Fantasy Football 2017 Team Preview: Buffalo Bills
This is the 2017 fantasy preview of the Buffalo Bills. In this preview I will provide the Must-Own players, Sleepers, and Longshot players with upside very deep in drafts.
Must-own players are those who should be owned by someone in any league. Handcuff RBs can qualify, as they are often very important to a fantasy team over the full schedule. Sleepers are secondary players that you may find on the waiver wire at some point in the year, or may go undrafted in shallower auction-style leagues. The Longshots are players with microscopic ADP, who are being drafted at the very end of drafts, or more likely not drafted at all.
All ADP data is courtesy of FantasyPros.com.
**I will list all kickers, but I cannot give analysis on them. Sorry :-/
MUST OWNS
LeSean McCoy, RB (ADP: 7): McCoy earned this ADP by putting up one of the best seasons of his career in 2016, but I’m a little concerned with his workload decreasing. Rex Ryan isn’t in charge anymore, and most coaches these days are reluctant to give their starter 284 total touches like McCoy had last season. The new regime may want to trust QB Tyrod Taylor a bit more, and a healthy Sammy Watkins makes passing the ball more enticing. Other than that though, McCoy is pretty much a rock solid pick. He’s a clear notch below the top three RBs, but anywhere after them is reasonable.
Jordan Matthews, WR (ADP: 150): Matthews is a clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver in Buffalo with Sammy Watkins being gone to Los Angeles, so I think this ADP will rise in short order. At the moment of this writing, Matthews is the 53rd WR taken. Now that he can expect a big rise in targets, that seems low for him. However, don't go crazy; Matthews should be relatively touchdown-dependent, and he's going to be part of an offense that attempted the fewest passes in the NFL last season and has one of the best RBs in football in the backfield. His quarterback is talented, but not a typical drop-back passer. Matthews' ceiling is a WR2, but his price is more like a WR3/FLEX.
SLEEPERS
Tyrod Taylor, QB (ADP: 124): As you can see from the “Must Owns,” the cupboard is kinda bare offensively in Buffalo, which definitely contributes to this meager ADP. But that doesn’t mean Taylor can’t produce! Losing Sammy Watkins is a brutal blow to his value, despite Taylor being, statistically, the best running QB in the NFL. Of course Cam Newton is the gold standard, but last year Taylor had more rushing attempts, more yards and more touchdowns on the ground than Cam. Prior to the trade of Watkins, I felt that Taylor had an excellent shot of sliding into the Top 10 at QB based on his prolific running, and the ability to score major points on bombs. With Watkins gone, Taylor's path to the Top 10 is much tougher. He can get there if Jordan Matthews takes a leap, but it's more likely that the Bills have stunted his rise.
Anquan Boldin, WR (ADP: 223): Boldin's ADP screams Longshot, but I expect his ADP to rise with Watkins gone. Boldin is old, slow (for a WR), and built like a TE. None of that sounds great, but Boldin wasn't brought in to rack up elite stats. He was brought in to score touchdowns, and last year he proved he can still do that, even at his elderly age. Boldin found the end zone eight times in 2016, and he's an excellent bet to lead the Bills in receiving scores this season. At this ADP he's basically free, so feel very comfortable spending one of your final three picks on this red zone specialist.
LONGSHOTS
Zay Jones, WR (ADP: 166): Longshot is right. Jones is a rookie whom the Bills took in the second round out of East Carolina, hardly a powerhouse. He was productive at East Carolina though, especially in his third and final season when he caught 158 passes for 1,728 yards and eight touchdowns. Jones is not going to light the NFL on fire, but he will have a chance to immediately be the No. 2 option in this passing game, which I’m anticipating will be treated with more respect by the new staff. Jones’ floor is Robert Woods, who was occasionally relevant last year. If you spend your final pick on him and wind up with Woods, that’s not too bad.
Jonathan Williams, RB (ADP: 156): At this point Williams is a pure handcuff to McCoy, who will get almost all of the work provided he’s healthy. But, if McCoy got hurt, Williams has legit upside. He only saw 27 carries as a rookie, so we couldn’t learn much; his college career, however, shows what he’s about. Williams improved steadily, posting a 1,190-yard, 12-touchdown season as a junior in Arkansas before a foot injury robbed him of his senior campaign and torpedoed his draft stock. There’s an NFL-caliber back here, it’s just that we may not really see him.
KICKER
Steven Hauschka.