Draft Day Dart Throws: Late, Late Desperation and Upside Picks

Ever been in a draft and the last guy you wanted at a position was sniped? Or maybe you simply aren’t sure who to pick as the draft wears on because nobody is standing out. Whatever the case, here are some super late picks that offer upside, or necessary production in spots where you’re lacking.

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

Catchers

Sam Huff, C, Rangers (ADP: 429)

Huff, 23, is unlikely to be with the Rangers to start the season. Because of this, he’s not an option for fantasy owners to draft with their last pick, plug in and hope he works out. If your league has NA spots, however, you might be wise to just draft him last, and rush to waivers to pick up the best undrafted catcher until we see Huff get called up. It normally takes catchers some time to adjust to the big leagues, but we got a taste last season and it was pretty delicious. Huff hit .355 with three home runs in 22 games, and that’s without having ever swung at a pitch beyond High-A. Yes, he had a ridiculous BABIP (.471) and that level of production is obviously not sustainable, but Huff is a kid with a 70/70 Raw Power grade who mashed double-digit taters at Single-A and High-A in 2018 and 2019. Texas is going to be one of the worst teams in baseball, so they should be giving Huff a look at some point in 2020 and he can offer plus power at a scarce position, and become a valuable keeper with this ADP.

Power

Rowdy Tellez, 1B, Blue Jays (ADP: 305)

Tellez is an underrated bat, and he’s become an afterthought in a lineup that looks completely loaded. Playing time appeared to be an issue at one point this offseason, but when the signing of Michael Brantley fell apart, Tellez once again looks locked in as the Blue Jays’ regular DH. Tellez’s career has been tantalizing, but also unsatisfying so far. In 2018 and 2020 he hit .314 and .283, respectively; in 2019 his average plummeted to .227, but he did smash 21 home runs in just 11 games. He’s shown power as a minor leaguer in the past, blasting 23 home runs at Double-A in 2016 and 13 home runs in 2018 at Triple-A. He’s also been very impressive by Statcast numbers, ranking in the 79th percentile in exit velocity (90.4), 81st percentile in Hard Hit % (45.3%) and 81st percentile in xSLG (.472). He also posted an 8.4% Barrel rate in 2020, and a 13.2% Barrel Rate in 2019. Tellez smokes the ball when he makes contact, and while he will strike out more than we’d like, his ability to crush pitches gives him a lot of power upside for someone going after pick No. 300. If you keep seeing first basemen getting plucked from your queue on draft night, Tellez is someone you can just scoop up super late while focusing on deepening another position.

Stolen Bases

Jon Berti, 2B/SS/3B/OF, Marlins (ADP: 286)

Look, we’re all hunting for steals, as they’ve become super rare. If you are unable to get a high-steals option early, you’ll be stuck hunting specialists later in the draft that can really cost you elsewhere. While Berti qualifies as one of these guys –he’s got no power – he can be valuable in multiple ways beyond his stolen base total. For one, he’s eligible at four positions, which is incredibly useful, especially in deeper leagues. That means he also provides above-average stolen bases at four different spots. Berti also has great plate discipline, posting a 15.4% walk rate in 2020 and an OBP of .348 or higher in back-to-back seasons. That means despite his lack of power, Berti is not an epic sinkhole for leagues that use OBP or OPS as categories. For a steals specialist, that is incredibly rare as they typically clock in with sub-.700 OPS figures. That can get ugly, and Berti won’t do that to you. Ultimately, the question for Berti is playing time, as he’s currently projected to be a utility option for Miami, rather than a starter. His best bet for playing time is to unseat youngster Jazz Chisolm, who has had a bit of a rough spring, or take advantage of an injury somewhere down the line. Lastly, it’s worth noting that even though his steals total could be depressed by sub-optimal playing time, he has swiped 26 bags on 31 attempts the past two seasons. Even if he doesn’t have the volume we want, he’s very efficient on his attempts when he does play.

Myles Straw, SS/OF, Astros (ADP: 316)

2020 was ROUGH for Straw, who slashed .207/.244/.256 across 25 games while striking out in a quarter of his plate appearances. And yet Straw still stole six bases on eight attempts, and still appears to be Houston’s starting center fielder entering 2021. Straw was much better in 2019 as a 24-year-old, hitting .269, striking out only 18.8% of the time and walking 14.8% of the time. That production was far more in line with who he was as a minor leaguer, and is a lot closer to what he’d be like this season if I had to guess. Like Berti, Straw is going to hit for zero power. He’s also got elite speed, ranking in the 91st percentile last season, and inside the top 1% in both 2018 and 2019 with identical 30.1 Sprint Speed scores.

The lack of power and the plethora of better pure hitters in Houston’s lineup likely precludes Straw from hitting much higher than eighth in most games this year, but even where he’s at his speed should earn him a permanent green light. If he can regain his good plate approach, there’s a chance Straw offers consistent stolen bases with a non-harmful OBP/OPS that keeps him from destroying you everywhere else.

Batting Average

Yuli Gurriel, 1B/3B, Astros (ADP: 267)

Sticking in Houston, Gurriel came off a career year in 2019 and dropped a stanky deuce all on your roster, slashing .232/.274/.384 with only six home runs in 36 games. While the home run drop-off was somewhat predictable, as his previous high was 18 before smashing 31 in 2019, he’d never previously hit worse than .262. In fact, he’d been at .291 or better for three straight seasons. Attribute the sudden cratering of his batting average to bad luck -- .235 BABIP – and an extremely small sample size. Gurriel’s career in MLB is marked by high contact, so as his BABIP stabilizes, his average will return. If you are hoping to see those big HR numbers again, you’ll be sorely disappointed, but if you just need a batting average boost to counteract some all-or-nothing boppers, Gurriel will help you.

Tommy La Stella, 1B/2B/3B, Giants (ADP: 313)

La Stella is very similar to Gurriel, except with an extra position of eligibility, no accusations of blatantly cheating, and greater injury risk. La Stella ranked in the 100th percentile of K% (5.3%) and 99th of Whiff % (11.2%). La Stella also walked 11.8% of the time last season, and has shown much more willingness than Gurriel to take free passes. Of the two, La Stella is my preferred option, although the Giants’ lineup is super butt so Gurriel will have many more RBI and run opportunities.

Saves Potential

Giovanny Gallegos, RP, Cardinals (ADP: 269)

Gallegos is part of a crowded Cardinals bullpen that, per Fangraphs’ Roster Resource, includes a four-man committee for saves. Most believe that returning fireballer Jordan Hicks will be in the driver’s seat, but the fact of the matter is that Gallegos was better than Hicks even in 2018 and 2019, when we last saw Hicks exploding radar guns. Sure, Gallegos isn’t regularly throwing triple-digit smoke, but he was still striking out two more batters per nine while walking almost two fewer per nine in 2019. Gallegos struck out a career-best 12.6 per nine last season and picked up four saves while blowing zero. Beyond Hicks, his competition includes former starter Alex Reyes, who walked 6.41 per nine last year, and Andrew Miller, who will turn 36 this season and had an ERA over 4.00 in 2018 and 2019. Gallegos is very much the best pitcher in this group, and is my bet to lead the team in saves by season’s end.

Pete Fairbanks, RP, Rays (ADP: 323)

This ADP is likely skewed, because anyone paying attention knows that ace reliver Nick Anderson is out for a long time with a torn UCL. Fairbanks is not going to be undrafted in your draft, but there’s still a lot of murkiness surrounding this bullpen. Tampa Bay rarely does anything conventionally, so you’re right to worry about Diego Castillo being in the mix. Castillo will definitely have opportunities as well, but it was always likely that all three would have chances to close. Now, at worst it’s a two-man show, and Fairbanks was far superior to Castillo in 2020. He finished with a 2.70 ERA last season, struck out more than 13 per nine, and even ascended past Anderson in the postseason as he struggled. Castillo struck out far fewer batters (9.55 per nine) and his 1.66 ERA hid an ugly 4.53 FIP and 4.06 xFIP. A .176 BABIP obscured Castillo’s ineffectiveness last season, but these are numbers the Rays are absolutely aware of. And hey, if Fairbanks dominates in the role he has every chance of keeping it even when Anderson returns from injury.

Starting Pitcher Upside

Freddy Peralta, SP/RP, Brewers (ADP: 301)

Peralta has earned the fifth spot in the Brewers rotation, and like Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff before him, is displaying some signs of an impending breakout. Peralta has struck out double-digit batters per nine in all three of his MLB seasons, but last year his 14.42 mark was a career-high. He lowered his exit velocity from the prior season by four mph, and his 3.99 ERA hid a sparkling 2.41 FIP. Peralta drastically altered his offerings, throwing his fastball just 65.8% of the time, and introducing a slider that he used 23.5% of the time. The slider itself was not a positive pitch per Pitch Values, but it aided his fastball into becoming a pitch worth nearly seven runs. Maybe it was a product of him being in relief, but Peralta clearly has killer stuff and his new approach on the mound might make him an insane value with an ADP past pick No. 300. That K rate is worth a gamble.