Fantasy Football Team Previews 2021: Washington Football Team
Washington Football Team Fantasy Preview 2021
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
Antonio Gibson, RB (ADP: 17): Gibson had buzz entering last season that kicked into overdrive once Derrius Guice’s NFL was derailed in training camp. This season, Gibson is the projected bell cow for Washington, which is poised to improve a ton offensively from a season ago, and he’s now the 12th RB off the board. This is about right. Gibson had an excellent rookie season – 4.7 yards per carry, 11 touchdowns – and he was dealing with a time share situation early on, and sharing passing down work too. While some might ticket Gibson to be a lock first rounder next year, I think this is an appropriate ADP. While Gibson has potential to be a three-down workhorse, and he may potentially be electric as a pass-catcher, J.D. McKissic worries me a little. Gibson was excellent as a rusher, and solid as a pass-catcher, but per PFF he was abysmal as a pass blocker in 2020. As a rookie, that’s not unexpected, but McKissic was significantly better, and also graded slightly better as a receiver. Because of this, Gibson isn’t a guarantee to assume a greater third down role, which is his ticket to being a surefire first round talent. So the second-round ADP makes sense, and while there’s room to grow for Gibson, even staying right where he is would be a positive outcome.
Terry McLaurin, WR (ADP: 35): McLaurin is the 11th WR off the board at the time of this writing, and while he certainly has the talent to be an elite receiver, you’re certainly drafting him at his ceiling with a Top 35 pick. McLaurin took the leap we wanted after his promising rookie season; he caught 87 passes (up from 58), totaled 1,118 yards (up from 919) and did it all catching passes from Alex Smith, Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen and Taylor Heinicke. He’s upgraded to Ryan Fitzpatrick now, and while Fitz is certainly exciting and unafraid of the deep balls McLaurin excels at, he’s not exactly a franchise QB. I have no doubts about McLaurin’s talent, and this ADP is fine, but it’s definitely not a value in my opinion. In fact, it’s likely a wee bit high if I’m nitpicking.
**Curtis Samuel, WR (ADP: 108): Samuel is probably the most interesting player on this team, as he had himself a mini-breakout in 2020 with the Panthers. He set career highs with 851 receiving yards and 77 receptions, while scoring five total touchdowns. The “total” is notable, because he carried the ball 41 times for 200 yards and scored on the ground twice, which should be utilized in Washington with Ron Rivera, the coach in Carolina when Samuel was drafted. From Weeks 9-17 Samuel had five or more receptions six times, and he saw at least five targets in every game, forging a baseline of consistency in an offense where he shared the pie with D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson. He now is arguably upgrading at QB, and finds himself as the clear cut No. 2 behind McLaurin. The jury is still out on whether Fitzpatrick can support two fantasy relevant receivers over the course of a season, but if Samuel was playable as a No. 3 catching passes from Teddy Bridgewater, chances are he’ll provide value on this ADP.
Logan Thomas, TE (ADP: 97): Thomas was quietly very competent in 2020 at a weak position, drawing the third-most targets (110) in the NFL from the TE position. I’m not necessarily viewing that as a big positive though, as he turned them into only 670 yards and six touchdowns, and the arrival of Samuel will slash his target share. The arrival of Fitzpatrick is also probably a negative; yes, he’s an upgrade on the likes of Smith and Haskins, but he’s also more prone to deeper targets rather than the safety valve approach of 2020. This year Washington has expectations, and their offense figures to be more explosive. None of that is what Thomas does. He may end up being a consistent TE who finishes in the back half of the Top 12, but that’s nothing you need to spend a Top 100 pick on. Evan Engram will have a similar line and he’s going 55 picks later.
Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)
J.D. McKissic, RB (ADP: 135): McKissic’s usage was shockingly high in 2020, as he finished the season with 80 receptions, 589 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Those numbers are why I worry that Gibson may not see the uptick in receiving work we want, but they’re also inflated by the ultra cautious approach Alex Smith had to playing QB. Fitzpatrick is not going to utilize his RB so much in the receiving game, and there is the threat of Washington’s coaching staff wanting to turn over more of this role to Gibson. McKissic probably should be drafted in full-PPR leagues, or deep half-PPR leagues, but it’s a low-ceiling selection. There’s no path to him becoming a three-down back, so even an injury to Gibson raises McKissic to a FLEX play at best.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB (ADP: 181): Fitzpatrick has come up a bunch already, so it’s time to address him directly. While we are excited for McLaurin to finally have a professional QB throwing him the ball, Fitz is entering his age 39 season and playing for his ninth NFL team. Studs don’t play for nine teams, typically, and Fitz has his warts as a player. It’s no fun to be the Debbie Downer on the Fitzmagic hype, but his career TD% (4.4%) isn’t a ton better than his career INT% (3.3%). He’s had a few opportunities as a long-term starter in his career, and he’s never eclipsed 3,832 yards; in that season, he tossed 24 touchdowns and 23 (!!!) interceptions for the Bills and it was in 2011. In 2018 he averaged 295.8 yards per game for the Bucs, but he only made seven starts and threw 12 picks against 17 interceptions. He was also benched in that season, which has become a theme for him in his later years. We’re in love with Fitz’s blowup games, but as a full season starter he’s been subpar for the most part. I believe he will overall help McLaurin and Samuel, but I’m not interested in him beyond streaming in any format outside of two-QB leagues.
Sleeper Class (200 & later)
Antonio Gandy-Golden, WR (ADP: 355): Gandy-Golden, a 2020 fourth-rounder out of Liberty, had a golden opportunity to stake his claim to a spot in this receiving corps but had his season washed out due to injury. Now the top two spots are occupied, and he’ll need an injury to occur to even sniff the field. He was extremely productive in his two seasons at Liberty – 70+ receptions, 1,000+ yards, and double-digit touchdowns both years – so he could be a factor in half-PPR or full-PPR formats at some point. But there’s no need to draft him.
Dyami Brown, WR (ADP: 359): Brown is in the same boat as Gandy-Golden in terms of needing an injury to be impactful this year, but he profiles as a much more explosive option. Brown never got to 60 receptions in any of his three seasons at North Carolina, but he topped 1,000 yards as a sophomore and a junior and scored 20 touchdowns in those two seasons. He averaged 20 yards per reception in back-to-back seasons, and seems like an ideal threat for Fitz who loves to chuck it deep. Brown is definitely an option in very deep keeper leagues, but as far as redraft leagues, or shallower keeper leagues, I wouldn’t have him on the draft day radar.
Defense/Special Teams (ADP: 109)
Washington’s D/ST is the fourth taken, and while No. 109 is ridiculous (for any defense, not just this one), they should be the type of D/ST that can win a week or two and consistently give you an advantage. The Football Team ranked second in the NFL in Pass DVOA (-18%) and 11th in Rush DVOA (-18.8%). They also feature one of the premier edge rushers in the NFL in Chase Young, who notched 7.5 sacks and forced four fumbles as a rookie. This is a D/ST that you can go to $2 on in an auction.