Every Team's Most Interesting Player: Washington Nationals, Victor Robles

This is the 30th in a series of articles about the most interesting player for fantasy owners on each team heading into the 2020 season. We are going alphabetically, so today we’re going to talk about Victor Robles of the Washington Nationals.

Calling Robles a massive bust last season would be too harsh. He slashed .255/.326/.419 with 17 home runs and 28 stolen bases in 155 games (617 plate appearances). That’s not exactly the superstar breakout many were predicting, but it’s a useful campaign, especially since he really helped in the steals category. This season, his ADP is at No. 76 overall so fantasy owners aren’t too upset with his mediocre batting average and RBI totals. That’s probably because he’s only 22 years old, has tremendous tools, and is currently expected to hit leadoff for the defending World Series champions.

Robles will be a benefit to your team no matter what because of his stolen base skills. Even though he was caught nine times, Robles ranked in the 95th percentile in Sprint Speed and he’ll only become more efficient as he gains experience. Where it gets interesting is how he develops as a hitter, because if he can make certain gains there he could become a Round 1 or Round 2 type of asset.

Power is not going to be Robles’ strong suit. He hit 17 last season, and while that helps, it’s not what you’re drafting him for. The move to leadoff could be huge; hitting atop the Washington lineup pretty much locks him in for 100+ runs, to go with a possible 30 stolen bases. But can he reach base enough to stay atop the lineup? He posted a .326 OBP in 2019, and while he isn’t overly aggressive at the dish, he only walked 5.7% of the time, while he struck out in 22.7% of his at bats. He can’t really blame his BABIP for the mediocre average either, as it sat at .310 when the regular season was over. It’s unusual for a player with his caliber sprint speed to have a low-ish BABIP, but he’s been dragged down by the type of contact he makes. Robles made hard contact just 24.9% of the time last season, down from 35.4% in 2018 which was already low. He also made soft contact 24.5% of the time, which seems good, but actually would be better for him to take advantage of his tremendous speed. Instead, he made medium contact a little more than half the time, and made outs. Robles’ average exit velocity (81 mph) ranked just 279th in the bigs, and he was just inside the Top 175 in barrels (20).

All this could cap his upside, since Washington has both Adam Eaton and Trea Turner in the lineup who can lead off, which would shove Robles all the way down to possibly the eight-hole. At that spot, he’d remain a plus in stolen bases, but he’d likely lose a lot of run scoring, RBI opportunity, and at-bats which could chip his 20-HR upside down to about 12-15. There’s definitely risk in Robles at his current ADP, but the reward is also through the roof. Really, your early rounds will determine the wisdom of spending a pick in this range on Robles. If you’ve gone SP-heavy, or if you prioritized power in the first few rounds, Robles has the talent to carry you in steals. The rest would be gravy. If you’ve drafted a Trea Turner or Starling Marte early, Robles might be overkill and costing you gains elsewhere. In the latter scenario, you need those other traits to come to fruition for you to get the full benefit of him at this ADP.