Fantasy Football 2017 Team Preview: Green Bay Packers
This is the 2017 fantasy preview of the Green Bay Packers. In this preview I will provide the Must-Own players, Sleepers, and Longshot players with upside very deep in drafts.
Must-own players are those who should be owned by someone in any league. Handcuff RBs can qualify, as they are often very important to a fantasy team over the full schedule. Sleepers are secondary players that you may find on the waiver wire at some point in the year, or may go undrafted in shallower auction-style leagues. The Longshots are players with microscopic ADP, who are being drafted at the very end of drafts, or more likely not drafted at all.
All ADP data is courtesy of FantasyPros.com.
**I will list all kickers, but I cannot give analysis on them. Sorry :-/
MUST OWNS
Jordy Nelson, WR (ADP: 13): Nelson is the sixth wide receiver off the board, and that’s fine. He’s an absolutely amazing receiver, a touchdown machine with the best QB in football throwing him the rock. So, why isn’t he higher? Jordy did finish as the No. 1 overall WR last year, has scored at least seven touchdowns in every season since 2011, and has scored 13 or more touchdowns in two straight campaigns. Nelson has been over 1,300 yards four times in the last five years, and lives at 15 yards per catch. He is the total package. Draft him as high as you want, even if it’s ahead of Julio Jones or Odell Beckham Jr.
Aaron Rodgers, QB (ADP: 17): Rodgers is far and away the best QB in fantasy, routinely finishing in the top 5 in rushing among QBs as well as the top 1 in passing. Rodgers will win his owners multiple weeks almost single-handedly, but that doesn’t change the fact that his ADP has crept too high. Yes, he’s fun as hell to own, but QB really is a deep position. When players like Andrew Luck are going past pick no. 60, it’s hard to justify Rodgers at 17th overall. Let him fall a little bit and then take him, or die a little inside, but pass and grab a RB/WR here.
Ty Montgomery, RB (ADP: 44): Montgomery draws some mixed opinions among experts, but I – not an expert – am on the converted wide receiver’s side. I think this is a pretty solid ADP for the Packers’ starting running back, especially in leagues that reward receptions. Montgomery averaged a ridiculous 5.9 yards per carry last season and he also caught 44 passes for 348 yards. I do not expect Montomery to carry the ball 300 times, nor do I foresee him averaging 70-80 rushing yards like a typical workhorse. However, it’s no stretch to see Montgomery averaging upward of 90 yards from scrimmage and posting good touchdown numbers.
Davante Adams, WR (ADP: 46): Adams is the fourth Packer inside the Top 50 ADP, which goes to show you what a maestro Rodgers really is. Of the four, Adams is the shakiest because he owes so much of last year’s big production on touchdown production. Adams, who finished as a WR1 last year, didn’t even get to 1,000 yards receiving (997, but still). He was saved by his 12 touchdowns; does this mean he is an Eric Decker-esque TD machine, or is he due for regression? Adams is due for regression, but this offense is too good for him to tailspin. That said, the ADP is too high.
Martellus Bennett, TE (ADP: 84): Bennett has frustrated many fantasy owners over the years, but I’ll fall for it one more time. I’m drawn to Jared Cook’s numbers in 2016 once he got healthy, especially in the postseason. Cook put up 181 yards and two touchdowns in the final two playoff games for Green Bay, and Bennett is a MUCH better player than Cook. Rodgers has never really had a big time tight end, so I won’t hold past TEs’ numbers against the Black Unicorn. I really like his potential to break out.
SLEEPERS
Randall Cobb, WR (ADP: 93): Cobb might be done as a major fantasy asset. In 2015 he saw 129 targets – two more than his breakout in 2015 – but turned them into 79 catches, 829 yards and six touchdowns. Cobb has only topped 1,000 yards once in six seasons, and last year he dropped to just 60 catches. Some hold out hope for Cobb’s TD potential to make him a steal, but it appears he’s been passed by in this offense. The ADP seems slightly high to me, and I think the upside for Cobb is more wishful thinking than reality.
Jamaal Williams, RB (ADP: 144): Williams, a fourth-round pick out of BYU, has generated a lot of buzz as a guy who can supplant Montgomery and be the Packers’ workhorse. His college resume is outstanding, so he may well be a stud RB, but you’d have to completely ignore what Montgomery accomplished to assume Williams is going to run right past him. Montgomery owners should draft Williams as a handcuff because Williams appears very talented, but no one should count on him becoming a star in 2017.
LONGSHOTS
Jeff Janis, WR (ADP: N/A): This is a pure hunch, because no stats back up Janis being fantasy relevant, and he’s being drafted so rarely that he doesn’t have an ADP. Right now he’s listed as the Packers’ kick returner, and some progress there might earn him time at wide receiver. I believe Cobb is in decline, and Janis may be the benefactor. Don’t draft Janis, because you don’t have to. If he has a big Week 1, pounce.
KICKER
Mason Crosby.