Fantasy Football Team Previews 2020: Buffalo Bills
Must Own = Top 120
Value = 121-170
Deep Sleeper = 171 or later
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros
Must Own:
Devin Singletary, RB (ADP: 61): Singletary is a tough RB to project, but this ADP builds in the uncertainty around him pretty well. He’s an electric rusher who averaged 5.1 yards per carry last season, but all too often found himself off the field when it was go time in favor of Frank Gore, who led the team in carries. Yes, that would be different if Singletary hadn’t missed four games, but his four total touchdowns are alarming in that they aren’t just a product of poor luck. Moving forward, I’d expect positive TD regression for Singletary, but the Bills drafted a huge road grader of a RB in Zack Moss this season, and have one of the premier rushing QBs in the league as well. I still like this ADP because I’m a big believer in Singletary’s ability, but ideally he’d be your third RB.
Stefon Diggs, WR (ADP: 63): Diggs is in new digs, and finally has a clear No. 1 receiver role. Unfortunately, I don’t think the new situation will lead to much of a leap into truly elite fantasy WR1 territory for a few reasons, which I touched on here. First, the Bills are a team that likes to run, especially when they are near the end zone. Second, Josh Allen has an unbelievable arm, but not the most accurate one, so there’s going to be inconsistency built into Diggs’ performances that is layered on top of his already boom-or-bust style. The downgrade from Cousins to Allen purely as a passer is massive, so while Diggs’ great games should be epic, he’s a lock for multiple duds too. Third, while Diggs is definitely the primary target, he’s once again sharing the receiving corps with another quality option, John Brown, who duplicates a lot of what he does. This ADP is perfect, and it seems many fantasy owners are realizing the pitfalls present, and not overdrafting him.
Josh Allen, QB (ADP: 67): Allen is currently the seventh QB off the board, and we can’t talk about him properly without starting with his rushing floor. Last season Allen was doing his best Cam Newton impression, rushing 109 times for 510 yards and nine touchdowns. In 2018 he rushed for 631 yards and eight touchdowns, so this is real. QBs with this kind of rushing ability are fantasy gold, but the ones who can get busy through the air are the ones who have the supernova breakout ability. Many are picturing this for Allen with the addition of Stefon Diggs, but if you peek under the hood of Allen’s stats it’s kind of ugly.
Allen graded 30th in the NFL at the position per PFF, three spots behind Mitchell Trubisky. He ranked 28th in the NFL in QB DVOA and his yardage outpaced his Effective yardage by 352 yards. Not good. He’s athletic and a big playmaker, but just not a very consistently good QB. Unless his skills make a huge leap, this ADP is probably a ceiling, and that makes it too high.
John Brown, WR (ADP: 96): Brown had a very nice season – 72 receptions, 1,060 yards, six touchdowns – and was rewarded with a similar, better receiver being brought in to shunt him off to the side. Brown’s not going to disappear, and he has the ability to put up blowup performances just like Diggs, but I’d be surprised if he got back to 1,000 yards. The ADP strikes me as a bit high for how much I expect the Bills to run the football, so I’m probably not going to end up with Brown in most leagues.
Value:
Zack Moss, RB (ADP: 131): Moss, a third round pick, is a real threat to Singletary. While he’s not going to have breakaway runs like Singletary will, he’s a bruiser who can push the pile in short yardage, as evidenced by his double-digit rushing touchdowns for three straight seasons at Utah. He also caught 28 passes as a senior, so Singletary isn’t even completely safe on third downs. If Singletary goes down, Moss has a sneaky quick path to fantasy relevance and has the ceiling of an RB2 if he somehow gets enough work. I’d make sure I get him if I’m a Singletary owner.
Deep Sleepers:
Cole Beasley, WR (ADP: 234): There is no breakout potential for Beasley, but he was surprisingly decent last season, especially in full-PPR leagues. Beasley is a quality NFL WR and he’s become a valuable slot player who can do damage in the right matchups. In deeper full-PPR, or even half-PPR leagues, Beasley is a nice card to play in emergencies.