Fantasy Football 2017 Preview: Sleeper Ghosts

Sleeper ghosts are a new creation of mine. These are guys whom are still young, were previously hyped like crazy, and are now readily available late in drafts. They’re available late because they failed to deliver on their hype – sometimes spectacularly – and now fantasy owners want nothing to do with them.

Here, I’ll identify a few and then recommend whether they should be brought to life, or left to haunt the waiver wire.

Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks (ADP: 171)

I usually go in order of ADP, but Lockett gets top billing since he’s the inspiration for this idea. One year ago Lockett was the most exciting receiver in Seattle, billed as the bringer of big plays and sure to be a frequent touchdown collaborator with rising star Russell Wilson at QB. He did average a healthy 14.6 yards per catch, but he only hauled in 41 passes, he fell short of 600 yards, and he caught one lonely touchdown pass. The targets, catches and receiving yards were all eerily similar to his rookie campaign, which was the root of all the excitement; but his rookie campaign featured six touchdowns, which everyone should know by now is often a fickle number. Now, Lockett is buried on ADP lists. He’s an afterthought, with Doug Baldwin entrenched as the WR1 in Seattle, and TE Jimmy Graham looking like their best weapon. Should you care about Lockett?

I say sure. He is still a clear No. 2 for the Seahawks, who may or may not have a strong running game. Eddie Lacy is a question mark, Thomas Rawls became a question mark with some truly putrid performances in 2016, and C.J. Prosise is a quality change-of-pace back whom we don’t know about beyond that role. If this becomes more of a passing offense, Lockett has all the physical ability to be a DeSean Jackson-esque threat, serving as a boom-or-bust FLEX option capable of swinging multiple weeks. At this ADP he’s a fine player to take a flier on.

Eric Ebron, TE, Lions (ADP: 125)

Ebron is one of the most hyped rookie TEs ever, and he disappointed big time. Then, WR Calvin Johnson retired, leading most to think Ebron was in for a big increase in targets. He was thrown to more, but he also battled injury (constant theme) and only caught 70 passes for 537 yards and five touchdowns. Last season he caught a career-best 61 passes, notched 711 yards, but only scored once for an offense that ran the ball fewer than 40 percent of the time. The hype has completely disappeared, with Ebron becoming the type of TE that owners view as a steady Eddie who won’t throw up a zero, but also won’t give you much more than five or six points. That’s pretty sad for a guy picked 10th overall. So is Ebron lurking as a breakout threat?

Ehhh. As talented as Ebron looked coming out of UNC, he’s been consistent in the NFL. He has never shown he can be healthy for a full season, and for all his size he’s not a favorite red zone target of Matthew Stafford’s. Ebron could put up big numbers if he has a fluky season with big TD numbers, a la Hunter Henry, but history has shown that Detroit has many mouths to feed, and Ebron tends to get fed last.

Duke Johnson, RB, Browns (ADP: 133)

Last year Duke was the RB to own in Cleveland. Forget about Crowell, pay attention to Duke’s role as a receiving back on a team that’ll always be playing from behind. Sure his yards per carry were low, but when he gets the lion’s share of carries that will turn around! Instead of a breakout, he stayed in place, but got there differently. He saw the exact same amount of targets in 2016 (74) that he did the previous year, doing slightly less with them. He saw reduced carries (73), but averaged 4.9 yards per rush, an increase of 1.3 yards. That’s a big leap, and more consistent with the type of player he was with the Miami Hurricanes in college. Either way though, he’s been an okay RB for two years and he’s still on the Browns. So should you care about him?

Based on this ADP, yeah. Crowell is currently going No. 33 overall, and 15th at his position. That is 100 picks ahead of Johnson, who improved on the whole from his rookie season. Many believe that Crowell’s showing in 2016 will mean he becomes the bell cow back for Cleveland, but that’s ignoring Johnson’s success as well. Both players will factor into the Browns’ success this season, and when they’re forced to throw, it should still be Duke Johnson getting the call.

Tavon Austin, WR, Rams (ADP: 229)

Austin, another Top 10 pick in his draft, has shown plenty of flashes of being an impact fantasy player. I’ve even talked myself into Austin more than once. But the fact of the matter is that for all his speed, and for all his game-breaking plays that he’s had, he’s never caught 60 passes or topped 503 receiving yards in his four NFL seasons. In 2015 Austin did score nine touchdowns, but four of them were rushing scores. Austin has been utilized semi-regularly in the running game for the Rams, but not nearly enough to make him a must-start at any point in his career. So is he finally ready to explode?

Nah. Very little has changed for Austin. He’s never had a good QB, and even though he has 2016 No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff at QB now, Goff looked horrific last season and is still operating behind a leaky offensive line. I realize at this ADP it’s no risk, so go ahead and draft him. But I can almost guarantee you’ll drop him in short order.

Michael Floyd, WR, Vikings (ADP: 315)

Floyd was a darling entering last season, primed to become a WR1 in the Cardinals’ explosive offense. Instead, Floyd bombed, proving inconsistent before getting hurt, and then getting arrested, which resulted in him getting cut. The Patriots picked him up, and he caught four passes. Floyd’s season was a nuclear disaster. Now he’s in Minnesota, where he hopes for a fresh start.

Unfortunately, there’s a lot working against him. First, he’s competing with Stefon Diggs, Laquon Treadwell, and Adam Thielen for targets, as well as red zone monster TE Kyle Rudolph. He’s dealing with a solid RB combo of Latavius Murray and Dalvin Cook. He’s also got a noodle-armed QB in Sam Bradford. If this is where he hopes to resurrect his career, he might want to touch up his resume and have it on ZipRecruiter just in case. Do not bother with Michael Floyd, because talent isn’t always everything.

 

 

Raimundo Ortiz