Fantasy Football 2017 Team Preview: Atlanta Falcons
This is the 2017 fantasy preview of the Atlanta Falcons. In this preview I will provide the Must-Own players, Sleepers, and Longshot players with upside very deep in drafts.
Must-own players are those who should be owned by someone in any league. Handcuff RBs can qualify, as they are often very important to a fantasy team over the full schedule. Sleepers are secondary players that you may find on the waiver wire at some point in the year, or may go undrafted in shallower auction-style leagues. The Longshots are players with microscopic ADP, who are being drafted at the very end of drafts, or more likely not drafted at all.
All ADP data is courtesy of FantasyPros.com.
**I will list all kickers, but I cannot give analysis on them. Sorry :-/
MUST OWNS
Julio Jones, WR (ADP: 5): Jones is a superstar who has averaged 100+ yards per game for the last four seasons in a row. He is, however, slightly frustrating at times for two reasons. First, he doesn’t score as many touchdowns as you’d expect from someone so elite. Jones has scored double-digit touchdowns exactly once in his career, and it was all the way back in 2012. Second, he does go through one-off ruts in which he’ll do next to nothing in a game. With all that said, he’s about as rock solid as it gets, and he’s capable of scoring 50 fantasy points by himself on any given Sunday. I wouldn’t take him ahead of the big 3 RBs (Le’Veon Bell, Ezekiel Elliott, David Johnson), but anywhere after that is appropriate.
Devonta Freeman, RB (ADP: 10): Freeman has an ADP placing him at the end of Round 1. This is fine, but I might argue for Freeman going even earlier than that. If you’re the type of owner who wants to lock up as sure a thing as possible at RB, you can’t do a lot better than Freeman. Do not be concerned by the fact that Freeman’s workload is lighter than other elite backs; he’s overcome somewhat sparing usage to rush for 1,000+ yards in back-to-back seasons, score 11 touchdowns during each campaign, and average 64 catches and 520 yards through the air. Freeman succeeds through efficiency, and while that might scare some owners in the first round, he has proven he’s the goods, and the lighter workload lessens his risk for injury.
Matt Ryan, QB (ADP: 48): Ryan was out of control last season, throwing for almost career-low seven interceptions. Ryan’s also bringing the whole gang back, so there’s ample reason to expect him to continue being a top QB.
However, this ADP is a bit much. Whereas last year he likely got you to the playoffs with his return on investment, you’re now paying for last year’s numbers. Prior to 2016, Ryan had never thrown 12 or more interceptions for five straight years, and he’d only reached 30 touchdowns once in that span. Ryan is talented, but last season sure does look a bit fluky; if he returns to his normal levels and you spent a fifth-round pick on him, you’re almost definitely behind the 8-ball at RB or WR. I’d stay away and scoop up Jameis Winston or Matthew Stafford a few rounds later.
Tevin Coleman, RB (ADP: 63): Coleman is another wizard of efficiency, scoring eight touchdowns despite notching just 118 carries. Coleman averaged 4.4 yards per carry, and 13.6 yards per reception; and the Falcons weren’t shy about throwing his way, targeting Coleman 40 times. Still, beware this ADP. A lot of Coleman’s points came via touchdowns, and touchdowns are notoriously fickle. Any downturn in Ryan’s performance, or if Coleman is unable to strike paydirt on long runs and catches, and he will not return good value being drafted this high. He’s a must-own for Freeman owners, and worth it here for them; otherwise, he’s highly risky.
SLEEPERS
Taylor Gabriel, WR (ADP: 154): Gabriel profiles as very boom-or-bust, but last season he boomed quite often. Gabriel only caught 35 passes for 579 yards, but he also scored six touchdowns, and averaged 16.5 yards per catch. Gabriel is like DeSean Jackson, only much, much cheaper. His role is carved out, so Gabriel is a nice bench option for bye weeks, or if you suffer an early injury.
LONGSHOTS
Austin Hooper, TE (ADP: 182): If we finish 2017 wondering why Jones and Sanu didn’t finish with as many TDs as we had hoped for, Hooper could be the reason why. I don’t foresee Hooper finishing as a Top 5 TE, but I could see him having a Hunter Henry-ish type season, which means few receptions but a high touchdown total. He will be worth monitoring, and if he is drawing red zone targets early in the season, snap him up for cheap.
Mohamed Sanu, WR (ADP: 220): Sanu, because of his size, is often thought of as a potential red zone stud. So far in his career, it hasn’t really happened. The Falcons’ offense is high-octane, but Sanu is unlikely to be more than a Draft Kings play against poor pass defenses. With that said, he is the No. 2 in a high-powered offense so he warrants mention.
KICKER
Matt Bryant.