On The Move: Breaking Down The Miami RB Situation

Many fantasy relevant players have changed teams this offseason, and I’m here to talk about how that will affect them in 2020. Today we’ll talk about two RBs, Jordan Howard and Matt Breida who have both arrived in Miami.

Howard came first via free agency, and was immediately given an upgrade in ADP as the clear lead back for the Dolphins. While volume is king, the Dolphins’ offensive line was literally the worst in the NFL per Football Outsiders. They were the worst in football in adjusted line yards (3.17) and RB Yards (2.96), but the blame can’t all be laid on the hogs. They also had the NFL’s worst running backs by far, and Howard represents a big upgrade. He’s a career 4.3 yards per carry rusher, and last season he was averaging 4.4 yards per carry for the Eagles and running ahead of rookie Miles Sanders. He’s dipped below 1,000 yards for two straight seasons, but he’s never scored fewer than six touchdowns; even if Howard does cede work to the next guy I’ll talk about, Breida, there’s a strong chance his nose for the end zone keeps him fantasy relevant even with volume like he had in 2019.

There’s a chance that Breida simply steals the show. He’s never been trusted with a lead role – and likely won’t here, at least at the beginning – but he’s been over five yards per carry in his last two seasons and broke 600 rushing yards in 2019 on fewer than 10 carries per game. He’s also a better pass-catcher than Howard; while Breida does not have any 50-target campaigns on record like Howard did as a rookie, he’s posted a catch rate above 86% in back-to-back seasons. Breida’s issues are two-fold, durability, and a reputation as a system back who simply thrived in Kyle Shanahan’s offense like any other back would. There’s no way to prove or disprove that notion, but what we do know is that Breida’s been an efficiency monster any time he’s gotten an opportunity.

Then, there’s the Dolphins’ busy offseason. The additions of QB Tua Tagovailoa, CB Byron Jones and DE Shaq Lawson are eye-catching, but they’ve done work to rebuild the offensive line. They’ve signed former bust Ereck Flowers to play guard – thankfully, not tackle – and drafted four offensive linemen, including a first round tackle (Austin Jackson, USC) and second round guard (Robert Hunt, Louisiana-Lafayette). These Dolphins should be much improved from last season, and quite simply can’t fall any further from dead last. If either Howard or Breida get a dominant share of the workload, they’ll be a valuable RB2 at worst.

So what to do? Their ADPs do not help. Breida is the 96th pick overall and 38th RB taken. Howard is the 97th pick overall, and 39th RB taken. One of them will provide significant value, and I believe it will be Breida. He is a far more explosive back, a better playmaker, and has more opportunity to contribute in the passing game. Howard could rob him of some of that value by vulturing touchdowns, but at this point in the draft upside should trump safety.