Fantasy Football Team Previews 2020: New York Jets
Must Own = Top 120
Value = 121-170
Deep Sleeper = 171 or later
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros
Must Own:
Le’Veon Bell, RB (ADP: 39): Once upon a time, Bell was a No. 1 overall pick in fantasy, and the best dual-threat RB the game had to offer. That pure talent is likely mostly there, but a missed season due to a holdout, and running behind a legitimately atrocious Jets offensive line last season have conspired to sink his ADP. Bell is now barely inside the Top 20 at his position, and now he’s a big value.
I don’t expect Bell to ever reach his old heights, because the Jets are nowhere near as good as the Steelers, and probably won’t ever get close. Still, some of Bell’s uglier numbers – 3.2 yards per carry, four total touchdowns – are a product of that horrendous line, several games with a crash test dummy at QB, and a general lack of a coherent offensive approach. Adam Gase’s offense can’t possibly be worse in 2020, Sam Darnold has a chance to be healthier this season, and the Jets made it a point to aggressively address the offensive line. They drafted a stud left tackle in the first round (Mekhi Becton), another tackle, Cameron Clark and swing lineman George Fant from the Seahawks in free agency. While ineffective last season, Bell still saw heavy usage on the ground and through the air, and averaged about 84 total yards per game. With better blocking, that should be closer to 100, with more touchdowns to boot. I like Bell very much at this point in the draft, even if his ceiling is lower than in years past. Remember, he also has a very high floor as the focal point of the Jets’ offense.
Value:
Jamison Crowder, WR (ADP: 132): Crowder is an unexciting fantasy option, but he’s going to lead an NFL offense in targets. Last season, Crowder resembled the player many expected to become elite after a breakout sophomore campaign in Washington, before he fell off. He caught a career-best 78 passes for 833 yards and six touchdowns. Operating out of the slot, he was the Jets’ leader in targets (122) by a wide margin over Robby Anderson (96), who is now a Carolina Panther. The Jets have revamped the receiving corps, and improved the offensive line, but are unlikely to fundamentally change their actual approach to offense. What we saw last season is more or less what Crowder is, although there’s upside for more receptions with Anderson gone. The Jets also have TE Chris Herndon returning, so Crowder’s target share should remain consistent. He’s no league winner, but he’s steady and allows you to take bigger swings at other positions knowing exactly what to expect from your WR3, or hopefully WR4 or WR5. Crowder gains value in full-PPR or half-PPR formats.
Deep Sleepers:
Sam Darnold, QB (ADP: 175): As you can see from the ADPs, fantasy owners aren’t expecting much from the Jets offense. Darnold can change all that behind his shiny new offensive line. Last season Darnold was unavailable for a stretch, and turnover-prone when he was on the field. He also showed flashes of being a big-time NFL QB, ripping off a four-week stretch in which he averaged 280 yards and two touchdowns against mostly awful defenses. The numbers would’ve looked even prettier had he not laid an egg at Cincinnati, which was an inexplicably poor outing. While Darnold’s career thus far is flat out not appealing to any fantasy owner, he’s dealt with bad offensive line play since he was drafted, and has consistently had one of the NFL’s worst collection of receivers. That might be the case this season, but his receiving corps at least possesses some upside. I would not consider drafting Darnold, even at this ADP, but I do view him as a comfortable streaming option against bad defenses. He’s certainly shown enough that I’m not treating him as a total stay-away.
Breshad Perriman, WR (ADP: 187): Perriman, who I discussed here, has been considered a massive, massive bust after being drafted in the first round in 2015. From 2016 to 2018, Perriman scored five touchdowns and started a total of six games. Atrocious. He was doing more of the same last season for the Buccaneers until a rash of injuries forced him onto the field, and out of nowhere he RKO’d opposing secondaries for the final five games of the season. Perriman put up more than 100 yards in each of the Bucs’ final three games, and across the last five weeks averaged 101.2 yards and a touchdown. Perriman saw at least five targets in all five games; the only other time he saw more than five targets was in Week 6 against the Seahawks, and he caught four of them for 42 yards and a touchdown. Something clicked for him, and he was a first round talent. The Jets’ receiving corps is a bit crowded, and they spent a second round pick on a WR (Denzel Mims) with a first round grade, so opportunity is not guaranteed for Perriman. He’s extremely explosive, however, and the path to playing time is there for him with no established names in the way.
Chris Herndon, TE (ADP: 197): Herndon received a little love from me here, because the last time we saw him, like really saw him, he and Darnold had a nice rookie connection. He caught 39 passes for 502 yards and four scores and saw at least four targets in six of the final eight weeks of 2018. That isn’t anything special, but it is healthy work for a rookie TE. Last year became a wash due to injury, but it was clear at times that Darnold missed the reliability of Herndon. Darnold continued to target the TE position, and Ryan Griffin wound up with a career-high 320 yards and five touchdowns. It’s safe to assume Herndon would’ve done more with similar opportunity. Herndon is a complete afterthought, going 26th at the position. He is free. The ceiling for him is pretty low because this is a low-volume passing offense, but he’s a high-upside matchup play because he’s very athletic, and is on the field to catch the ball, not block.
Denzel Mims, WR (ADP: 209): Mims is the biggest threat to Perriman’s continued breakout story. The second rounder out of Baylor fell into the Jets’ laps on draft night, as many projected him to be gone in Round 1. He was a touchdown machine at Baylor, scoring eight in both his sophomore and junior seasons before turning in a 1,027-yard, 12-touchdown campaign as a senior. At 6’3, 207 lbs. he’s a prototypical outside threat, who has shown at the college level that he can muscle up and defeat DBs in one-on-one and jump-ball scenarios. Basically, he’s everything Darnold has needed from a No. 1 option since he joined the Jets, and hasn’t had. Perriman represents a lot of the same skills, so maybe they’ll cannibalize each other. Or maybe they’ll provide the Jets with a sneaky effective passing game, acting as a rising tide that lifts all Jets ships. I’m not relying on Mims at all, and I’m not drafting him because I expect the Jets to run Bell into the ground. But don’t be afraid to add him early if he starts the season hot. Mims has a lot of potential.