Fan Duel Strategy NFL Playoffs: The Optimal AFC NFC Championship Lineup

With the field down to just four teams, rather than hunt for bargains, I’m simply going to provide the optimal lineup I’d roll with for the AFC and NFC Championship Games. And remember, scoring is IMPORTANT. Here is FanDuel’s scoring system

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs ($9,500): Last week is all you need to see to decide to play Mahomes this week, price be damned. I tend to be all about value and matchup at QB, but there’s only two games, and none of the remaining QBs – yes, even the current version of Aaron Rodgers – who offer the upside Mahomes does. And the kicker is that Mahomes’ floor right now is probably close to the ceiling for Ryan Tannehill and Jimmy Garoppolo. I’m not putting myself at a disadvantage by not using him.

Running Backs

Damien Williams, Chiefs ($7,600): Williams is money in the bank as long as he’s getting work. He’s seen double-digit carries for three straight games, with LeSean McCoy becoming a very distant memory. He’s scored four touchdowns in his last two games, and ran all over the Chargers for 124 yards and two scores in Week 17. Tennessee had a Top 10 rushing defense this year, but with the Chiefs, the Titans must focus on slowing down Mahomes. Williams also contributes in the passing game too, so you’ve got two avenues to points.

Raheem Mostert, 49ers ($5,800): Mostert is not a safe play. The 49ers have three very good RBs who are used interchangeably, often resulting in one or two of them not doing a whole lot in any given game without warning. The thing is, with so few games on the slate you do want to have a piece of the 49ers running game. If so, Mostert is probably the pick despite Tevin Coleman’s blowup game last week. Mostert tied with Coleman for the team lead in carries, and he led the team in touchdowns (8). Even with Coleman going off last week, Mostert still logged 12 carries for 58 yards. Prior to last week, Mostert had scored in six straight games, totaling eight touchdowns.

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill, Chiefs ($7,400): Hill has not exceeded five receptions in four weeks, and hasn’t scored in his last three games. Even stranger, he has failed to score a touchdown in six of his last seven games (Hill left Week 11 with an injury in the first quarter). I’m not dissuaded from rolling with him though, because his talent is unbelievable and Mahomes looks as good as he did when he was ripping up the NFL last season. Hill is Mahomes’ No. 1 receiver, and he can only be caged for so long.

A.J. Brown, Titans ($6,800): Brown is a freakishly built athlete, and one of the most talented receivers in the NFL right now. He’s still a risk, but it’s got nothing to do with him. Brown is the No. 1 receiver on a team that, if they have their way, won’t be passing. He’s got two catches for 13 yards combined in the Titans’ two playoff games while Derrick Henry has run wild. The Chiefs offense is likely going to force the Titans to throw to keep up, however, and that means they’ll have to pepper Brown.

Emmanuel Sanders, 49ers ($5,500): Sanders is a very different build and archetype than Brown, but he’s in a similar circumstance. The 49ers running game is dominant, and that has hurt Sanders’ targets. Still, Sanders has had a few blowup games since joining the Niners in Week 8, and while the San Fran defense is among the best in football, we have seen them allow great QBs to get hot and light them up. If that happens – and Aaron Rodgers certainly qualifies as great – Sanders will be called on to make plays for Jimmy G in just his second playoff start.

Tight End

George Kittle, 49ers ($7,000): Kittle has recently started to garner buzz that he has risen up in the wake of Rob Gronkowski’s retirement and become the best TE in football. It’s possible, even though Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz also still exist. Regardless, while Kelce stood out last week with three scores in a wild comeback, Kittle is the one with the best matchup. Green Bay ranked just 24th against opposing TEs per Football Outsiders, and Kittle isn’t even the most expensive TE on the week. Auto-start on FanDuel.

FLEX

Deebo Samuel, 49ers ($6,300): This week’s lineup is heavy on Chiefs and 49ers, because those are the teams I expect to win. Samuel is a featured part of this offense, even moreso than Sanders, but the stats don’t always reflect it. That’s a reflection of how dominant San Francisco is on the ground, not on Samuel’s ability. He’s currently on a five-game receiving TD drought, but he has supplemented his receiving work with some involvement on the ground, resulting in two rushing touchdowns in his last three games. Someone will produce big numbers in the San Fran passing game, so between these guys and the Chiefs I’ve selected, you’re taking multiple bites from the apple.

Defense/Special Teams

Packers ($4,000): The Packers are the cheapest defense on the week, and that’s perfect. They have one of the best pass rushes in football, and they are facing an inexperienced QB who has had bouts with turnovers. They could get lit up, but going cheap allows you to take less risks with your skill guys, and none of the available defenses are slam dunks.