5 Biggest Fantasy Losers of the Offseason

The offseason represents hope for every team, fanbase and player in the NFL, as everyone is 0-0 and has big dreams that haven’t been dashed. Well, except for the next five players you’ll read about below. These five players have watched as their teams have made moves that will hurt their production in 2020, and therefore will damage their fantasy prospects.

All rankings are courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans (QB6)

Watson is typically considered a stud, but this offseason hasn’t been kind to his fantasy prospects. Watson is among the top rushing QBs, and because of that his fantasy floor is very high, but what elevates him to the elite category is his ability to put up huge numbers both through the air and on the ground. His passing upside took a major hit this offseason when his head coach traded arguably the best WR in football, DeAndre Hopkins, and revamped the receiving corps.

The Texans traded Hopkins for RB David Johnson, once a player worth the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy, and a dual threat at the position. It’s been a minute since Johnson played at that level though, and his acquisition could signal a commitment to a run-heavy offense. To replace Hopkins’ production, Houston’s brought in Brandin Cooks, a small receiver who has put up numbers in the past but has also suffered multiple serious concussions, and past-his-prime Randall Cobb. Beyond the steep talent drop from Hopkins to his replacements, Watson had better chemistry with Hopkins than just about any QB-WR duo in football. Without that safety blanket, Watson’s week-to-week output could become even more volatile than it already was.

Watson threw for 201 yards or fewer five times in 2019, and that was with Hopkins at his disposal. Now, his two top targets – Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks – are major injury risks and his bell cow RB might be shot. Watson’s name value is going to lead to him being overdrafted, when he realistically could be a borderline QB1 in 2020.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers (QB10)

Speaking of borderline QB1s, Rodgers, once a no-brainer top QB, is even on the borderline because of his name value. At age 36, Rodgers can still ball; the problem is that his organization doesn’t feel the need to stock him up with weaponry. WR Davante Adams is elite, but Rodgers struggled to put up numbers against anyone but the worst pass defenses because of his awful array of pass-catchers. Without Adams, Rodgers was trying to make it work with Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Geronimo Allison, Allen Lazard and Jimmy Graham. In fact, if you ignore Adams’ team-high 127 targets, the next two most-targeted players were Aaron Jones and Graham.

This season’s draft was teeming with WR talent ripe to reload Rodgers’ arsenal and build on an NFC Championship appearance. Instead, they failed to take a WR in any round, and spent early capital on a QB (Jordan Love), a RB (AJ Dillon), and a TE (Josiah Deguara). This tells us that the Packers are preparing to move on from Rodgers, and that they plan to lean heavily on the running game this season.

Kerryon Johnson, RB, Lions (RB37)

Johnson was a darling entering last season, with sole ownership of the Lions backfield. He proceeded to carry the ball 113 times, averaging 3.6 yards per carry before getting injured for the second straight season. It was the second time in as many pro seasons for Johnson that he failed to get to 120 carries, and Detroit made a big move in the draft, selecting D’Andre Swift early in Round 2. It was a significant investment in a player with a three-down skill set, and whom many had as the No. 1 RB in the draft. The pair will undoubtedly share work in Swift’s rookie season, but it’s difficult to imagine Swift not taking at least 50% of the opportunities. Making matters worse for Johnson, he’s not much of a receiver, and has not established himself as a force on goal line carries, leaving the door open for Swift to overtake him for touchdown chances. At best, Johnson is looking at his workload being chopped in half, and at worst he gets nicked up and allows Swift to relegate him to change-of-pace back. Nothing about this offseason is promising for Johnson, who might need a new team to stay relevant.

Marlon Mack, RB, Colts (RB41)

Like Johnson, Mack watched as a major threat to his viability as a fantasy contributor joined his backfield when the Colts drafted Jonathan Taylor out of Wisconsin in Round 2. Mack had a solid campaign, putting up more than 1,000 yards and scoring eight TDs behind a sturdy Colts offensive line. But he wasn’t incredible, he did get hurt, and he was a non-factor as a receiver out of the backfield. That last bit is crucial, as Philip Rivers is taking over in 2020 and is known to make use of his RBs in the passing game. Melvin Gordon evolved as a pass-catcher in his time with the Chargers, and Austin Ekeler finished as a Top 5 RB thanks to Rivers’ consistent targets.

Mack graded out poorly per PFF.com as a receiver, and abominably as a pass blocker. Enter Taylor, arguably the most complete back in the 2020 draft and one who has been a workhorse for three seasons with the Badgers. Much like in Detroit, the writing’s on the wall as to whom the Colts see as the future at RB. In this case, based on how poorly Mack performed at everything but running the football, Taylor is probably an even bigger lock for work than Swift is.

John Brown, WR, Bills (WR36)

Brown was excellent last season, anchoring a Bills’ receiving corps that looked very thin before Week 1 and piling up more than 1,000 yards while catching passes from an erratic Josh Allen. The thing is, the Bills traded for Stefon Diggs this offseason. That’s a net positive for the Bills, but Diggs is sort of on Brown’s corner as far as how they go about accumulating their stats. Diggs is a downfield, big play threat just like Brown, and he’s even better at it. He’s going to eat into the 72 targets Brown saw last season, and anything less than 72 targets means you’re going to be pretty unreliable week-to-week based on volume alone. And unlike other deep threats who stay viable despite low target share, Brown’s only 5’11, 178 lbs., so he’s not an ideal red zone target. I love the player, but I no longer love the role. At his best he can be very useful, but he also hadn’t reached 1,000 yards since 2015 and battled injuries in both 2016 and 2017.

O.J. Howard, TE, Buccaneers (TE25)

Howard is immensely gifted physically, but he has not put it together with any consistency at the NFL level. When Tom Brady joined the Bucs, I was briefly ecstatic that Howard – a drug I can’t quit – might finally overcome the obstacles that have been in his way. Jameis Winston isn’t an ideal QB, and Bruce Arians’ offense doesn’t typically lend itself to TE production. And he’d flashed in the past, specifically in 2018 when he scored five touchdowns in eight games while averaging 16.6 yards per catch. But, Brady went and coaxed Rob Gronkowski out of retirement, and Gronk’s going to destroy Howard’s target share. Even if the Bucs use him like the Patriots once lined up Aaron Hernandez with Gronk, he’s still got to deal with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at wide receiver. Even in an offense that may lead the NFL in pass attempts, it’s difficult to project Howard for anything useful without a Gronk injury. Howard, at this point, needs to be cut or traded in order to find a situation where he offers value. As PFF’s No. 52 TE last season, I don’t know that he has much trade value either, so we’re looking at a non-factor.