Fantasy Football 2021 Rookie Rankings: Nos. 10-6
It’s time to get into the Top 10 rookies for this upcoming fantasy season, which is not the same as ranking dynasty rookies. The Top 10 – and today we’ll look at Nos. 10-6 – are how I believe they will impact fantasy teams in 2021 redraft formats. For the Honorable Mentions, click here. Otherwise, let’s get started.
10. Justin Fields, QB, Bears (Round 1, No. 12 overall)
Fields would be higher if I was certain at this point in time that he will open the season as the starter. It’s hard to imagine a front office under pressure of losing their jobs would expend future capital to acquire a blue chip QB and then let him gather dust behind Andy Dalton, but hey, stranger things have happened. It’s safe to say whenever Fields gets on the field, he will be a major fantasy producer. There are certainly questions about his accuracy, mechanics and readiness to command an NFL-style offense, but he’s a player who threw for 2,100 yards and 22 touchdowns in only eight games at Ohio State last season. More importantly than that, he rushed 81 times for 383 yards and five touchdowns. Rushing is king for fantasy QBs, and there’s now so many who are capable runners that you’re at a disadvantage if you don’t have a running QB. It doesn’t hurt that he’ll start off his career with Allen Robinson, one of the NFL’s truly elite receiving talents, at his disposal. Should Fields open Week 1 as the starter, there’s no question he has QB1 upside. He’d rank much higher than 10th on this list if I could be sure he was under center right away.
9. Javonte Williams, RB, Broncos (Round 2, No. 35 overall)
Williams, like Fields, would be ranked higher if his playing time were clearer. Williams was arguably the best back in the draft, coming off an 1,140-yard, 19-touchdown season in which he shared work with Michael Carter, who looks in line to start for the Jets. Williams averaged more than seven yards per carry, and also showed receiving chops, reeling in 25 passes for 305 yards and three scores.
He has the ability to do it all, but he’s currently behind Melvin Gordon on Denver’s depth chart. This could be a Cam Akers situation in which he comes on very strong later in the season, but reaping the rewards would require owners to hold onto a player who likely won’t be doing a ton early on. Remember the frustration of watching Phillip Lindsay be better than Gordon, only to play less and not get goal line work?
8. Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, Panthers (Round 2, No. 59 overall)
Marshall didn’t even finish the 2020 season and finished with his second consecutive double-digit touchdown campaign. His reception totals aren’t super impressive, but he didn’t play a full season last year, and had to share looks in 2019 with Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase, as well as RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Yeah…he was fighting for scraps with those guys and still caught 13 touchdowns. Marshall is a beast, and he’s landed with the architect of that LSU offense, Joe Brady, who crafted Carolina’s impressive offense last year. He may not have prime opportunity, as Christian McCaffery is the offense’s lead dog and D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson will eat into his looks, but Marshall has proven he can do more with less. He averaged 15 yards per catch at LSU, and profiles as a down-the-field outside threat. Curtis Samuel’s departure vacated 97 targets from last season, and Marshall’s arrival could push Moore into Samuel’s role from a year ago, with Marshall assuming more traditional usage. Marshall’s drop to No. 59 overall was very puzzling to me, similar to Jefferson’s a year ago, and several teams will regret passing up a potential star here.
7. Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Bengals (Round 1, No. 5 overall)
Chase, who opted out last season and has no stats, is going to be awesome. There’s almost zero doubt about the consensus top receiver in this class, except for one as it relates to fantasy football; I don’t know that he will get enough targets immediately to be dominant. While Chase may well be the team’s top receiver the second he hits the field, and he is back with his college QB Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins established himself as the alpha last season and Tyler Boyd is a proven target hound in the slot. RB Joe Mixon needs his touches as well, so the pie isn’t as big for Chase as it might’ve been in other offenses. There’s also the concern that Cincinnati’s offensive line is still leaky AF, which not only puts Burrow at risk for re-injury, it limits the time Burrow will have to get Chase the ball down the field where he does his damage. Chase is still going to be in the WR2 mix in all likelihood, but I don’t know that he will approach his ultimate ceiling in Year 1.
6. Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars (Round 1, No. 1 overall)
Lawrence is widely considered the best prospect since Andrew Luck, who was damn good right out of the gate. Lawrence won’t be any different. He’s accurate (69.2% completion rate, only five INT last season), he has elite throwing ability, and he can do serious damage as a rusher (203 yards, eight touchdowns). He averaged almost seven rushing attempts at Clemson, and that’s no doubt a part of Lawrence’s game that Urban Meyer will take advantage of. Jacksonville’s line struggled in pass protection last season (25th adjusted sack %) which isn’t great, but Lawrence does have talent to work with in D.J. Chark, Laviska Shenault, and fellow rookie RB and Clemson teammate Travis Etienne. Even better, Etienne is a high-level pass catcher out of the backfield, so that will boost Lawrence’s production. A Top 12 fantasy finish is very likely for Lawrence, and I do believe he will be a consistent bargain all throughout draft season due to the perception of the Jags.