Every Team's Most Interesting Player: Miami Marlins, Jonathan Villar
This is the 15th in a series of articles about the most interesting player for fantasy owners on each team heading into the 2020 season. We are going alphabetically, so today we’re going to talk about Jonathan Villar of the Miami Marlins.
Villar, 28, is a fascinating player entering 2020. His career has experienced extreme highs and very disappointing lows, and he’s now settled into a high ADP (No. 33 overall) that no one can be completely comfortable buying him at. Villar is sandwiched between Xander Bogaerts and Starling Marte, and going two spots ahead of perennial Cy Young candidate Chris Sale, because he steals bases. Steals are currently the most sought-after stat in fantasy baseball, largely because steals are going away. As front offices wise up, that knowledge has trickled down to the players. Modern hitters are changing their approaches and swings, trying their hardest to hit home runs. As more players become home run hitters, fewer players want to take chances of depriving their club of RBI by getting caught stealing. In turn, guys like Villar are a hot commodity.
Last season Villar was excellent, hitting .274 with 24 home runs, 73 RBI, 111 runs scored and 40 stolen bases. That campaign followed a 35-steal 2018, and his ultimate peak was in 2016, when he swiped 62 bags. He also rewarded fantasy owners in 2017, who drafted him as a second-rounder on average, with a .241 average and just 23 steals. At this point, it’s safe to bank on Villar to steal a lot of bases. Even in his bad season, he gave owners 23 steals, which is a useful stat. The question regarding Villar is will he give you enough elsewhere to justify it when his ADP climbs?
He is going ahead of Marte, yet 2019 was the first time he’d ever hit 20 or more home runs. Marte has done it twice, and hit 19 as far back as 2015. Marte has a career .287 batting average, whereas Villar hasn’t hit better than .274 in three years. And Villar’s average typically comes with a BABIP of .330 or higher; while speedsters like Villar tend to have high BABIPs, a bad-luck season could completely tank his batting average. Villar does not walk nearly enough to have that sustain a healthy OBP, and pretty quickly you are looking at a massive bust.
His current ADP also prices in the 111 runs, a career high by 19 runs scored, which he set in 2016. Part of his big production was playing in 162 games for the Orioles last year. While Baltimore was a league-wide joke, and likely will be again, they did have a lineup that had some run-scoring capability. That isn’t the case in Miami, so the leadoff spot in South Beach is less valuable. Still, the stolen base upside remains absolutely tantalizing. And playing in 162 games again is an unrealistic expectation. Villar never played in more than 87 games his first three seasons, then missed chunks of 2017 and 2018.
Few players have such a wide range of outcomes. Villar could flirt with a .300 average and 60 steals. He’s done that. He’s also hit .241, and stolen just 23 bases with a sub-.300 OBP. He’s also an unreliable source of power, meaning his bust potential is through the roof if his steal totals fall. Villar is going as a Top 4 2B and a Top 8 SS, and while his upside is there, only those with iron stomachs will be pulling the trigger in the third round. But hey, that’s why he’s so interesting.