Draft Kings Strategy NFL Playoffs: The Optimal AFC NFC Championship Lineup
With the field down to just four teams, rather than hunt for bargains, I’m simply going to provide the optimal lineup I’d roll with for the AFC and NFC Championship Games. Remember, scoring is IMPORTANT. Here is DraftKings’ scoring system.
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs ($7,700): Don’t mess around here. Mahomes is by far the top fantasy QB remaining in the playoffs, and he just annihilated the Texans for 321 yards and five touchdowns. He also has the best matchup of any QB remaining, as the Titans ranked 21st against the pass this season, 11 spots worst than the next-worst pass D (Green Bay). It’s hard to go with high-priced players with the selection so sparse, but without Mahomes at your disposal you’ll be at a disadvantage.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry, Titans ($8,700): This game has the potential to get ugly for Tennessee, but that can’t deter you from riding the big man. Henry has been on the tear to end all tears, averaging 188.5 yards per game in the postseason, and 196 yards per game if you account for the 211 yards he hung on Houston in Week 17. He scored 16 touchdowns this season, and has scored multiple touchdowns in a single game six times this year. No RB is more trusted for volume, and with Tennessee’s offensive line, they should have some success with Henry against a Chiefs defense that, while impoving down the stretch, finished ranked 29th vs. the run per Football Outsiders.
Raheem Mostert, 49ers ($4,300): The 49ers are impossible to predict, but you have to find cheap options somewhere. Tevin Coleman went off last week, but that might even be a plus for Mostert, who still logged 12 carries for 58 yards vs. the Vikings. Mostert tied for the team lead in carries this season with Coleman, and scored a team-high eight rushing touchdowns. Plus, Green Bay’s weakness is stopping the run; they checked in at 23rd per Football Outsiders after Week 17. There’s a good chance Mostert will score, and even if he’s not the bell cow, he’s going to be involved. You can’t ask for much more at $4,300.
Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill, Chiefs ($7,200): Hill was surprisingly not a big part of Kansas City’s insane comeback-turned-blowout last week, reeling in only three passes for 41 yards. It was Hill’s third straight game with no touchdowns, and sixth (really seventh, but he was injured in the first quarter of Week 11) consecutive game being held to 72 yards or fewer. Still, no receiver in football is more explosive than Hill, and with Mahomes looking every bit like the Mahomes of last year, it’s only a matter of time before he and Hill go off. After Travis Kelce’s eruption, Tennessee will surely be devoting a chunk of their prep to stopping him and that gives “The Freak” an opportunity to capitalize. I want Mahomes’ No. 1 receiver always.
Deebo Samuel, 49ers ($5,500): Samuel’s output has been inconsistent this rookie season, but his usage is not. Samuel is a featured pass catcher in this offense, and even though they rely on the running game, Samuel has cracked 100 yards three times this season and has seen at least five targets in four of the last five games. Samuel is also sneakily involved in San Francisco’s running game, receiving at least one rushing attempt in each of the past six games, scoring twice. Green Bay is vulnerable to the running game, so even though that favors 49ers RBs, Samuel’s consistent opportunity and involvement on the ground make him appealing at this price.
Mecole Hardman, Chiefs ($3,800): Hardman is like a Powerball ticket. There’s vast potential for him to do absolutely nothing, and he even posted negative points once this year. He has also scored touchdowns in four different games in which he had two catches or fewer. Hardman is the most extreme home run hitter in the NFL right now, and with Mahomes sizzling he possesses the type of upside you need with these low-priced players. His ability to break the big one makes him a nice pairing with your big-ticket players Mahomes and Henry.
Tight End
Jonnu Smith, Titans ($3,400): Speaking of upside, Smith has scored three times in his last six games, and had caught eight passes for 123 yards and a touchdown in Weeks 15 and 16 before he was rested in Week 17. The playoffs have been less prolific; he did score a touchdown last week, but he’s seen five combined targets and caught three balls for 21 yards. That should change if Kansas City forces Tennessee to play at a faster pace, and Smith is no plodder. If he gets the rock in open space he can make the Chiefs pay dearly. I’d love to slot Kelce or George Kittle in here, but it’s not viable with Mahomes and Henry locked in.
FLEX
Damien Williams, Chiefs ($7,000): Williams has resembled the RB that took us by storm last season when he stepped in for Kareem Hunt and didn’t miss a beat since re-claiming full control of the backfield. Over the last three games, he’s seen 16, 12 and 12 carries; in his last two, he’s rushed for two touchdowns each. If Kansas City’s offense is humming, you want all the Chiefs you can get. This situation is no different, especially with their matchup being friendlier than the opposition for either NFC team.
Defense/Special Teams
Packers ($2,400): There’s not much room to spend anymore, and you don’t want to roll with Tennessee against Mahomes. The Pack are the second-cheapest defense, and I like them because of their deadly pass rush. Also, Jimmy Garoppolo is an inexperienced postseason QB who has been prone to interceptions in the past. Green Bay is a low-cost bet on a dud from Jimmy G.