MLB Trade Deadline 2017: 5 Stars To Target For Your Playoff Run
The MLB trade deadline has come and gone, but your fantasy league’s deadline probably hasn’t. If you are trying to load up for the stretch run, try getting these star players. There’s a good chance their owner is disappointed in them and might be willing to sell for multiple, lesser players.
All position eligibility is based on Yahoo.
Manny Machado, SS/3B, Orioles
Machado is arguably the single most disappointing player in fantasy this season, slashing .246/.313/.441 with 18 home runs, 53 RBI, and six stolen bases. That is far from what you expect a first round pick to deliver, and his owners are likely very frustrated. If you’re a contender, it’s the time to pounce.
First, observe the obvious; his BABIP is sitting at .246, indicating he’s been highly unlucky this year. After two years of hovering near .300, his current average is due for positive regression. Machado’s strikeouts haven’t gone up by much, and he’s actually walking three percent more than he did in 2016. He’s hit fewer line drives this year, but his hard contact rate – 41 percent per Fangraphs – is actually a career-best. Machado’s issues are a weird dip in home run to fly ball ratio, and a glaring case of crap luck. And if you don’t believe me, click his name and go to his July splits. The turnaround has been happening for a month.
Rougned Odor, 2B, Rangers
Hoo boy. For long stretches Odor has been straight garbage, which is hard to say as I’m someone who stumped pretty hard for him at times. But…even though some of his stats can make you sick – see his .220 batting average and disgusting .688 OPS – but he’s not entirely useless. Odor still hits the crap out of the ball when he makes contact, and he’s cranked 23 homers in 2017, second-best at the position. With 23 home runs and nine stolen bases, he’s not a total trainwreck in Roto formats. On top of the power, his BABIP is dreadful (.234). If that begins to straighten out, he can probably drag his average to around .245-.250, which is tolerable.
Listen, adding Odor is unwise if your team can’t withstand a hit in batting average and OPS; his OBP this year is a rotten .259, and that’s not a fluke. This dude is walking in less than four percent of his at-bats, so he won’t be a perfect add for every team. But if your squad is flush with batting average and on-base guys, but a little lacking in homers and RBI, it shouldn’t be too hard to take Odor off someone’s hands.
Matt Carpenter, 1B/2B/3B, Cardinals
It’s been a quiet campaign for Carpenter, but he’s a very high-OBP player who can slot in at three positions, and bats leadoff. His 14 home runs have been disappointing, but there’s reason to believe he’s capable of a surge. For starters, he’s profiled as the same hitter in 2017 that he was the previous two seasons, in which he swatted 28 and 21 homers, respectively. His average has dropped to .254, but his BABIP drop mostly explains it. That might self-correct. His fly ball rate has actually risen by five percentage points, while his home run to fly ball rate has dipped. Weird. Carpenter’s walk rate is up, his strikeout rate is down, his OBP is identical, and he’s even swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone. I expect Carpenter to finish strong, and it shouldn’t cost you the farm to bring him on board.
Jake Arrieta, SP, Cubs
Arrieta has been far from the dominant ace of the Cubs in 2017, but hidden in his disappointing season are some kernels of optimism. For one, he’s walking fewer than three batters per nine (2.98), which is typically Arrieta’s biggest issue. His 4.03 ERA is unimpressive, and he doesn’t pass one of my major tests – a better FIP than ERA. Arrieta’s FIP is 4.23, which doesn’t portend good tidings. However, Arrieta has a track record of brilliance, and his recent performances are encouraging. He’s tossed quality starts in four of his last five outings, and in the one start he missed, he gave up three earned runs in 5.2 innings. Arrieta’s July ERA is a far more Arrieta-like 2.25, with a 0.84 WHIP. He’s not out of the woods, as his K/9 has dropped significantly each month, but he’s been gutting through this tough year and limiting opponents of late. Oh, and he plays for the Cubs, who can go on a tear in the second half and help him rack up wins.
Andrelton Simmons, SS, Angels
Simmons has evolved. He is well-renowned for his world-best glove at shortstop, but I’ve been boosting his offensive potential – largely unrewarded – for a while and he’s finally put it together. Simmons has slashed .302/.351/.460 with 11 home runs and 14 stolen bases this year. For a player who was mostly undrafted, that’s goddam stellar, particularly in the current landscape where stolen bases aren’t easy to come by. The stolen base mavens like Billy Hamilton and Dee Gordon are true OPS killers, so to have a guy like Simmons contribute across the board is super valuable. However, some may not believe that Simmons is the truth. Take him from those owners who believe this falsehood.