Fantasy Football Preview 2017: Breaking Down & Valuing Running QBs
Are you looking to gain an edge this season? Committing to rostering QBs who add value on the ground could be a great way to do that. Below, I’ll break down the running QBs into categories and give insight into whether or not their current rankings and ADP make sense for you.
Running QBs
Cam Newton, Panthers (Ranking: 8, ADP: 76)
Cam Newton is hands down the top running QB in football. If you like to consider a QB’s ground contributions when drafting, Newton is the top dog. And the good news is that he will come on a discount in 2017. Last year Newton was drafted high after finishing No. 1 overall; he disappointed, battling injury from what seemed like day one, and seeing his touchdown total drop in half. He also saw his rushing attempts dip from 132 in 2015 to 90 in 2016. If he isn’t easily clearing 100 rushing attempts, Newton’s passing will not make up the difference. That said, he’s proven he is not a franchise passer. That’s different from a franchise player. Carolina will be smart enough to realize that if he’s to be worth his money, he has to run and score touchdowns. As the No. 8 QB, his ADP is going to match the risk he poses.
Tyrod Taylor, Bills (Ranking: 20, ADP: 142)
Taylor is one of my favorites, especially in auction leagues using a four-point passing TD format. Taylor has posted similar rushing numbers in back-to-back seasons, typically rushing six or seven times for 40 yards or so. That’s meaningful, and unlike others we’ll get to, Taylor finds the end zone. His passing has also proven consistent. He will deliver around 3,000 yards and 20ish touchdowns. Taylor is NOT someone who will sneak into the top 5, but he will deliver bankable production, and cost you little on draft day.
Russell Wilson, Seahawks (Ranking: 6, ADP: 75)
Wilson, on the other hand, is one of my least favorite values. He’s very similar to Taylor in that he posts less-than-elite passing numbers and relies on rushing to make up the difference. And yes, Wilson is a significantly more prolific passer than Taylor, but he only has the reputation of an elite running quarterback. He’s only topped 26 touchdown passes once in five seasons, and in three of the last four seasons he has managed a single rushing touchdown. The potential is tantalizing, but the sample size is big enough now to not make Wilson one of the first QBs off the board.
Colin Kaepernick, Free Agent (Ranking: N/A, ADP: N/A)
You can’t draft Kaepernick because he’s not on a team, and once he is, he’ll almost assuredly be a backup. But there aren’t many QBs in this league that are more dangerous on the ground. If he somehow sneaks into a job he will be a worthy matchup play, as well as a cheap source of points in daily fantasy. I would not sleep on him if he can work his way into playing time.
QBs Who Can Run
Aaron Rodgers, Packers (Ranking: 1, ADP: 21)
Whereas the “Running QBs” rely on their ground skills to be draft-worthy, the passers on this list are supplemented by their rushing abilities. Rodgers is the No. 1 consensus QB largely based on his insane passing ability, but it’s what he offers on the ground sets him apart from the likes of Drew Brees and Tom Brady. He’s rushed for 3+ touchdowns five times in his career, and he averages 3.5 attempts per game. Last season, he ran 4.2 times a game, the most he’s run since 2010. Green Bay would prefer he do his moving behind the line of scrimmage, but he’s too great a freelancer to not contribute in this fashion as well.
Andrew Luck, Colts (Ranking: 5, ADP: 56)
Luck is waiting in the wings to take Rodgers’ spot as the top dog. It helps that he runs even more often than Rodgers. Luck has averaged at least four carries per game in each of the past three seasons, and has averaged at least five yards per rush in each of the past two seasons. In fact, this rushing ability, and Luck’s nose for the end zone (12 rushing TDs in his first three seasons) give him a leg up on Brady and Brees, who are both currently ranked ahead of him.
Marcus Mariota, Titans (Ranking: 13, ADP: 121)
There aren’t many QBs with more potential to skyrocket up the ranks than Mariota. All he has to do is be unleashed as a rusher. For his first two seasons Mariota has oscillated between solid and mind-blowing. He rarely turns the ball over, and he has been able to explode in a number of games for four or five touchdowns. However, despite elite speed and a history of rushing at Oregon, Mariota ran less than Rodgers and Luck. Mariota is not a scrambler; he can be a super fast version of Russell Wilson if the Titans want him to be, using designed runs to open up the offense even further for RBs DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry. I think in Year 3 we might just see that, in which case there’s really no ceiling for his fantasy value.
Dak Prescott, Cowboys (Ranking: 9, ADP: 86)
Prescott can boogie, but he’s more Cam Newton than RGIII. Prescott does not have the dynamic upside of Mariota, but he does have a better chance at consistently scoring touchdowns on the ground. That makes him a great value as the No. 9 QB in four-point passing TD formats, although beware if his ADP continues to creep upward.
Blake Bortles, Jaguars (Ranking: 22, ADP: 179)
Bortles is not a good quarterback, but he has been useful at times for fantasy owners. He scored twice on the ground in 2014, and three times last season, rushing more than 50 times in each of his three NFL campaigns. Bortles is in the bin of streaming starter types, and this output on the ground gives him a slight edge over pure pocket passers in the same vein.
Deshaun Watson, Texans (Ranking: 18, ADP: 151)
Watson is a total wild card. He’s likely to start Week 1 for Houston, and in college he scored 26 touchdowns on the ground over the course of three seasons. Watson is known as a pass-first signal caller, but he registered more than 200 carries as a sophomore at Clemson. If you’re seeking a rushing QB, it’s probably better to scoop up Watson as a flier in the round before you pick your kicker and defense than to spend an early pick on Wilson.
Short Yardage Scorers
Jameis Winston, Buccaneers (Ranking: 12, ADP: 94)
Winston is a pure pocket QB, but as a rookie he scored six times on the ground. Even though he struck paydirt just once last season, Winston cannot be slept on as a threat near the goal line. Winston’s offense is loaded with playmakers in the passing game, so you can comfortably expect an upward trend in those numbers. If he meets in the middle on the ground, he will be a weekly must-start.
Alex Smith, Chiefs (Ranking: N/A, ADP: N/A)
Smith is very boring, and although he rarely turns the ball over, he also doesn’t rack up much yardage or throw for many touchdowns. He’s merely a matchup play for the most part. But, he runs. In 2016 he saw his attempts drop dramatically, but he upped his Rushing TD total to five. If you are looking to play matchups, there will be times when you’ll want to dial up Smith mostly because of his legs.