Cam Newton Will Be A Quietly Awesome Bargain In 2021
I’m going to ask a crazy question…is it possible that Cam Newton is a legitimate QB1 in 2021?
Let’s be clear, in terms of real NFL quarterback play, Newton was, at times, as bad as it gets. He played in four different games in which he passed for fewer than 100 yards, and threw for fewer than 200 yards in 10 of 15 games. He passed for more than one touchdown ONCE in 2020, and threw zero touchdown passes nine times. Those nine games included two different three-game stretches without a single touchdown pass. He posted a ghastly 2.2% touchdown percentage, which was lower than his interception percentage (2.7%), and he finished the year averaging 177.2 yards per game through the air. This is all a long-winded way to say that as a passer, Newton looked shot to hell and no longer viable.
But yet, the Patriots re-signed him this offseason to a one-year, $6 million deal, a bigger number than they gave him last season. Obviously, this was done before selecting Alabama QB Mac Jones in the draft, but there was no way for them to know he’d be available. Cam was signed rather than other free agent QBs like Ryan Fitzpatrick or Andy Dalton, who are both considered more reliable throwers these days. And Bill Belichick could’ve attempted to trade for Jimmy Garoppolo or Sam Darnold, or even a reclamation project like Mitch Trubisky. Literally all of these QBs represent more upside as passers than Newton showed in 2020. The Patriots clearly think there were valid reasons for his cratering performance. Newton didn’t have any kind of training camp, for starters. He also had a pretty brutal crew of skill players headlined by WR Julian Edelman, who missed most of the season with injury and then retired because his body is toast. New England went on a spending spree this offseason to address that, signing TEs Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith and WRs Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne to help Cam out. Lastly, Cam caught COVID last season which has plagued certain athletes in the sports world more than others.
If we’re being real, passing is not the reason to draft Newton. He’s one of the best running QBs in fantasy history, and his performance as a rusher in 2020 was overshadowed by the titanic pile of garbage that was his passing. He rushed for 45 or more yards seven times and finished the year with 12 rushing touchdowns. Only 15 running backs hit double-digit touchdowns, and that’s including receiving. He posted four multi-rushing touchdown performances, and rushing numbers like this go a long way toward masking his passing deficiencies. Cam averaged 8.74 rushing fantasy points per game (excluding fumbles, of which Cam lost only one), putting him third behind only Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray. That puts him well ahead of other running QBs like Josh Allen (5.6), Deshaun Watson (3.9) and Russell Wilson (3.95).
Newton is essentially the Patriots’ goal line back. 10 of his 12 rushing TDs came from five yards out or closer, and he scored more rushing touchdowns than New England’s top four running backs combined (8).
He also tied Damien Harris for the team lead in rushing attempts (137). With that kind of floor, it’s not inconceivable for him to creep back into the upper echelon of fantasy QBs with even modest improvements through the air. Lamar Jackson averaged just six more yards per game through the air, and one more attempts. Jackson, though, notched 26 touchdown passes.
It's unwise to compare Cam directly to Jackson and Murray; the latter two are far younger, far more explosive runners capable of chunk plays on the ground, while Newton is more reliant on rushing scores. They also both provide a much higher ceiling as passers as Newton, even though Jackson proved a scarily similar passing floor. But it is worth noting that Cam had his moments; he torched the Seahawks for 397 passing yards in Week 2 and got the Texans for 365 yards in Week 11.
Given a full training camp and improved weaponry, I do think Cam will end up being a bargain on draft day due to his extremely high rushing floor.