Fantasy Baseball Saviors: How These Unlikely Stars Are Dominating

There are surprise fantasy superstars every season, and 2017 is no different. Fantasy owners who were smart – or lucky – enough to pick up these guys, or draft them very late in deep leagues, are likely near the top of the standings. If you are looking to trade for these players, you can feel safe. I’ll tell you why.

Ownership percentages and position eligibility are according to Yahoo! All stats are as of Saturday, June 10th. 

Marwin Gonzalez, 1B/2B/SS/3B/OF, Astros

Gonzalez has really come out of nowhere, and if you hacked my computer for my pre-draft rankings I never had him on any of my lists. Gonzalez was not on my radar, but as the early season numbers began stabilizing, and Gonzalez’s production wasn’t dipping, I started paying attention. It’s safe to say I believe in Marwin Gonzlez. 

Right now he’s slashing .314/.409/.636 with 12 home runs, 34 RBI and three stolen bases. He’s been absolutely phenomenal, and he can play just about anywhere you need him. If you owned any of the many stars who have hit the DL, Gonzalez has filled in admirably, and probably better than you even expected from your injured star. So how’s he doing it?

His secret has been plate discipline. Gonzalez is swinging less than he ever has before, and he’s making his hacks count. Marwin’s swing percentage has dropped to 41 percent, a drop of more than seven percent in 2016. The most drastic aspect has been in his approach on pitches outside the zone, where he has cut to 29.7 percent; last season he was at 35.7 percent. In addition, Gonzalez has jumped 13 percentage points in contact outside the zone. All of this seems sustainable based on his .314 BABIP; it’s high, but not absurdly so. This adjustment in approach has caused a serious spike in his walk rate (wonderful for OBP and/or OPS leagues), and has accompanied a massive (and likely unsustainable) home run to fly ball ratio. The power will cool, but he should continue to deliver decent pop, good on-base numbers, and above-average RBI.

Michael Conforto, OF, Mets

I’m excited about Aaron Judge, but everyone’s paying attention to him. The Mets have stunk, so Conforto’s 2017, quietly close to matching Judge’s, is going underappreciated. Conforto’s rise is clear; he is seeing the ball better, as evidenced by his career-high 14.4 percent walk rate, and that is helping him hit the ball harder than ever. Conforto’s hard contact percentage has jumped to 46.5 percent, meaning he’s scorching pitches nearly half the time he connects. Conforto is posting a .348 BABIP, which is definitely a little high, but as a high-end prospect who has flashed this kind of ability, he’s a stud keeper. Even with Yoenis Cespedes returning, Conforto’s standing is beyond safe.

Jedd Gyorko, 1B/2B/SS/3B, Cardinals

Unlike Gonzalez, Gyorko is pretty much the same guy he was last year. That’s why I was high on him in the preseason. He smoked 30 homers in 2016 despite hitting .243, and putting up a .244 BABIP. Gyorko has too much power to ignore when he presents such a clear candidacy for positive regression. That’s happened in a big way, as Gyorko is hitting .307 and benefitting from a .367 BABIP. That average is sure to dip, but his power is real, so even as his average drops he’ll still provide above-average power at 2B and SS. Also, he’s proving he’s capable of everyday at-bats, so unlike previous years, Gyorko is primed to zoom past his career high of 128 games played. His home run to fly ball ratio (15.4 percent) is down from last year by half. That said, if he receives more plate appearances, he’ll be able to maintain his home run total.

Justin Smoak, 1B, Blue Jays

Smoak, like Gonzalez, was not a guy I was thinking about whatsoever before the season started. This is Smoak’s eighth season in the big leagues and his career-high batting average prior to 2017 is .231. He carried a reputation as a power hitter, yet had never topped 20 home runs in a season. Simply put, he’s been roster filler for real teams, and absolutely worthless for fantasy. Except now he’s three homers away from tying his career high, and we’re only in early June. He’s hitting .291 with a reasonable BABIP. He’s done it by dramatically decreasing his strikeouts. Smoak has cut his whiffs in half this season, and simultaneously reduced his ground ball rate by 12 percent. By keeping the ball in the air, he’s seen his home run to fly ball rate shoot up, but not to an unsustainable level. Smoak’s power is real, and his BABIP shows that his batting average may not take a big tumble. Smoak is a nice player to target, because he will offer similar production to bigger names, and be easier to obtain.

Jason Vargas, SP, Royals

You’re thinking I can’t be serious with buying into this Vargas revival at age 34. I get it. But I am! Vargas has an 8-3 record with a sparkling 2.18 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. He has a 3.30 FIP, which means his ERA is a bit of a fluke, but still shows he is pitching well; his xFIP is in disagreement, checking in at 4.49, but I’m a much bigger fan of FIP because it involves less hypotheticals. So what’s the secret sauce? It’s simple—more curveballs.

Vargas has a pedestrian fastball, and that’s putting it kindly. He locates it well enough, but this year Vargas has thrown his curve 10 percent of the time, up from three percent in 2016. The pitch has been 3.4 runs above average per Fangraphs, and that’s showing up in his performance. He also has improved his changeup by a lot; even though he’s throwing it the same amount, it’s been 10 runs above average. All of this masks his weak fastball, and proves that he can keep up this pace. You can nab him for nothing in all likelihood because most people think this is going to end. Maybe in 2018 it will, but for now ride him ‘til the wheels fall off.

Alex Wood, SP, Dodgers

Wood is another shocker. He entered the season as a likely reliever, and carrying the identity of a one-time prospect whose career was wrecked by injury. But injuries allowed him a final chance, and he has been downright amazing. The numbers Wood is putting up are beyond useful; they are ace-caliber, and the advanced stats are backing them up. At 6-0 with a 1.69 ERA you’re wondering, what’s his FIP? Glad you asked. It’s a glittering 1.91, putting him in the same breath as the finest hurlers in the sport. He’s striking out 11.25 batters, which is the kind of rate you see from top closers.

The increased Ks seem to be generated by increased use of his changeup. It’s been devastating when contrasted with his 93-mph two-seam fastball. Wood’s leaned on a three-pitch repertoire in which all have been above-average pitches, and all involve sick movement. Make no mistake about it, Wood is a real ace. Let’s just pray he doesn’t go back to the DL.

Greg Holland, RP, Rockies

We can’t ignore Holland, whom was left for dead fantasy-wise last season, and is currently a top 5 RP in Yahoo!, with two of those top 5 being starters. Holland leads MLB in saves (23) by a mile, and has beautiful ratios to justify this praise. He’s not a Fernando Rodney type hanging on by getting messy saves for a middling squad. Holland is out here whiffing 12 batters per nine and posting a microscopic 0.79 WHIP. Holland is benefitting from being the closer on a team with an excellent offense and shaky starting pitching, which leads to high-scoring, close tilts in need of Holland to slam the door. Holland is probably going to lead the league in saves.