Every Team's Most Interesting Player: New York Mets, Amed Rosario
This is the 18th in a series of articles about the most interesting player for fantasy owners on each team heading into the 2020 season. We are going alphabetically, so today we’re going to talk about Amed Rosario of the New York Mets.
Not long ago, Rosario was the crown jewel of the Mets organization and considered arguably the top prospect in baseball. Now, he is being drafted No. 146 overall and 21st among shortstops, and he is projected to bat eighth, in front of the pitcher, for the Mets. Rosario is not a disciplined hitter, and it has plagued him since his call-up. He hit .248 in 46 games as a rookie, and hit just .256 in his first full season (2018), making almost 600 plate appearances. Still, Rosario did offer some fantasy relevance despite his low batting average and sub-.300 OBP because he stole 24 bases, an area in which he will continue to be productive regardless of his hitting.
Last season represented a turning point of sorts for Rosario, as he hit .287 with 15 home runs, and 72 RBI, all career highs, with 19 stolen bases.
It wasn’t quite a breakout, but it kept him on the radar despite crucial flaws in his game remaining. While his strikeout rates haven’t been abominable, Rosario refuses to walk. He’s never posted a walk rate of 5% in the majors, and he’s topped out at 8% in the minors. That is unlikely to change, and because of that his ceiling is probably capped due to limitations in what his OBP can be. None of this means Rosario can’t be a major contributor, however.
Rosario has elite speed, ranking in the Top 6% of MLB in sprint speed in each of his first three seasons. He is easily swiping in the high-teens and low 20s without the benefit of even okay on-base skills. We’ve covered how he’s never going to blow you away with his plate discipline, but even modest improvements could edge him into the 30s thanks to this speed. Base stealing is not a skill to bank on long term in fantasy, but Rosario is only 24 years old; he has plenty of time remaining as a source of steals.
He also has yet to tap into his full potential as a hitter. While he doesn’t walk, he only made soft contact 14.9% of the time in 2019; if he can make a ton of hard contact, his speed can offset some of the losses he sustains by not taking pitches. Power is not the main selling point of Rosario’s value, but he does have pop. He did hit 48.3% of his batted balls on the ground, but again, his speed can negate a lot of the downside from that hitting profile. He also makes a lot of contact. Often, low-walk hitters have terrible strikeout percentages that make them extremely risky fantasy assets because a bad BABIP can destroy them. Rosario is not one of these players. He made contact 88.2% of the time on balls in the zone, and 77.6% of the time overall. As he matures, he should get stronger, increase his exit velocity, and may wind up a .300 hitter before long. All of a sudden, Rosario could be a .300, 30+-SB option and that is someone going way before pick No. 146.
The batting average gains he made last season were real. His .338 BABIP is not out of line for a player with his talent, and his speed. It’s backed up by his minor league track record. If he can keep improving his on-base skills, Rosario may eventually prove himself a leadoff hitter, which would drastically increase his run total and possibly his stolen base total. It’s hard to say he’ll be elite in 2020, but his upside in two scarce categories – batting average, stolen bases – make him a very worthy gamble.