Fantasy Baseball 2017 Preview: SP Sleepers, Busts & Overview

It is never too early to begin prepping for a fantasy season, especially when it comes to the long, long haul we call baseball. These are intended to spark ideas, and to give a general outline of the position so that you can fill in the blanks and apply your own thinking to build a team perfect for you.

This is the starting pitcher preview. Because it’s a much larger position, I’ll break up the sleepers a bit.

The Top Five

1. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers: Kershaw is the pitching equivalent of Mike Trout. He’s the best, it’s not close, and the only way he doesn’t finish as the No. 1 SP is because of injury. Last season Kershaw put up a K/BB of 15.64. That’s absolutely ridiculous. The consensus No. 2 SP off the board, Max Scherzer, posted a 5.07 K/BB and that’s an elite number. He strikes out a ton of hitters, he walks very few, and he eats monstrous innings – regularly throwing complete games – in the process. Absolute beast.

2. Noah Syndergaard, Mets: Speaking of beasts, Syndergaard has put up Kershaw-ish production. Check this out: in 2016 Syndergaard posted a 2.60 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, struck out 218 batters, and registered a 5.07 K/BB. And he was unlucky. Syndergaard’s FIP sat at 2.29, and if you had the pleasure of watching him pitch, you can understand that the Mets’ shaky defense hurt him. By next season, Thor will be a first round pick.

3. Max Scherzer, Nationals: Scherzer is the consensus No. 2, and there’s nothing wrong with that. He struck out more than 11 batters per nine, pitches for a team that should help him approach 20 wins, and has consistently been at this level since 2012. That said, his FIP was a 3.24 last year, and he’s a tad more wild than Thor, leading me to give the slight edge to the Mets’ ace. But Scherzer is absolutely fine as your No. 2 if that’s how you wanna roll..

4. Madison Bumgarner, Giants: MadBum does not quite possess the fantasy upside of the other three ahead of him, but he’s guaranteed 15 or more wins on a solid Giants club. He’s a lock for a sub-3.00 ERA, a 9.00+ K/BB, and 200+ innings. Bumgarner is a rock solid fantasy ace, and you can get him around the third round without sacrificing too much in quality as your SP1.

5. Yu Darvish, Rangers: Darvish is a little risky here, but I’ll go for the gusto. The reason for placing Darvish this high is he’s a full year removed from his Tommy John recovery, he posted an unreal 11.84 K/BB in 2016, and he finally harnessed his silly arsenal to the point where he walked fewer than three hitters per nine. If Darvish has mastered his control, the sky is the limit for him.

Mainstream Sleeper Candidates

1. Matt Harvey, Mets: Matt Harvey is claiming he’s healthy, and if that’s the case, his ADP has dropped to a point where he could win you your league. Harvey is going as the 34th SP, sandwiched between Dallas Kuechel and Alex Reyes (out for the year). If he is himself, Harvey is a Top 5-caliber pitcher. Even if you’re worried about his health, at this point in the draft (Round 11) it won’t even damage you much if he sucks.

2. Steven Matz, Mets: Matz is going just a few picks behind Harvey, and he’s suffering from being the little man on the Mets’ totem pole. Matz has to prove he can log major innings, but the signs are there that he’s a borderline ace if he can stay healthy for most of a season. Over 132 innings in 2016, Matz posted a 3.40 ERA (3.39 FIP) with 129 strikeouts, a 2.11 BB/9, and a very repeatable 77 percent strand rate. Matz is a diamond in the rough. Draft him comfortably.

3. James Paxton, Mariners: Innings are Paxton’s problem. He has a frustrating injury history, but if he stayed healthy the chances are he’d way outperform his ADP. 2016 was something of a breakout for the lefty; in a career-high 121 innings he posted a 3.79 ERA, whiffed 8.7 batters per nine, walked 1.79 per nine, and posted a 66.8 percent strand rate. Most importantly, his FIP was 2.80, indicating he should have much better stats. Cross your fingers he can stay off the DL, because if so he’s a prime candidate for a huge breakout campaign.

Deep Sleeper Candidates

1. Michael Pineda, Yankees: I’m still on the train! For two straight years there has been a massive disparity between Pineda’s ERA, which pushed 5.00 in 2016, and his FIP, which was sub-4.00. Pineda is a strikeout pitcher – 10.61 K/9 last year – with good control; his 2.72 BB/9 last year was high for him. Home runs are Pineda’s big problem, but he still has the potential to be a frontline pitcher if he can limit the long ball. He’s still just 28 years old, so there’s time to hit his ceiling.

2. Jeremy Hellickson, Phillies: Hellickson had a very nice year for the Phillies, but he remains a late-round flier. It’s understandable based on his career, but last season was markedly better than he’s ever been. His FIP backed up the pleasant 3.71 ERA he posted, and he made a major change. Hellickson threw a two-seamer 23 percent of the time last year, by far the most he’s ever used that pitch. Should that continue, he will turn in a season that will look like a mid-round pick, and not a late-round gamble.

3. Jordan Zimmermann, Tigers: He was garbage last season, striking out less than six batters per nine and finishing with an ugly 4.87 ERA. He doesn’t have major strikeout stuff, but he battled injury in 2016 and that affected his typically impeccable control. Prior to 2016, Zimmermann had walked fewer than two batters per nine in five straight seasons. In those five campaigns he never posted an ERA over 3.66, and often finished the year below a 3.00. Last year was atrocious, but it’s interesting to see fantasy owners abandoning him completely, when a short time ago he was a borderline fantasy ace.

Beware Bust Potential

1. Cole Hamels, Rangers: Right now Hamels is the 19th pitcher off the board, and he’s been very good on a consistent basis, but he presents more risk than is immediately obvious. Last season his 3.32 ERA was in line with what he usually does, but Hamels’ FIP soared to 3.98. His K/9 dipped a little bit, and his BB/9 rose to 3.45. None of these are good signs for a pitcher who is 33 years old. Hamels also posted a sneaky-high 1.31 WHIP, which is annoying for a pitcher you’re drafting as a Top 20 guy at his position.

2. Felix Hernandez, Mariners: Hernandez is the No. 30 pitcher off the board, and in reality he looks like he should be a late flier. That sounds disrespectful about one of this generation’s iconic pitchers, but the fact of the matter is Felix is falling off a cliff. He put up his highest ERA (3.82) since 2007, and his FIP (4.63) portends disaster. His 7.16 K/9 is far from what we’re used to from King Felix, he flirted with walking four per nine, and injuries are creeping in as well; he was limited to just 105.1 innings. Stay away.

3. Kevin Gausman, Orioles: Gausman is a popular upside pick, and while he was a big prospect, his MLB track record is more extensive than you’d expect. He’s thrown 453 career innings and posted 4.00+ FIPs in back-to-back years. He doesn’t project to walk any fewer than he has already, and his strikeout numbers are good, but far from eye-popping. Gausman will be decent this year, but he’s being picked ahead of pitchers like Paxton or Jon Gray, and that seems like a mistake.

Great: 11

Very Good-Good: 38

Fringe Starters: 30