Every Team's Most Interesting Player: San Diego Padres, Manny Machado
This is the 23rd in a series of articles about the most interesting player for fantasy owners on each team heading into the 2020 season. We are going alphabetically, so today we’re going to talk about Manny Machado of the San Diego Padres.
There isn’t much debate about whether or not fantasy owners want Manny Machado. He’s inside the Top 50 ADP. But he’s barely inside it, which is odd for a player with a $300 million contract, who until recently was considered worth a first round pick. Now, he’s at No. 48 overall, and being drafted as the No. 10 shortstop and No. 8 third-sacker. Not rock bottom or anything, but a bit of a fall from grace.
Some of it is narrative. Machado has suffered from comments he made about hustling after he was traded to the Dodgers in 2018. Part of it is the perception – and lowkey reality – that he hasn’t hit like a superstar outside of Camden Yards. Machado slashed .273/.338.487 with 13 home runs and six stolen bases across 66 games with Los Angeles. Last season he slashed .256/.334/.462 with 32 home runs and five steals in his first year as the franchise cornerstone of the Padres. Throw in 85 RBI and 81 runs and you’re looking at a locked in, year-long third baseman. But in today’s offensive climate, that’s not quite a superstar.
On the other hand, talent’s talent. Machado is one of the most talented players in MLB regardless of position, and with a little bit of luck it’s very conceivable for him to be the No. 1 3B overall in 2020. The biggest decline for Machado last season was in his BABIP, which fell from .304 to .274, accounting for a major chunk of his batting average dip. Machado’s hard contact rate rose slightly, as did his fly ball rate, and he became a more diverse overall hitter, raising his opposite field contact percentage by six points. He swung at 3% fewer pitches in 2019, while his contact rates across the board were basically unchanged. Manny Machado was pretty much the same hitter he always is last year, but he was hurt by poor batted ball luck. Maybe you attribute that to being in a worse park for hitters, but I think he’s so talented that park factors aren’t a big part of where I rank him. Machado also continues to hit the ball as hard as anyone, ranking in the 87th percentile of exit velocity.
He barreled the ball 37 times, which represented a big drop for him. I’m prepared to treat that as an outlier though; he finished 63rd in MLB in that stat, but hadn’t finished worse than 26th in any of the past four seasons.
There’s another factor to consider when deciding to draft Machado. He can be maddening on the base paths. Machado stole 20 bags in 2015 and 14 bases just two seasons ago for the Orioles and Dodgers. He stole only five all last year (156 games), despite stealing six just for L.A. last season. He somehow stole zero bases in 2016, then stole nine the following year. My point is you cannot predict his aggressiveness as a base stealer, but know that he can do it, and sometimes does. Certain players going ahead of him, like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Rafael Devers, will definitely not offer even the possibility of help in that regard. So if Machado has the same power upside, potentially more upside in batting average, RBI and runs, and could steal 10-15 bases, why wouldn’t you think about drafting him ahead of them? I think that we’ve gotten used to his steadiness, and now view him as steady rather than sexy.
He can help bring home a fantasy title, and to me that’s sexy AF.