Fantasy Football Team Previews 2020: Atlanta Falcons
Must Own = Top 120
Value = 121-170
Deep Sleeper = 171 or later
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros
Must Own:
Julio Jones, WR (ADP: 12): Jones at No. 12 makes sense, as he’s among the most rock-solid picks anyone could make in fantasy. Jones has put up 1,300 yards or more in six straight seasons, been over 83 receptions in each of those seasons, and seen at least 150 targets four times in the last six years. Jones has consistently put up fewer touchdowns than we’d like, but that can always come, and his receptions and yardage provide the highest floor of anyone not named Michael Thomas.
Todd Gurley, RB (ADP: 29): Gurley’s rising ADP means fantasy owners aren’t as scared of his knees as they seemed early in the preseason. To me, my confidence in Gurley is less about health, and more about two things: his touchdown scoring, and his lack of competition. Gurley saw a very reduced workload last year with the Rams, and also ran behind an inconsistent offensive line, and still wound up with 12 touchdowns. As I wrote here, the Falcons don’t have any other RBs of consequence on the roster, and in games “in which he did see significant work he averaged 78 yards per game and scored in five of them.” He should also return to a role in the passing game, whereas the Rams ignored him, cutting his targets nearly in half from 2018. I think the days of RB1 overall Todd Gurley are gone, but touchdown-heavy RB2 Gurley is very much something that can happen in 2020.
Calvin Ridley, WR (ADP: 43): Ridley’s ADP suggests fantasy owners believe a breakout’s coming. I’m here for it. Ridley has already proven he can find the end zone despite playing in Jones’ massive shadow, scoring 17 times in his first two NFL seasons. His reception and yardage totals are eerily similar to his rookie year, but he amassed them in four fewer starts. The breakout was happening, and the pieces all remain in place for Atlanta to remain one of the most pass-happy offenses in football. Touchdowns can be unpredictable, but for Ridley, we can predict he’ll score a bunch.
Matt Ryan, QB (ADP: 76): Ryan has attempted 600+ passes in back-to-back seasons, and that’s resulted in yardage totals far exceeding 4,000 yards and 35 and 26 touchdown passes, respectively. Ryan does not run the ball, which does lower his ceiling, and he has shown a propensity for low-TD seasons from time to time, but you’ve got to trust that kind of passing volume. If you are looking for a stable QB, but don’t want to pay the elite Mahomes/Jackson price, Ryan is a perfect, safe option. The ADP is a bit high for me, but it is not egregious.
Hayden Hurst, TE (ADP: 112): Hurst’s ADP is rising, and that stinks, because I thought he’d be more of a value. With Austin Hooper gone, 97 targets are freed up for Hurst, who is a far superior athlete and much bigger threat with the ball in his hands. Hooper was a strong two-way TE, but Hurst is a legitimately scary weapon with elite speed for the position. He’s currently the 12th TE off the board, but if Atlanta continues to throw the ball as much as they did last year I can’t see how he doesn’t beat that.
Value:
Deep Sleepers:
Brian Hill, RB (ADP: 255): Hill is my stab at the handcuff for Gurley, based upon how terrible Ito Smith was last year. Hill wasn’t a ton better, but the Falcons didn’t address depth at the position, further pointing to their confidence in Gurley.
Russell Gage, WR (ADP: 317): For years, Mohamed Sanu was someone who intrigued us as a tall pass-catcher in an offense that threw a bunch who had the potential to score a lot of touchdowns. It never really materialized, as Sanu maxed out at 838 yards in 2018, and five touchdowns in 2017. Now, Sanu’s role belongs to Gage, and we’ll see if he can build on it. I’m betting no, but with this many passes being thrown it’s worth monitoring early in the season.