DFS Strategy Week 8: Best Bargains on Draft Kings
The best way to cash on weekly fantasy football sites is to load up on as many stars with good matchups as possible. Due to budget restraints, however, fantasy players must sacrifice other positions to nab the stars they want.
Here, you'll find the top bargains at each position on Draft Kings that will let you splurge elsewhere. And remember, scoring is IMPORTANT. Here is Draft Kings’ scoring system.
The bargains are listed in the order I like them.
Quarterbacks
Alex Smith, Redskins ($5,000): It’s worth noting, always, that running quarterbacks are a great value in scoring formats with four-point passing touchdowns. Smith, often an underwhelming fantasy option, is a QB who can run. While he has only scored one touchdown on the ground this year, he’s only had one game with fewer than four attempts. He also has a golden matchup this week against the Giants, who own the NFL’s fifth-worst passing defense and just traded a starting CB (Eli Apple) and a star defensive tackle (Damon Harrison). Don’t miss this chance to shred a tanking, lifeless defense for just $5,000!
Case Keenum, Broncos ($5,100): Keenum always poses a risk, and he hasn’t thrown for three touchdowns since Week 1, but his upcoming matchup with Kansas City is inviting for two reasons. First, the Chiefs’ defense ranks just 26th in the NFL per FootballOutsiders.com. Second, even if their pass defense is stronger than their abysmal run defense, the high-scoring nature of their offense could force Denver into a pass-heavy game script. If so, it’d be kind of difficult for Keenum not to produce with weapons like Emmanuel Sanders, Demaryius Thomas and Courtland Sutton running routes. Keenum is much riskier than Smith, but he has higher upside.
Derek Carr, Raiders ($5,200): Turnovers are a problem for Carr, but attempts and yardage are not. Carr has lost WR Amari Cooper, but he wasn’t connecting with any consistency with Cooper anyway. He still has Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant at his disposal, as well as pass-catching RB Jalen Richard, who will see an uptick in snap count with Marshawn Lynch hurt. Carr has to incensed at the narrative coming out that he cried after being hurt, is losing his teammates’ respect, and will potentially be traded since he’s not a good enough building block for Jon Gruden. Ball all of that up into a home matchup against the Colts’ weak defense, and you have a potential breakout game for a young, talented passer.
Running Backs
Phillip Lindsay, Broncos ($5,200): Lindsay has been one of those RBs who passes the eye test with flying colors, but has his ceiling dinged because he’s in a committee in which he loses out on some goal line opportunities. Right now, however, his primary competition (Royce Freeman) is battling some kind of ankle sprain. While Freeman may suit up this week, he’s certainly taking a backseat to Lindsay, and Lindsay’s increased workload will becoming against the absolute worst run defense in the NFL through seven weeks in Kansas City. Fire up Lindsay here, he’s scoring a touchdown.
Chris Carson, Seahawks ($4,300): Carson is the Seahawks’ workhorse, and even if Mike Davis steals a few carries from him, outside of a blowout situation you’re going to get around 18 touches for Carson as a floor. This week, Carson is slated to face the Lions, owners of the 30th-ranked run defense in the NFL, and he’s nice and fresh coming off a bye week. If you can get that level of work – three weeks ago he registered 32 carries – at a price that is well below the average player, it’s a no-brainer. He presents very little risk at $4,300.
Marcus Murphy, Bills ($3,300): Murphy is an extremely risky play, and you’ll need to pay attention to the injury reports. If LeSean McCoy doesn’t get out of the concussion protocol, Murphy at worst will own passing downs for Buffalo in a game against the Patriots, where they’ll likely be down big from the get-go. If McCoy does play, he likely will see a reduced workload after suffering a head injury. Again, if Buffalo finds themselves chasing points, Murphy is a better bet for snaps than Chris Ivory; Ivory is the nominal No. 2 back, but his skillset isn’t suitable for coming from behind. This play is much stronger if McCoy is out, but even in small doses Murphy’s 5.9 yards per carry can play.
Wide Receivers
Doug Baldwin, Seahawks ($5,500): Baldwin finally looked like himself in Week 6, catching eight passes for 91 yards. If he’s truly reestablished himself as the primary target in the passing game, he’s in for a huge game vs. the Lions, who have been the third-worst defense in the NFL against No. 1 receivers. Enjoy this price now, because if he has a big game you won’t get Baldwin this cheap again.
Jordy Nelson, Raiders ($4,700): Nelson’s prime has passed, that’s for sure, but he remains a threat. Despite not topping 50 yards in the last three weeks, he’s scored touchdowns in three of his last four games, and he’s suddenly been thrust into the No. 1 receiver role with Amari Cooper being shipped off to Dallas. The Colts are in the bottom eighth of the NFL in defending against No. 1 receivers, and their pass defense ranks just 21st overall. While Nelson might not put up big yardage, it’s a good bet that he’ll be back in the end zone in Week 8.
Chris Godwin, Buccaneers ($4,500): Godwin is not a flashy name, but he’s very, very consistent. He’s put up 50 or more yards in four of six games, scored a touchdown in four of six games, and put up at least 40 yards and a touchdown in the same game four times. In an offense that relies as much on the pass as the Buccaneers do, you know what you’re going to get from Godwin. This week Tampa Bay gets the Bengals, who rank a weak 24th vs. the pass, and have a high-scoring offense of their own to keep the pass attempts flowing from start to finish.
Tight Ends
George Kittle, 49ers ($5,500): Kittle is a heavily targeted, and very talented pass-catcher. While some tight ends are valuable because of their volume, Kittle is potentially special because his talent maximizes his opportunity. Kittle really isn’t too far off from the Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz tier, but his newness and his beater QB, C.J. Beathard, are keeping his price down. Good! Use him now, and enjoy the cake matchup vs. the Cardinals.
Eric Ebron, Colts ($4,900): Ebron turned in a dud last week, but it wasn’t completely unexpected. While he will continue to soak up a nice target share, the return of T.Y. Hilton relegated him to second option. He was also up against a better-than-you-think Bills defense. This week the Colts get the worst defense in football against tight ends, the Oakland Raiders. Ebron is as good an option as you’ll find this week. As good as Kelce and Ertz are, save the money and ride with Kittle or Ebron, as both have the chance to be TE1 this week.
C.J. Uzomah, Bengals ($3,500): Uzomah didn’t see the targets we’d hoped for last week as the Bengals’ three-down tight end, but he salvaged the game with a touchdown. The two targets was alarming, but it was a bizarre game in which Kansas City boat raced the Bengals from the start. This week, Cincinnati gets a pathetic Buccaneers defense, which ranks a ghastly 30th vs. opposing tight ends. He won’t have the targets of Kittle or Ebron, but Uzomah has about as good a chance at a TD or two, and he costs a full $2,000 less than Kittle.