so much it was nearly impossible not to be fantasy relevant. In 2019, just three seasons ago, he threw for 33 touchdowns and more than 5,000 yards. Of course, he also threw 30 interceptions (reckless!) but even that ungodly turnover number didn’t knock him from an elite fantasy pedestal. He barely played in 2020, getting beaten out by Taysom Hill for playing time when Drew Brees was injured, but he did get the reins in 2021 until a brutal knee injury ended his season after seven games. Winston showed us something in those seven games, however.

He threw for 1,170 yards (176 per game) and tossed an impressive 14 touchdowns vs. three interceptions. Who knows if this was due to Sean Payton, who is not the coach anymore, but Winston seemed to be harnessing his immense talent into legitimate efficiency. His 23 attempts per game stunk, and if that continued under the new regime, it likely would remove Winston from the conversation of weekly impact QBs. But if they can bring those attempts up after he showed necessary improvements in 2021, and he can maintain that kind of touchdown efficiency, he’ll be a sneaky, sneaky value.

A notch in Winston’s favor is the drastic improvement in his pass-catching options. He will have Michael Thomas back, once considered the clear best receiver in football, and have free agent addition Jarvis Landry and first round pick Chris Olave in the fold, as well as deceptively dangerous Deonte Harty. The cupboard is full for Jameis. These are big upgrades for a guy who posted a 13.6% QB DVOA throwing to Tre’Quan Smith and Marquez Callaway.

Another thing most don’t factor in with Winston is his underrated rushing volume. He’s no Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray, but Winston averaged nearly five rushing attempts per game last year, and 23.7 yards, consistent with his final two seasons in Tampa Bay. He averaged nearly two more rushing attempts per game and 10 more yards per game than Russell Wilson, a player whose rushing upside is always considered. If Winston can put up an 8.7% touchdown rate and be one of the NFL’s more active rushers at the position, there’s no reason he cannot finish as a QB1, especially since we have seen him perform at lofty levels in the past. He has the receivers, and the confidence of his coaching staff. It makes all the sense in the world to draft Winston if you’re the type of manager to punt on QB until the end of the draft, or take a risky swing on the likes of Justin Fields or Trey Lance.