Fantasy Football 2017 Preview: Beware The Terrelle Pryor Hype

Terrelle Pryor is the shiny new toy in Washington D.C., and judging by his ADP – No. 39 overall, the 18th WR off the board – fantasy owners are buying into him being a big-time performer. I’m an optimistic person by nature, but I’ve got to be the bad guy today and pump the brakes on the Terrelle Pryor hype.

Let’s start with what he did last season. Pryor caught 77 passes for 1,077 yards and scored five total touchdowns (four receiving). Those are good numbers; they don’t scream elite wide receiver, but we must be fair and recognize he had one of the worst QB situations in the league. Pryor put up those stats catching passes from a combination of Cody Kessler, Robert Griffin III, Josh McCown, Charlie Whitehurst and Kevin Hogan. It’s hard to do very well with that quintet of mediocrity, so Pryor gets credit for performing as well as he did. But, his production is what it is, and those numbers are the product of 140 targets, which tied him for 17th in the NFL with Golden Tate.

Pro-Footballreference.com did the work for me, so I’ll pass this along; that’s a catch rate of 55 percent. You’d like that to be a bit higher if you’re relying on him as a week-in, week-out contributor. Maybe upgrading to Kirk Cousins this season will make a difference, but it’s worth noting that Pryor is a converted quarterback and 2016 was his first full-time campaign as a wide receiver. He’s now moving into a totally different offense with a brand new quarterback and improved competition for targets.

It’s important also to remember whom Pryor is sharing the field with. Jamison Crowder saw 99 targets last year (67.6 percent catch rate), and he’s the only familiar face for Cousins in the receiving corps this year, as DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon are gone. That familiarity makes him a great bet to lead the team in targets, especially since he primarily lines up in the slot and is trusted in third-down situations. Along with Crowder is Josh Doctson, who is essentially a rookie this year, but was taken in the first round last year. You might think its ridiculous to wonder about a rookie with no NFL track record, but he’s as talented as they come and the Redskins are invested heavily in his success. Finally, they have arguably the best tight end in the NFL not named Rob Gronkowski. Jordan Reed is without a doubt the most potent and important non-Cousins player in this offense. Pryor didn’t face anything like this competition in Cleveland, so if he only scratched out 77 catches with 140 targets, what happens when a ton of those looks disappear?

My next concern is Kirk Cousins, a QB everyone but me is ready to consider on the cusp of elite. He’s coming career highs in attempts (606) and yards (4,917), and averaged 307 yards per game. He’s also forging ahead without Sean McVay, the offensive coordinator who has spearheaded the best two seasons of his career. He’s playing in an improved division, with an almost entirely new receiving corps, and a storm cloud of pressure and controversy regarding his contract situation. There’s a lot to worry about with Cousins, and if he struggles, Pryor is going to struggle.

Lastly, look at the players going in Pryor’s vicinity. Allen Robinson, one year removed from a 1,400-yard, 14-touchdown season is the WR ranked directly ahead of Pryor. The WR behind him is Demaryius Thomas, who has met or exceeded 1,000 yards receiving and 90 catches for five straight seasons. Can you honestly see Pryor reaching such heights? It’s hard to fathom.

Terrelle Pryor is a good player, and he will contribute to any fantasy team. However, if you take him too early, and rely on him too heavily, you’ll find yourself with a lower ceiling than necessary to have a championship squad.