Fantasy Baseball 2018 Preview: Underdrafted Old Men
Hey, we all want to have the next Mike Trout on our team. We are always scouring prospect lists to find that young player who is ready to break out and provide the value needed to push us to the title along with our studs.
But…it doesn’t always have to be a hot prospect. The competition for those breakouts is so fierce that we often overlook the bargains staring us in the face. These next four players are old (30 or older) and being drafted well below where they are capable of finishing up. Be the owner who recognizes this and fills out his/her roster with some old reliables.
Adrian Beltre, 3B, Rangers (ADP: 138)
Beltre is super old (38) for fantasy purposes. That’s reflected in his ADP, which places him as the 20th third baseman off the board. I get that decline is in his near future, but this is not a player who has shown any sign of it being impending for 2018. Last season was injury-plagued for Beltre, but he still slashed .312/.383/.532, walked a career-high 10 percent of his at-bats, and popped 17 homers in 94 games. Beltre’s home run to fly ball ratio sat at 15.6 percent, the highest since 2011. Simply put, Beltre was Beltre last year and his counting stats suffered because he did deal with some injuries.
Now, there are a few things that aren’t ideal. Beltre’s strikeout percentage (13.4 percent) was the highest it’s been since 2009. His ground ball rate rose too, and even though he posted a promising home run to fly ball ratio, his fly ball rate dropped; if he has a poor HR/FB ratio this year, he could see a steeper drop than most.
But with all that said, there’s no reason to drop him all the way to 20th at the hot corner when he isn’t entering 2018 with any lingering injury.
Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees (ADP: 170)
Gardner is still viewed as a “speed guy,” and speed guys lose value when they are 34 years old like Gardner is. But Gardner is more than stolen bases. While you can still expect Gardner to swipe around 20 bags – he has stolen 20 or more bases in four of the last five seasons – he brings a whole host of other categories to the table.
As Gardner has aged, he’s been able to hit for more power in the Yankees’ lefty-favorable park. His 23 home runs last season were a career-high, but he had hit 17 and 16 in 2014 and 2015, foreshadowing his evolving game. Gardner also has a solidified role as the leadoff hitter for the Yankees, who project to be potentially the highest-scoring offense in baseball. Gardner will be hitting in front of Giancarlo Stanton, the MLB’s home run leader in 2017, and Aaron Judge, who also hit 52 bombs last year. Gardner could contend to lead MLB in runs scored. Lastly, Gardner has always been a high-OBP player. He has reached base at a .350 or better clip in back-to-back seasons, and hasn’t showed any signs yet of decline.
Jeff Samardzija, Giants (ADP: 150)
Samardzija is one of the most boring picks you can make, but the truth is there’s a lot to like here. Last season his ugly 4.41 ERA on an awful Giants club obscured what was, in many respects, a very good season. Samardzija struck out almost nine batters per nine, and his K/9 was the highest it’s been since 2013. He also lowered his walk rate to below two per nine, which in turn helped him finish 2017 with a sparkling 1.14 WHIP.
Those are encouraging, and they provide backing to his respectable 3.61 FIP, which is a much better indicator of future performance than his ERA. Samardzija also dealt with a .303 BABIP, a higher number than he’s used to, and an unusually low strand rate, which also contributed to poorer numbers than expected. So what we have here is a very solid pitcher who is saddled with some undeserved reputation knocks that chop down his value; this is great for you, as you’ll be able to draft a No. 3 starter where you should be getting waiver wire fodder.
Mark Melancon, RP, Giants (ADP: 164)
Mark Melancon was one of the biggest free agent busts of 2017, and certainly was not a good time for fantasy owners. Now, he’s a 32-year-old closer on a team that stunk last year who posted a 4.50 ERA in 30 innings. Don’t give up on him!
Melancon didn’t really change as a pitcher last season. He still walked fewer than two batters per nine, a very nice quality for a late-game reliever. Melancon doesn’t have the wipeout stuff of the other elite closers, but he limits self-inflicted wounds and struck out a healthy 8.7 batters per nine last year.
Everything went wrong for the Giants last year, and they are one of the likeliest teams for a major rebound. Ace Madison Bumgarner is back, and in the offseason they went out and added veteran hitters Evan Longoria, Andrew McCutchen and Austin Jackson. This matters to Melancon, because if healthy, he can likely deliver 40+ saves. Right now he is the 19th closer off the board, so I would expect him to outperform that ADP.