Fantasy Football 2019 Week 12 Waiver Wire Pickup Advice
Is your fantasy team in need of new blood? Each week I’ll bring to you the best pickups to make ahead of the waiver deadline. All the players I list will be owned in fewer than 50 percent of leagues, with the ownership percentage coming from Yahoo.com
Quarterbacks
Sam Darnold, Jets (22% Owned): Darnold was definitely not seeing ghosts Sunday, as he did what good QBs are supposed to do when faced with garbage defenses. Darnold tore up the Redskins in Washington for 293 yards and four touchdowns, finishing as a QB1. You can expect these kinds of performances to continue for the rest of the regular season, as his remaining regular season slate is as follows: vs. Oakland, at Cincinnati, vs. Miami. You can ride Darnold to the playoffs if you are in the hunt, and you don’t have a locked and loaded Top 5 QB. Those matchups are as good as it gets.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dolphins (10% Owned): If matchups are your thing, Fitzpatrick is a decent fallback option. Fitz gets Cleveland this week, followed by a home game against the Eagles, and a date with the Jets. Fitz’s best game of the year was in Week 9 vs. Gang Green, when he put up 288 yards and three scores. His ceiling is close to Darnold’s, but his matchups are a bit worse, and his team is too, even if Miami owns a win over the Jets.
Jeff Driskel, Lions (3% Owned): Driskel is a startable desperation option, but only for this week. Keep an eye on Matthew Stafford’s injury updates, but it’s hard to believe anyone is coming back in two weeks from a fractured back. Driskel is likely to be in there, and he should be expected to tear up the Redskins’ atrocious D with the awesome pass-catching weaponry that surrounds him.
Running Backs
Derrius Guice, Redskins (48% Owned): Guice did not return as a conquering bell cow, but he did show us why he’s remained relevant despite only playing his second game in two years. Guice only ran for 24 yards on seven carries, but that’s forgivable against the Jets’ Top 5 run defense. He also took his lone reception to the house for a 45-yard receiving touchdown, giving a tantalizing glimpse of his three-down potential. Based on his injury history, I am not convinced Washington will lean on him heavily until 2020. He will probably get more work than Adrian Peterson moving forward though, and his explosiveness makes him very playable.
Alexander Mattison, Vikings (29% Owned): Mattison’s value in any given week ranges from FLEX to unplayable, as it’s dictated by the score of the game. But when he’s received more than a handful of carries he’s proven his talent. At this point Dalvin Cook owners who don’t have Mattison on their roster are just begging the fantasy gods to rob them of their best player. Mattison is a league-winning add if Cook goes down, and smart owners in contention will likely be shedding their least valuable player for speculative handcuff adds. Next week is the last of the byes, so grab him now while he remains free of charge. That’s going to change.
Kalen Ballage, Dolphins (37% Owned): Ballage is the clear back to own in Miami’s backfield; that is the worst situation in fantasy, but he’s still someone you can throw in the FLEX. Last week he saw his carries drop from 20 to nine as the Dolphins fell behind early. Still, he saw 15 carries/targets, and scored a rushing touchdown. It was an example of volume trumping talent; Ballage literally averaged one yard per carry and managed to have a relevant fantasy outing. You won’t want to start Ballage, but you can.
Malcolm Brown, Rams (6% Owned): The Rams backfield isn’t the goldmine it once was, but it remains valuable now that Jared Goff’s turning into a pumpkin before our eyes. Todd Gurley shockingly drew 25 carries last week, so the Rams may be ready to unleash him in full force as they push for the postseason. Brown, however, saw five carries behind the main man and turned it into 15 yards and a score. Darrell Henderson didn’t see the field, so Brown has regained the handcuff role and should be a priority for all Gurley owners. He isn’t quite as tasty an add as Mattison, but if Gurley gets hurt you’ll feel pretty good about playing Brown.
Nyheim Hines, Colts (17% Owned): Marlon Mack’s injury took one of the most defined backfields in the NFL and cast it into utter chaos. All the backs in Indianapolis are worth adding in the wake of Mack’s broken hand, but Hines is the most desirable because his role is steady. He’s not going to be the bell cow, but he will be the Colts’ passing downs back. He’s explosive as a receiver, and he should serve as a James White-lite option. I won’t be excited to play him, but he can be a serviceable FLEX, especially in PPR formats, while Mack is gone.
Jonathan Williams, Colts (4% Owned): Williams has been a tease since he was drafted in 2016, but talent has never been an issue. When thrust into a major opportunity this past week, he ripped the Jaguars for 116 yards on 13 carries, and caught his lone target for 31 more yards. If he’s given the primary down role, he can be comfortably considered a strong RB2 behind the Colts’ offensive line. The problem is, despite the high usage in Week 11, we have no idea how Frank Reich is going to deploy his backfield with a few days to prepare for not having Marlon Mack.
Jordan Wilkins, Colts (1% Owned): Wilkins looms as a threat to the Jonathan Williams breakout. He only has 87 career carries, but in that extremely limited sample he’s been an explosive back, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. If I had to guess, I believe Wilkins will be afforded the first opportunity to fill in for Mack in Week 12, as long as he’s healthy – and he claims he is ready to go. Truthfully, this whole backfield has likely become a mess a la Kansas City, and the figuring out the best RB each week will essentially be a blind dart throw.
Gus Edwards, Ravens (7% Owned): Edwards, like Mattison and Brown, is not someone you can comfortably play in any given week. He also has the potential to swing a fantasy postseason with an injury to Mark Ingram. Ingram owners are foolish if they don’t grab him, because if an injury happens he will not be cheap.
Wide Receivers
Sterling Shepard, Giants (40% Owned): Shepard has been practicing in full again, and while I do not love the matchups he has, he is the Giants’ undisputed No. 1 receiver when he plays. Shepard is a better pickup for playoff-bound rosters; the schedule is a little gnarly for the next two weeks — or three as Philly has improved — but his postseason dates with the Dolphins and Redskins are mint.
Mecole Hardman, Chiefs (33% Owned): Without knowing the extent of Tyreek Hill’s hamstring injury, Hardman is now a must-own. Do NOT confuse that for me saying Hardman will just step right into Hill’s role and production. Hill is one of the very best wide receivers in football. At this point, Hardman is an extremely fast playmaker, who can rip off week-winning plays. He is not, however, consistent by any means. The Chiefs have a Week 12 bye, and it’s very possible that Hill is back by Week 13. Don’t go nuts spending on Hardman, but if you’ve got Hill and enough depth to roster two bye week WRs, it makes sense to throw a few dollars his way. Without Hill, no Chiefs WR stands out as a clear “best.” But Hardman absolutely has the most potential.
Hunter Renfrow, Raiders (14% Owned): Renfrow is almost the complete opposite of Hardman. This rookie lacks the explosiveness of Hardman, but he’s a crisp route-runner and as become arguably Derek Carr’s favorite target. Renfrow has been thrown to five times or more in three straight games, and posted an 83.3% catch rate in those games. He is a definite FLEX option in PPR formats, and makes for a reasonable desperation/bye week crunch option even in standard leagues. His matchup this week vs. the Jets is especially tasty.
Darius Slayton, Giants (25% Owned): I’ve cooled on Slayton a bit due to the news that Sterling Shepard was recently a full participant in practice. The return of Shepard bumps Golden Tate down, and relegates Slayton to a boom-or-bust option, rather than a high-volume one. He also has two tough matchups on deck – at Chicago, vs. Green Bay – before getting to a more favorable date at Philadelphia. He’s talented enough to roster, but I wouldn’t bid more than a buck with Shepard on the mend.
Tight Ends
Ryan Griffin, Jets (3% Owned): Griffin has the same beautiful matchups as Sam Darnold that I mentioned up top, and he does not have Chris Herndon breathing down his neck either. Entering Week 11, here’s how Griffin’s upcoming opponents, the Raiders, Bengals and Dolphins, ranked against TEs: 15th, 31st, 16th. Griffin has also become a steady target for Darnold, drawing four vs. Jacksonville (two touchdowns), eight vs. Miami (six catches, 50 yards), and five vs. the Redskins (109 yards, a touchdown). He mixed in a total dud vs. the Giants, but such is life at the TE position. He’s a fine rest of season start.
Noah Fant, Broncos (28% Owned): It took a bit, but the production and usage are starting to catch up to the talent for Noah Fant. After mostly duds all season, Fant put up 115 yards and a score in Week 9, then followed that up with 60 yards in Week 11, on a whopping 11 targets. He’s extremely athletic, and if given enough opportunity can make big plays. He’s reminiscent of Evan Engram, and if he can keep getting targeted like he was vs. the Vikings, he can do damage.
Dallas Goedert, Eagles (19% Owned): Goedert is touchdown dependent, but he’s scored in three of his last four games, and the Eagles WR corps beyond Alshon Jeffery is pretty haggard. He’s seen at least five targets in three straight games, so he’s no more risky than the following TEs who are all owned in significantly more leagues: Eric Ebron (79% Owned), T.J. Hockenson (52% Owned):, Jack Doyle, (42% Owned), Vance McDonald (53% Owned). These guys have so much less upside, especially considering what he becomes if Zach Ertz goes down.