Fantasy Football 2017 Team Preview: New England Patriots
This is the 2017 fantasy preview of the New England Patriots. In this preview I will provide the Must-Own players, Sleepers, and Longshot players with upside very deep in drafts.
Must-own players are those who should be owned by someone in any league. Handcuff RBs can qualify, as they are often very important to a fantasy team over the full schedule. Sleepers are secondary players that you may find on the waiver wire at some point in the year, or may go undrafted in shallower auction-style leagues. The Longshots are players with microscopic ADP, who are being drafted at the very end of drafts, or more likely not drafted at all.
All ADP data is courtesy of FantasyPros.com.
**I will list all kickers, but I cannot give analysis on them. Sorry :-/
MUST OWNS
Rob Gronkowski, TE (ADP: 20): Gronk is an absolute freak of nature, and everyone knows it. When healthy, no TE comes close to him. This is all fact. I have also been strongly against taking Gronk, as talented as he is, in the first round. For the sake of brevity, I will link you HERE to get the fully fleshed out logic. Now, though, he’s going in Round 2. I still think it’s a little early, but I won’t quibble with drafters who take the leap. If he stays healthy, there’s no doubt he will vastly outperform 20th overall.
Tom Brady, QB (ADP: 23): Like Gronk, there’s no questioning Brady’s greatness. Unlike Gronk, there’s not much risk for injury. But if you think I’m about to co-sign a Top 25 pick on him to be your QB, I’m not. Unlike the many experts, I’m not completely against going for the cream of the crop QBs in earlier rounds; with that said, this is just too early. First, Brady is 40 damn years old. I know he’s incomparable to other players who came before him, but human biology dictates he decline at some point. It might not be this year, but it’s coming. If it’s this year, you will be upset about taking him one spot of, let’s say, Amari Cooper. Second, the Patriots have a strong running game. Although Brady can light it up through the air, and he refuses to throw picks, his TD total may not reach the heights of Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees simply because the Patriots are a better overall offense. Brady is phenomenal, but let him fall a little bit, or feel comfortable drafting someone like Brees a little later on.
Brandin Cooks, WR (ADP: 27): I already loved Cooks the moment he wound up in New England, and that love has grown since the awful injury to Julian Edelman. There was no doubt that Cooks, by virtue of his big play potential, would be Brady’s top-scoring wideout. Now, he’s unquestionably the main non-Gronk target in the offense. For a small guy, Cooks has no issues scoring touchdowns, finding the end zone 17 times in the last two years. He has gone over 1,000 yards in back-to-back seasons, which is no small feat when Drew Brees is spreading the ball around. He is a bona fide WR1 in real life and fantasy; sometimes he puts up duds, but they are well worth the upside.
Mike Gillislee, RB (ADP: 61): Gillislee lost some luster as a hamstring issue robbed him of preseason action, but I remain bullish on the de facto RB1. I am not foreseeing an 18-touchdown explosion like what LeGarrette Blount was able to achieve, but Gillislee is a much better back. He’s never had a full workload, but in limited action last season for the Bills he managed to score eight touchdowns despite playing behind LeSean McCoy. He has averaged exactly 5.7 yards per carry in each of the last two seasons, and shown flashes of talent as a receiver. Gillislee is good, and this ADP is likely to prove a major value.
Defense/Special Teams (ADP: 127): I don’t think this team has a plethora of fantasy scorers on defense, but the unit should be a quality collection overall. It doesn’t hurt that they will play four games against the Jets and Bills, who are openly tanking, and the Dolphins with Jay Cutler under center.
SLEEPERS
James White, RB (ADP: 130): White is underrated in any league that rewards receptions. Sure, there’s a lot of mouths to feed in the New England backfield, but White emerged as a potent pass catcher for Brady. His role has increased every season of his career, and he totaled 86 receptions in 2016 as well as five touchdowns. There’s competition for White, but he has proven himself capable. If he keeps the same role, he will be way better than a barely-Top 50 RB.
Chris Hogan, WR (ADP: 210): Beware! All fantasy owners who are suddenly excited about Hogan, whose ADP here can be ignored because it will rise, need to realize something very important. Beyond being a white wide receiver, Hogan and Edelman are different players, and it’s not a lock that he will simply slide into Edelman’s high-target slot role. Hogan is three inches taller than Edelman, and more of a deep threat. While Hogan is in line for more targets than expected thanks to this Edelman injury, no one should be penciling him in for 90 receptions. Hogan’s stock is up, but he should remain firmly in the sleeper category. The Pats’ receiving corps is crowded too.
LONGSHOTS
Rex Burkhead, RB (ADP: 157): Burkhead is being compared to Danny Woodhead, and it might be apt. The problem is that the Patriots have a ton of quality players in his way, some of whom – Gronk and Cooks in particular – are going to soak up the bulk of the work. With those two putting up most of the receiving numbers, and Gillislee looking like he can do it all, will there be any consistent opportunities for Burkhead? I don’t think so, unless there are injuries.
Dion Lewis, RB (ADP: 194): Lewis, in my humble opinion, has more upside than Burkhead does. He’s more proven as a high-usage pass catcher out of the backfield, and he’s faster and more dynamic with the ball in his hands. The problem is that White has surpassed him, and should have earned the team’s trust by now. If White got hurt, I’d put my money on Lewis stepping into that role though.
Danny Amendola, WR (ADP: 243): Are you looking to take advantage of the Edelman injury? While most will gravitate toward Chris Hogan, the correct receiver to target might be Danny Amendola. It was Amendola, not Edelman who was expected to become a star with Tom Brady, and it’s Amendola, not Hogan, who is a near-clone of Edelman in terms of size and speed. Amendola is brittle, and there are several receivers who might benefit from this situation – New England is very flexible – but Amendola is the perfect, pure Edelman replacement and he still seems to be an afterthought.
KICKER
Stephen Gostkowski.