Every Team's Most Interesting Player: Los Angeles Angels, Shohei Ohtani

This is the 13th in a series of articles about the most interesting player for fantasy owners on each team heading into the 2020 season. We are going alphabetically, so today we’re going to talk about Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Angels.

This was an easy choice, because Ohtani is one of the most interesting athletes we’ve ever seen. Depending on your platform, Ohtani is either two players or a two-way player. Either way, we’ll be looking at him as both a pitcher and hitter, because he has the potential to be elite in both roles.

Let’s start at the plate, where we actually have something to draw from in 2019. Ohtani appeared in 106 games, all as a designated hitter, after returning from Tommy John surgery. Statistically, he did not appear to miss a beat. He slashed .286/.343/.505 with 18 home runs, 12 stolen bases and 62 RBI. In 2018, he slashed .285/361/564 with 22 home runs, 10 stolen bases and 61 RBI. That’s a bit deceiving, however, because some of Ohtani’s underlying statistics were much more exceptional in 2018 prior to his injury.

Ohtani’s walks decreased in 2019, falling from 10.1% to 7.8%. He also saw a six-point spike in his ground ball rate, which rose to a hair under 50%. That is far too high a number for a DH the Angels are relying on for big power. But there are other great signs. His hard contact rate rose 40 49.6%, while his soft contact came in at just 8.6%. When Ohtani makes contact, he crushes the ball, and he made contact 75% of the time, an improvement on 2018.

Speaking of crushing the ball, Ohtani posted an average exit velocity of 92.8 mph, placing him within the Top 3 in MLB last year.

Hitting the ball like that makes his BABIP -- .354 last season, .350 in 2018 – feel more reliable, and less of a fluke than other players’ big BABIPs. He’s also now more than a full year removed from his Tommy John surgery, so with some luck the Angels may have him for a full season, which we have yet to see. Even with his shortened seasons, he’s posting useful power numbers thanks to home run to fly ball rates in the high 20s. As he continues to acclimate to MLB pitching and hitting styles, it’s reasonable to expect Ohtani to focus on hitting more fly balls. If so, it’s not a stretch to imagine him making a major leap in home runs, possibly flirting with 40 if he gets enough plate appearances.

The risk is Ohtani not seeing as many trips to the plate as we’d like. He has never even hit 120 games in MLB, and he’s unlikely to serve as a hitter in games he pitches; it’s even possible the Angels play it safe and avoid using him as a hitter in the games prior to and following his starts. Lastly, in leagues where he’s treated as separate players, he clogs versatility a bit as he is only UTIL/DH eligible. That said, he has Nelson Cruz upside, so you won’t mind if he is healthy.

Now, on to the mound. We did not see him pitch in 2019, as Tommy John is much more serious for pitchers than hitters. In 2018, he was, at times, sensational. He only made it through 51.2 innings, going 4-2 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.16 WHIP while striking out more than 10 batters per nine. He struck out nearly 30% of the hitters he faced, and showcased two plus pitches to accompany his 97.2 mph fastball.

While he did walk more batters than I’m typically comfortable with (3.83 per nine), but his 3.57 FIP and 3.65 SIERA confirm that’s just the price to pay for Ohtani’s wicked stuff. Ohtani posted a 15.2% swinging strike rate in his first 51.2 MLB innings; for context, league average is 9.5%.

Ohtani has the potential to be an elite slugger, and a borderline SP1 in the same season. The talent is unquestionably there, and his limited track record thus far suggests upper tier production on both fronts. The risks – potentially limited playing time, health, roster inflexibility – are vastly outweighed by what he may do. He is safer as a hitting option, but outside of the known quantities qualifying as aces, there is very little middle ground between aces and mid-rotation depth. Ohtani is one of the few SPs going outside the Top 25 that has reasonable upside of being inside the Top 15 by September. I am not opposed to reaching for him on any platform, but especially if you’re able to use him as a dual threat.