Every Team's Most Interesting Player: Seattle Mariners, Mallex Smith

This is the 25th in a series of articles about the most interesting player for fantasy owners on each team heading into the 2020 season. We are going alphabetically, so today we’re going to talk about Mallex Smith of the Seattle Mariners.

Smith can test the mettle of any fantasy owner. He has the potential to be completely destructive on any fantasy roster, because his floor is so low. He finished last season with a .227/.300/.335 slash line and six home runs, an utterly useless number. He also spent time in the minor leagues, which is never great, especially when said player debuted in 2016.

Smith, however, led baseball in stolen bases, which is worth its weight in gold for fantasy owners. As the game trends more toward fly balls, big home run totals and not giving away outs, base stealing has fallen off a cliff. That means players who steal get pushed up the ranks, and steals specialists carry outsized value – for some – even if they can be ruinous in other categories. Smith is one such player, but he can torture you on draft day because he’s only 26 years old, and has the potential to impact other areas.

Smith will never hit for power, but in 2018 he managed to hit .296 for the Rays while stealing 40 bags. His average was inflated by a .366 BABIP, but his 97th percentile sprint speed means he will always have higher-than-average BABIPs. He also teased us with a hot June in which he hit .274 with three home runs, 21 runs scored and seven steals over 136 plate appearances. Stretches like that are what get fantasy owners excited, and he’s young enough that you can dream on him building on those hot streaks and developing more consistency.

So are we just dreaming, or is it possible for Smith to make the leap from steals specialist to useful hitter? In one man’s humble opinion, we’re dreaming. Smith does not hit the ball hard, and while his speed can make up for a lot of shortcomings, it can’t turn cans of corn into hits. He hit the ball hard just 26.3% of the time, while posting a ground ball rate higher than 50%. He has ranked 267th and 265th in MLB, respectively, over the past two seasons in average exit velocity, and was similarly atrocious in terms of barreling pitches. He also doesn’t make much contact; he made contact 73.7% of the time in 2019, seven points below league average, and his career best contact rate was 76.6% in 2018. If we’re being honest, drafting Mallex Smith is a play for steals and steals alone. On top of that, rostering him means you have to play him daily, withstanding his slumps, brutal on-base skills and complete lack of power. That means tailoring your team around his flaws accordingly, and it’s unwise to build your team around a player with an ADP of No. 163 overall.