Fantasy Baseball 2020 Sleepers: 4 Pitchers Outside the Top 300 Who Will Help Your Team
Let’s take a short break from focusing on one player at a time, and have some fun identifying potential values suuuper late in drafts. Today, we will take a look at four pitchers going outside the Top 300 in ADP that can end up providing value to fantasy teams. These pitchers should be taken in the final rounds of drafts, and obviously may be cut candidates before April ends. They also have significantly more upside than players with similar ADPs.
**ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros**
Matt Shoemaker, Blue Jays (ADP: 361)
Shoemaker was one of my favorites last season, and he was really making me proud to start the season. He posted a 1.57 ERA and 0.87 WHIP with three quality starts over his first 25.2 innings before shredding his ACL covering first base on April 20, a game in which he’d been cruising. It was a sad sight, because he was making all the gains I’d expected from him based on his “poor” 2018 numbers in similarly limited innings.
It's very possible that Shoemaker’s 33-year-old body is just not built for a starter’s workload anymore, and that he’s accumulated too many injuries to be relied upon in fantasy. Or we’re looking at a veteran who was unlucky in 2019 and was dominating early in 2019 by walking fewer hitters and upping his ground ball rate to more than 50%. Shoemaker’s velocity dipped on his fastball, so he ramped up the usage of his splitter which rated 2.9 runs better than average. His best pitch was his sinker (3.7 runs) and his slider was effective as well (1.2). Not one of his four most-used offerings was a below-average pitch, and his season-ending injury did not involve his arm, elbow or shoulder. At this low an ADP, he’s absolutely worth rostering early on, because it’s easy to get off your last pick if he flounders in April.
Garrett Richards, Padres (ADP: 408)
2014 was so long ago. Richards was electric then, going 13-4 with a 2.61 ERA over 168.2 innings, then following it up with a perfectly useful 207.1-inning campaign with a 3.65 ERA. It has been a baseball tragedy of sorts since for him, as injury after injury have destroyed his career. He managed just 76.1 innings in 2018, and 8.2 last year; in that extremely limited span, Richards has struck out more than 10 batters per nine, which was his calling card during his breakout.
It is unlikely that Richards will ever approach ace-quality again now that he’s entering his age-31 season, but he does have a secure spot in San Diego’s rotation should he somehow remain healthy. With the strikeout stuff he possesses, he may wind up as a useful strikeout specialist in Roto formats. His fastball and sinker were both clocked at 95 mph last season, and his velocity on all his pitches is intact. In 2018, his slider was worth 5.6 runs, and it was a plus pitch last year too (0.5 above average) despite fewer than 10 innings. He’s got his velocity and his out pitch. If he’s the final pick of your draft, there’s nothing to lose even if he does wind up hurt again.
Chris Bassitt, Athletics (ADP: 412)
Bassitt, 31, is an old man in a young rotation. He pitched very well in 2018, but it was only for 47.2 innings, which was the second-most he’d ever pitched at that point. In 2019 he logged 144 innings, posting a solid 3.81 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. His FIP (4.40) isn’t encouraging, but the 8.81 K/9 and 2.94 BB/9 make him interesting, especially for Oakland, an analytically inclined franchise with a record of success turning out strong pitching. Breaking out at 30 years old typically means there’s no potential for a pitcher to be anything resembling an ace, but the follow up to his 2018 performance should insulate him from being ignored at this level. I can see Bassitt being a season-long back-of-the-rotation guy who helps in WHIP and strikeouts and has value in leagues that rely on more ratio stats.
Kevin Gausman, Giants (ADP: 436)
Gausman may be on his last chance in MLB, but despite his horrific 5.72 ERA last season he’s arguably the highest-ceiling pitcher on this list. First off, his 3.98 FIP means he was horribly unlucky last season, and some of his underlying numbers are flatly encouraging. He posted a career-high 10.03 K/9 rate in 2019, while walking fewer than three per nine. His was victimized by a .344 BABIP, when his career mark is just 3.14. He also posted a career-low strand rate (61.2%).
Interestingly enough, Gausman was significantly better in his 22.1 innings for the Reds – 3.17 FIP, 11.69 K/9, 2.01 BB/9 – than he was in his 80 innings for the Braves, despite Cincinnati being a hitters haven. Moving to the friendly, spacious San Francisco ballpark should help him keep the ball in the yard and mitigate his rising hard contact percentage. Gausman is a former Top 5 overall pick, so we can’t ignore it when key markers show he may be figuring things out. Most of the typical numbers look awful, so he’ll continue to be ignored, especially pitching for one of baseball’s worst teams. But you’re smarter than that, and know how to find value. He’s zero-risk at this ADP, with all the ceiling.