Fantasy Football 2019 Team Previews: Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks
Must Own
Chris Carson, RB (ADP: 39): Carson is a very good running back, but I can tell you right now he won’t be fun to own. As an underpaid, 7th-round running back, he doesn’t have the pedigree that grants the security he’s earned. Carson was a beast last season, rushing 247 times for 1,151 yards and nine touchdowns, averaging 4.7 yards per attempt. And yet, much of the offseason was spent speculating how much work he’ll lose to second-year RB Rashaad Penny, especially since Carson hasn’t made it through a full 16-game slate yet. Any time he misses to injury is time that Penny can use to leapfrog him. Also, Carson isn’t a contributor in the passing game. I like Carson, and I think he will be a valuable fantasy option, but I do not see him possessing the upside of an RB1. So just keep it in mind when you draft him, and try to pair him up with Penny because the Seattle running game will be extremely valuable.
Tyler Lockett, WR (ADP: 49): Lockett is a screaming regression candidate after scoring 10 touchdowns last season on just 57 receptions. At 16.9 yards per reception, Lockett was a classic deep threat who overperformed, and can sink your season because he now commands a high pick. Normally, I’m on that train, but in the case of Lockett I think he’ll be great this year in a different way. Lockett will probably not score double-digit touchdowns, although with his talent we can’t rule it out. I expect Lockett to receive more than the 70 targets he got in 2018, because he’s now the undisputed No. 1 receiver and Doug Baldwin’s 73 targets have disappeared. Even if Lockett’s touchdowns fall, his targets and receptions should rise and he still has an elite QB delivering the ball. This ADP might be slightly high because of the low volume passing offense in Seattle, but he’s still going to be efficient.
Rashaad Penny, RB (ADP: 100): Penny is a first round pick from last season, so as good as Carson is, believe me when I say the Seahawks are going to try to establish this man. When he played, he was electric, rushing for 4.9 yards per carry on 85 attempts. He often looks more explosive than Carson, so even though Carson will lead the team in rushing attempts, Penny is likely to do more with his carries. And if Penny does enough, it’s not a stretch for him to overtake Carson completely and banish him to the low end of a timeshare. Neither player seems likely to hog all the touchdown chances, so Penny is probably the better value of the two Seattle backs.
Fantasy Relevant
Russell Wilson, QB (ADP: 82): Wilson is continually underrated by me, because he tends to be among the lowest-volume passing QBs in the NFL, and he doesn’t run nearly as much as other high-end running QBs. Last season was just weird; he threw for 3,448 yards, far below the yardage you’d expect from an elite QB, but he made up for it with 35 touchdowns against only seven picks. That 8.2% TD percentage was second in the NFL to only Patrick Mahomes, and is quite frankly a near-impossible rate to sustain. If that drops, and he continues to rank toward the bottom of the league in pass attempts, he’ll have to run like crazy to make up the value. And year after year Wilson just doesn’t run as much as fantasy owners would like. Wilson will have some blowup games and probably figure out a way to end the season in the Top 10, but he’s certainly not going to produce QB1 value with enough consistency to spend a Top 90 pick when guys like Lamar Jackson are going so much later.
D.K. Metcalf, WR (ADP: 143): Metcalf, a rookie burner out of Ole Miss, has fantasy owners excited because of his ridiculous big play potential. At 6’3, 229 lbs. with 4.3 speed, how can we not drool over what he might become? There are several red flags, however, one of which has already cropped up. Metcalf has been injury prone in his career, missing most of his freshman season at Ole Miss and then missing the back-end of his junior year due to injuries. He had a knee surgery a few weeks ago.
Per his draft report, he has also struggled with drops, while showing a lack of polish on his route-running and focus. Simply put, he’s a physical freak, but a work in progress as a professional receiver. While that worked for a player like Tyreek Hill in Kansas City, this is a run-first offense with an established receiver in Tyler Lockett who is kind of on Metcalf’s corner as a downfield terror. It’s going to take some time for D.K. to become a force in the NFL, and I don’t expect it to be this year. Therefore, this ADP is much too high for me.
Handcuffs
Travis Homer, RB (ADP: N/A): Homer, a sixth-rounder out of Miami, is my choice as a “handcuff” to the two primary backs in this offense. C.J. Prosise and J.D. McKissic are still here, but both are receiving backs who have never showed they can stay healthy. At this point, they are fantasy non-factors. Homer probably will be as well, but he fits the mold of a dual contributor should the injury bug bite both Carson and Penny, which is always possible.
Deep Sleepers
David Moore, WR (ADP: 272): Moore is shockingly underrated for a guy who doesn’t have much competition for reps on the outside. With Lockett operating primarily out of the slot, Moore’s top competition is Metcalf, who we’ve established is raw and dealing with knee issues. Jaron Brown, who never made a name for himself in Arizona and caught 14 passes last year for the Seahawks, was supposed to battle Moore too, but he was one of the Seahawks’ final cuts.
Moore, meanwhile, drew 53 targets (third most on the team) and averaged 17.1 yards per catch while scoring five touchdowns. Those targets and numbers should all rise with Doug Baldwin gone, as long as Metcalf, who is raw, doesn’t soak them all up. Tremendous value here, even if he’s missing the start of the season with a shoulder injury.