Every Team's Most Interesting Player: Tampa Bay Rays, Hunter Renfroe

This is the 27th in a series of articles about the most interesting player for fantasy owners on each team heading into the 2020 season. We are going alphabetically, so today we’re going to talk about Hunter Renfroe of the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Rays have become synonymous with platoons, which Renfroe should be familiar with. Renfroe has yet to reach 500 plate appearances in MLB, largely because he is splitting time with other players. That doesn’t ruin Renfroe’s value – he hit 33 home runs last year and totaled 64 RBI and 64 runs scored – but so far it’s capped his fantasy ceiling.

Despite his first round pedigree, Renfroe’s career has been maddening. He has loads of power potential. Fangraphs’ Prospects Report grades him 70/70 in RawPower, and 45/60 in GamePower. He’s hit 26, 26 and 33 home runs in the last three seasons, respectively, never eclipsing 494 plate appearances in any of them. He made hard contact nearly 50% of the time he put wood on the ball in 2019, and he’s been inside the Top 50 in MLB for three straight years for max exit velocity. Renfroe isn’t a balanced player by any means, but he’s going to bring the thunder.

He also has glaring warts. He hit just .216 in 2019, and his strikeout rate ballooned to a career-high 31.2%. Renfroe doesn’t walk a ton for a player with his power profile, and in two of the last three seasons his OBP has finished below .300. That’s resulted in a sub-.800 OPS in those seasons despite promising power output. He’s also failed to post a contact rate better than 71.4% in the last three seasons, so this may be who Renfroe is.

The thing is, with enough plate appearances, that’s enough to be a big contributor in fantasy. There isn’t a clear platoon partner based on handedness in Tampa Bay; Austin Meadows is an everyday left fielder, and Manuel Margot is more likely to platoon in center field with Kevin Kiermaier. Jose Martinez is going to be a platoon-mate with Ji-Man Choi at first base, leaving Renfroe with regular at-bats. Second, Renfroe’s batting average was atrocious in 2019, and his hitting style leaves him vulnerable to bad seasons like that, but we cannot ignore his .239 BABIP. Renfroe’s contact is consistently hard, and he barrels pitches at an above-average rate. He’s a heavy pull hitter, so shifts will continue to depress his BABIP ceiling, but .239 is still 24 points lower than his career average.

Right now Renfroe is going after pick No.  250 which is a little bananas for a guy with 40-HR potential. His limitations will keep him from ever being an elite OF option, but power like his is just not found at that ADP. He’s a total steal.