Fantasy Football 2019 Team Previews: Cleveland Browns

Cleveland Browns

Must Own

Odell Beckham Jr., WR (ADP: 13): The Browns are probably the most interesting team in fantasy football this year, and that’s largely because of Odell Beckham Jr. OBJ is currently the fifth wide receiver off the board, but I think an argument can be made for him to be the top choice at his position. In my humble opinion, there isn’t a more talented receiver in football. For his first three seasons, with a reasonably competent version of Eli Manning throwing the passes, Beckham terrorized defenses. He posted three straight double-digit touchdown campaigns, reliably caught between 91-101 passes and easily cleared the 1,000-yard barrier. In the two seasons since, he’s been hampered by injuries as well as Manning’s decay. Beckham has played in 16 games over the past two seasons, totaling just nine touchdowns. The injuries are admittedly worrisome, but his talent remains. And now he’s not only upgrading big-time at QB to Baker Mayfield, he’s going to be surrounded by playmakers in his receiving corps and at RB.

Beckham’s production can also be maximized when he’s in a good place mentally. The Giants’ losing clearly became toxic, which should be alleviated with this iteration of the Browns. They are expected to win, and he’ll be relied upon. He’s also sharing the receiving corps with his close friend Jarvis Landry, with whom he dominated at LSU. The stars are aligned for OBJ to return to his peak, and if he is healthy I see him returning first round value. Draft him with confidence.

Nick Chubb, RB (ADP: 18): There’s no doubt that Chubb is a great talent. He proved that last season by averaging 5.2 yards per carry and scoring 10 total touchdowns despite not being the starter for a full season. And that’s without noting that Carlos Hyde averaged 19 carries a game for six weeks and scored five times. The issue here is Cleveland’s unnecessarily crowded backfield.

The Browns inked Duke Johnson Jr. to a three-year, $15 million contract this offseason and head coach Freddie Kitchens keeps insisting that Johnson will play a “big role” in the offense. They also went out and signed Kareem Hunt; while Hunt will be suspended for eight games, he was likely going to be a Top 5 fantasy pick had he not been suspended and remained with the Chiefs. He’s a supremely talented back in his own right, possibly more gifted than Chubb, and it’s not likely he’ll be activated to rot on the Browns’ bench. So as much as I believe in Chubb’s ability and in this offense, he’s not going to receive the workload he deserves. And if that’s the case, I don’t see him justifying a second-round pick.

Jarvis Landry, WR (ADP: 59): Landry disappointed a lot of fantasy owners last season, and he’s fallen to the very end of the Top 25 at the position. Landry saw his targets dip from 112 in his last season in Miami to 81 with the Browns, while his touchdown total (4), regressed to where it’d previously been for his entire career. Something worth noting, however, is that despite 31 fewer receptions, Landry’s yards per game barely moved. He began to breakout of the short yardage role he’d been typecast as, displaying more versatility for Cleveland as it became necessary by an utter lack of other playmakers. Landry is far too talented to be limited to running short routes out of the slot, and with Beckham on board, he can’t be the focal point of the opposing secondary anymore. Landry is going to thrive, and likely go for 1,100 yards rather than just under 1,000. His days of catching 100+ passes are probably done, but he’ll do more with the targets he does see. This ADP is perfectly fine.

Baker Mayfield, QB (ADP: 60): Mayfield is hot stuff right now, going sixth among QBs just 10 picks after Aaron Rodgers. I’m absolutely a believer in Mayfield, but I don’t know that I’m advocating taking a QB this early. Mayfield certainly has the weapons at his disposal to put up huge numbers – and he impressed with 266.1 yards and just about two touchdowns per game without Odell Beckham in town – but in a pass-happy league there are QBs with similar numbers, and longer track records, going later. Mayfield also provides added value on the ground, but not at the level of guys like Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen. I don’t have much issue with Mayfield’s ranking, or even really his ADP. But I’m not going to be passing up fifth round talents at RB or WR to lock him in.

David Njoku, TE (ADP: 89): Njoku is very  talented, but this ADP is probably on the early side of where I’d draft him. For all Njoku’s size, he hasn’t been much of a touchdown scorer, which he’ll need to be this season to carry value. Cleveland’s array of RBs will be busy, and Beckham and Landry are going to soak up the vast majority of targets from Mayfield. Njoku figures to be boom-or-bust, much like Eric Ebron was for the Colts in 2018. In weeks where Ebron didn’t score, he hurt his owners. I’d rather draft an elite TE earlier, or take a flier at the position much later than spend a pick in this range on Njoku.

Defense/Special Teams: This unit wasn’t as great as you’d expect for how many big names populate the roster, but this year there’s even more names! Myles Garrett, Olivier Vernon and Sheldon Richardson are going to terrorize quarterbacks, racking up sacks and, hopefully, fumbles. They’ve got a stud CB in Denzel Ward, and rookie Greedy Williams could make for a stifling pair. The Browns will likely find themselves near the top of the league in turnovers and points off turnovers. The big knock is playing in a division pretty stacked with offensive talent.

Fantasy Relevant

Kareem Hunt, RB (ADP: 95): Time to get a little awkward. Hunt, as we know, is suspended for eight games because of an ugly incident of him shoving and trying to kick a woman that was caught on camera. That was appalling, but it doesn’t apply to what he’ll do once he’s on the field, because we know that the Browns are going to put that man on the field. His talent is so great that even with a guarantee of missing more than half the fantasy season he’s going ahead of LeSean McCoy, who enters 2019 as a starting running back.

Hunt set the league on fire as a rookie, rushing for 1,327 yards and eight touchdowns, and was doing it again last year before his heinous violence came to light. Obviously, playing for the Chiefs was a benefit to him, but the Browns will be a potent offense as well. It’s hard to envision him not playing well once he’s suited up. Drafting him this high is not advisable, because you’ll have to tie up a roster spot for a long time and potentially miss breakout players in the process. But if he falls further, he could be worth a gamble, especially if he can be thrown in an IR spot. Regardless, no one should be taking him at this point in drafts.

Handcuff(s)

Duke Johnson Jr., RB (ADP: 165): Johnson is a weird case. He’s been productive in the past and he’s reasonably well-paid. The Browns’ coaches have also insisted he’s going to get work. But with Chubb in place, and elite pass-catchers everywhere, how can we buy in? Johnson’s main job is to catch the rock out of the backfield; he does that very well, but Cleveland’s upgraded so much that it isn’t really necessary. NFL coaches aren’t bound to tell us the truth, and I don’t think they are in this case. Johnson is not going to see the work necessary to be fantasy relevant unless he’s traded, and even if Chubb goes down, Johnson will be relegated to limited duty upon Hunt’s return. He’s only draft-worthy in deep PPR leagues as of this writing.

Deep Sleepers

Antonio Callaway, WR (ADP: 265): Callaway is completely off radars, and for good reason. He barely caught 50% of his targets, and disappeared way too often to rely upon. But, the theme of this Browns preview is T-A-L-E-N-T. Callaway has it in abundance. He’s very unrefined, but he still averaged 13.6 yards per catch and scored five touchdowns. And if Beckham gets hurt for the third year in a row, it’ll be Callaway replacing him on the outside. Cleveland has so many options right now that I don’t think Callaway should be drafted, even in deep leagues, but he’s someone who may make an impact at some point in 2019.