Fantasy Football 2019 Team Previews: Tennessee Titans
Tennessee Titans
Must Own
Derrick Henry, RB (ADP: 35): Henry won’t lack for opportunity in this offense, as the Titans did nothing to add to their RB group and Henry’s 215 carries led Dion Lewis by 65. Henry is a frustrating guy to own. His year-end numbers looked awesome, as he finished with 1,059 yards and 12 touchdowns. Those impressive season-ending figures obscured Henry’s maddening inconsistency; for the first six games of the season he averaged 40 yards per game with no touchdowns and zero contributions as a receiver. He failed to eclipse 50 yards eight times, and he only topped 100 yards twice. In fact, if you remove his otherworldly 238-yard, four-touchdown performance vs. the Jaguars in Week 13, his totals drop to 831 yards and eight scores. That’s still solid, but it’s not a Top 20 RB, which is how he’s being drafted now. I’d be comfortable with Henry as my RB2, but I do think this ADP is a bit high. I’m not taking him inside the Top 40 overall.
Corey Davis, WR (ADP: 93): We keep waiting for the Corey Davis breakout, but I’m not sure in can happen in this offense. While Davis has awesome athleticism and speed, it’s unclear whether Marcus Mariota is good enough, and will helm an offense that passes enough, to elevate him to elite status. Despite seeing 112 targets last year he only came down with 58 receptions and four touchdowns. This kind of output is probably Davis’ floor, but I am not convinced his ceiling is significantly higher as a Titan.
Fantasy Relevant
Delanie Walker, TE (ADP: 133): Walker is healthy and playing in the preseason, so he is relevant to fantasy owners. Prior to being injured and missing basically all of the 2018 season, Walker was 65-75 catches and 800ish yards in the bank with solid TD upside. I don’t see why that would be much different in 2019; yes, the Titans have added weaponry in the receiving corps, but Walker is the constant while the receivers will probably cannibalize one another.
Handcuff(s)
Dion Lewis, RB (ADP: 150): Lewis came to Tennessee as a major threat to Henry’s status as the clear No. 1 RB and proceeded to have his worst season ever. Lewis was a non-factor, watching his yards per carry plummet to 3.3, and scoring just two touchdowns. Lewis continued to catch the ball – 59 receptions, 400 yards and one touchdown – but he’s essentially a third down back in a low-scoring offense. Lewis will be fantasy relevant if Henry gets hurt, so he’s worth a late pick for Henry owners, but that’s it.
Deep Sleepers
Adam Humphries, WR (ADP: 180): Humphries is a good wide receiver, who had his best season in Tampa Bay after receiving his greatest opportunity yet. While I believe in Humphries the player, I do not believe in his ability to transcend a difficult situation in Tennessee. Believe it or not, this receiving corps is crowded, without the volume to feed everyone. Humphries will have some value in full-PPR formats, but I don’t see him having enough yardage or touchdowns to be worth drafting.
A.J. Brown, WR (ADP: 208): Brown, like Davis, is extremely talented. The second-rounder out of Ole Miss has a real chance to be the Titans’ No. 1 receiver, but there’s a question as to how much value that role has. It’s been demonstrated that the No. 2 receiver role in this offense lately is not rosterable, so Brown will have to break the mold to stand out. I’m a fan of Brown in dynasty leagues, and the improved pass-catchers could serve as a rising tide lifting all boats, so he’s definitely preferable to Humphries.
Marcus Mariota, QB (ADP: 233): Mariota has been a player I’ve been a fan of and defended since he entered the league in 2015, and I still believe there’s massive fantasy potential. It’s clear by now that he’s not a prolific passing QB. His Oregon numbers were clearly Chip Kelly-assisted, and in the NFL he’s hit his ceiling as a pure passer. He’s not awful, but he’s not going to be great. Players like Mariota have to run to maximize their effectiveness, and he’s flat-out never been unleashed enough to max out his potential. Mariota, despite having elite speed for the position, has never topped 357 yards on the ground or 64 rushing attempts. He’s earned a rep as a fragile player, and it’s somewhat deserved, but the Titans need to risk it if they’re going to succeed with him at QB.
The Bills and Ravens both succeeded by running their QB over and over again despite their limitations as passers; compared to Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, Mariota is a stud. The same goes for the Bears, who ran Mitch Trubisky a ton in order to make his life easier throwing the ball. If Vrabel can shake the fear of injury for his QB, then Mariota will be an amazing value at this ADP. If not, then he’s safe to ignore. Ultimately, I’d be happy to end up with him as a QB2 in two-QB or SuperFLEX formats.