Fantasy Baseball 2017 Preview: 2nd Base Sleepers, Busts & Overview

It is never too early to begin prepping for a fantasy season, especially when it comes to the long, long haul we call baseball. This is the first of many articles I will write to help you prepare for your season. These are intended to spark ideas, and to give a general outline of the position so that you can fill in the blanks and apply your own thinking to build a team perfect for you.

This is the second base preview.

The Top Five

1.    Jose Altuve, Astros: This one is easy. Outside of Mike Trout and probably Paul Goldschmidt (maybe) no one contributes as well across all fantasy categories as Altuve. Feast your eyes on his .338/.396/.531 slash line. Mix in 24 home runs, 96 RBI, 30 stolen bases and 106 runs. He does it all, and he did it with an entirely sustainable .329 BABIP. Altuve’s power could be fluky seeing as how his previous career-high was 15 home runs, but even so,  he has 50+ SB upside. There’s no doubt that he is the premier 2B to own.

2.    Brian Dozier, Twins: Dozier is a beast, plain and simple. His 42 home runs last year have the feel of an outlier, but at his worst his floor is 20 home runs and 15 steals. His BABIP is extremely encouraging; at .280 there’s room for him to post an even better batting average, which could help offset a dip from 42 bombs.

3.    Robinson Cano, Mariners: Cano is like the Miguel Cabrera of 2B. At one point he was the gold standard, and now he’s merely fantastic. Not much has changed for Cano really; in 2016 he smoked 39 home runs, drove in 100+ and batted .299. He has a fine chance to lead the position in home runs, and he has a far lesser chance of falling off a cliff than Dozier. The fact that he simply doesn’t steal hurts a bit, because most of the ownable 2B will at least give you something on the bases, but you’ll learn to overlook it.

4.    Daniel Murphy, Nationals: Murphy is pretty much Cano if you’re basing your valuation on 2016. He put up a ridiculous .390 on-base percentage, which is even crazier when you realize Murphy swings at everything and only walked in six percent of his at-bats. There are some red flags. He posted his highest BABIP ever (.348) over a full season, and that has to remain high to reach his heights. The lack of walks means Murphy walks the BABIP tightrope. He also cranked out 25 homers, which is 11 more than his previous high. He’s always been known as a contact hitter, so it’s no stretch to envision him returning to the 15-homer realm, which means he’s still good, but very far from Cano’s caliber.

5.    Rougned Odor, Rangers: Odor put up a 33-home run, 14 stolen base season as a 22-year-old. That’s RIDICULOUS. He has problems, like not walking, and fleeting plate discipline, but the raw ability is very present. With numbers like that and being so young, you might ask why he’s not ranked No. 1. That’s because he posted a sub-.300 OBP last year, and that’s unlikely to improve much without the luck of a crazy BABIP. 

Some Sleeper Candidates

1.  Jedd Gyorko, Cardinals: Gyorko is a likely candidate to be overlooked as a one-hit wonder. Folks have drafted him in the past only for him to massively disappoint them, so I don’t imagine the fantasy community will completely forgive him after one season. But there’s reason to believe. He banged out 30 home runs and slugged .495 while posting a BABIP of just .244. If that was even average, who knows what kind of year he could have had? Now maybe this is like Albert Pujols, who saw his BABIP spike to little effect, but even if that’s true his power is real.

2.    Devon Travis, Blue Jays: In the brief time we’ve gotten to see Travis play, he’s been impressive. He has the makings of a .300 hitter with speed, based on his MLB and minor league track record. The Blue Jays have lost Edwin Encarnacion, so Travis’ speed may be unleashed more at the top of the order. Health is a MAJOR concern for him, but if he can stay healthy, he should return tremendous value.

Beware Bust Potential

1.    Javier Baez, Cubs: In real life, Baez could be a stud. He has power, speed and can play incredible defense. But fantasy-wise, there are problems, and they may be masked by his flash and his being on the Cubs. He struck out at a 24 percent clip last year, and only walked 3.3 percent of the time. That can lead to ugly slumps, and it did lead to a meh .271 average for Baez despite a favorable .336 BABIP. Just be careful about getting too excited for Baez, who carries major upside but steep downside.

2.    Jonathan Villar, Brewers: Villar had a magical 2016 in which he stole 62 bases and cracked 19 (WHAT?!) home runs, all while slashing .285/.369/.457. There’s no way he’s repeating that power, and the .285 benefitted greatly from his ungodly .373 BABIP. There’s regression on its way, and while Villar will no doubt be a valuable source of steals, those are contributions will not look like they did in 2016. So beware drafting as a Top 5-7 2B. 

How Many Deep?

Great: 6

Very Good-Good: 13

Fringe Starters: 7