Fantasy Football 2019 Team Previews: Chicago Bears

Chicago Bears

Must Own

David Montgomery, RB (ADP: 50): Montgomery has been rising all offseason, and now he’s in the Top 50. The Bears are a team that will be running the ball a ton, but this is a bit high for a rookie with another highly talented option in the backfield to share work with. Montgomery was a beast in college at Iowa State, posting back-to-back seasons of double-digit touchdowns and 1,000+ rushing yards, and the Bears traded up to get him this year. He will have value in 2019, because the early down and goal line work should fall to him, but if his ADP stays here or he rises even further, I’ll be missing out on the Montgomery experience.

Tarik Cohen, RB (ADP: 57): Cohen, my preferred option in the Bears backfield, is also probably going a little too early. Cohen’s talent is not in question; rather, I’m worried that he won’t get enough opportunity to make the most of his ridiculous talent.

These ADP numbers are based on half-PPR scoring, so keep in mind that Cohen’s value rises significantly in a full-PPR format. Last season Cohen caught 71 passes for 725 yards and five touchdowns. He totaled eight touchdowns on the season, which is a bit troubling as outlier TD numbers tend to regress. On the other hand, maybe Cohen is just a star and we can expect that kind of output. I’m splitting the baby with my expectations for Cohen. I believe we’ll see Cohen’s reception totals and yardage go up even more, but at the same time he’s likely to become a pass-catching specialist, leaving all but mere scraps of the rushing work to Montgomery. This means his touchdowns will dip again, unless he can put together a campaign like James White had last year. The ADP is a bit too early.

Allen Robinson, WR (ADP: 67): This ADP places Robinson inside the Top 30 at WR, and while I think he’s interesting in 2019, I’m not prepared to draft him at this point. Robinson has the fringiest of chances to finish the season as a real WR1 – he has done it before – but he has also gotten hurt in back-to-back seasons and scored four touchdowns in the past two years. If Robinson is healthy, he could have high-end WR2 upside, but health is a major concern, as is an offense that’s going to lean heavily on its running backs and the ability of Mitch Trubisky to create havoc on the ground as well. With receivers such as Alshon Jeffery, Robby Anderson and Will Fuller going right around the same range Robinson is a bit of a reach at No. 67.

Defense/Special Teams: The Bears defense was head and shoulders better than every other defense in football last season, and there’s no reason to expect that to change. This defense isn’t on the historical level of the likes of the Legion of Boom or classic Ravens defenses, but it does have Khalil Mack. They also unleash Leonard Floyd and Roquan Smith on opposing quarterbacks, while smothering passing games with CBs Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara. This D/ST is going to be Top 5 at worst, and will likely repeat as the best unit in fantasy.

Fantasy Relevant

Trey Burton, TE (ADP: 121): Burton had serious hype entering last season, and wound up being a bit disappointing. He scored six touchdowns, which is just alright, and he only caught 54 balls despite starting every game of the season. Burton is talented, but this is a low-volume passing offense with multiple mouths to feed. Burton is going to be a much friendlier DFS option than season-long TE.

Mitchell Trubisky, QB (ADP: 133): Trubisky is one of the most interesting players in fantasy this season, as he can be one of the best QBs for fantasy owners, or be near the bottom of the heap. Trubisky is a QB you can count on for rushing production, having scored eight rushing touchdowns in his two NFL seasons and averaging five carries per game in 2018.

As a passer, it isn’t pretty, but he’s capable of good numbers. He finished last season with 3,223 yards through the air and 24 touchdowns against 12 interceptions. His 66.6% completion rate last year is impressive at first, but misleading. He averaged only 7.4 yards per attempt and 7.3 air yards per attempt. In other words, the Bears keep Trubisky’s passes short, because he’s terribly inaccurate. He had five games in which he threw for fewer than 200 yards and four in which he topped 300 yards. In Week 4 he shredded the Buccaneers for 354 yards and six touchdowns. He’s all over the map. Ultimately, Trubisky is probably going to be inconsistent with extreme highs and lows. He’s the type of QB I’d like to target late for his upside, and pair with a safer option like Ben Roethlisberger.

Anthony Miller, WR (ADP: 126): Miller is currently being drafted just inside the Top 50, and he could wind up being a major value if he’s allowed to hit his ceiling. As a rookie he scored seven touchdowns, an impressive number, but his reception total and yardage was underwhelming. That’s to be expected from a rookie, but the issue is the quality of passes he’ll see in 2019, and sharing a meager workload with Robinson and Burton. I believe in Miller’s talent, but I wouldn’t reach much earlier than this current ADP because his value is going to likely have to come from repeating his TD success.

Handcuff(s)

Mike Davis, RB (ADP: 208): Davis is a solid veteran, but unless Montgomery gets injured he’s going to have minimal value. Should Montgomery go down, it’s likely that Cohen would see an increase in work and Davis would be a TD-dependent guy. You do not need to draft him this year.

Deep Sleepers

Taylor Gabriel, WR (ADP: 291): Gabriel has the speed to top out at a Marquise Goodwin-esque level, but he’s not getting close to that in this offense without an injury to Robinson or Miller. At best he’s a FLEX in good matchups, but guys like this can be helpful in very deep leagues.